Nel ASA, Plug Power and dynaCERT: Who Will Achieve the Hydrogen Breakthrough? There is Interesting News!

Nel ASA: New Orders in Hand, but Where Are the Profits?

Nel ASA is about to release its third-quarter 2026 figures, but investor sentiment remains noticeably tense. At its current price of EUR 0.20, the share remains close to its annual low of EUR 0.17 and clearly reflects the market's scepticism. Even the positive news of orders from Collins Aerospace worth around USD 20 million to equip submarines for the US Navy and other international armed forces failed to initiate a sustained share price recovery. The reason is very simple: although these orders will be recorded in the current year, they will only lead to actual deliveries and revenue in 2027 and 2028.

The Norwegians' major, fundamental problem is the lack of a clear path to profitability. While the order backlog in the PEM segment looks good, overcapacity across the entire electrolyser market is putting pressure on prices. Analysts have recently been critical, as usual and reduced their price targets, since future capital requirements loom without an operational turnaround. When Nel ASA opens its books on October 15, 2026, management and the figures must show that announcements can finally translate into profitable growth.

From a technical chart perspective, the stock could break out to the upside if it clears the EUR 0.23 level. A move above EUR 0.25 would strengthen the signal, potentially bringing the EUR 0.35–0.40 range back into focus. However, the outlook would deteriorate significantly if the share price falls below EUR 0.17.

Plug Power: Plenty of Symbolism, but Approval is Still Pending

The picture at US pioneer Plug Power is similarly sobering to that at Nel. Management recently tried to instil confidence with a visually revamped website, but stock markets have long since cared only about hard facts, not spruced-up webpages. The share has also recently come under noticeable pressure again and, after an annual loss of over 50%, is trading just above its 52-week low of EUR 1.41. Chief Operating Officer Dean C. Fullerton's planned departure on October 23, 2026, adds to investor unease at an already sensitive and volatile time.

Although the company announced a framework agreement with Arcadia eFuels for 280 megawatts of GenEco electrolysers for the Danish ENDOR project, closer inspection reveals the catch, as so often, lies in the detail. Actual delivery will occur only after a formal notice to proceed, which the market is still awaiting. As long as the final investment decision remains outstanding, the theoretical pipeline of over one gigawatt remains a non-binding declaration of intent with no revenue guarantee. Investors are demanding tangible sales revenue before placing more trust in the stock again.

From a technical chart perspective, the stock appears poised to extend its decline, potentially heading toward EUR 1.30. A move above EUR 1.70 would be needed to revive recovery hopes. For now, however, that level remains some distance away.

dynaCERT: Quiet Progress and an Intriguing Wedge Formation

Without the loud drumbeat of major hydrogen companies like Nel or Plug, dynaCERT is moving forward step by step. The Canadian cleantech company relies on its patented HydraGEN™ technology, which generates hydrogen and oxygen on demand onboard from distilled water through electrolysis. The gases are fed into the air intake of existing diesel engines, accelerating combustion, lowering fuel consumption and reducing CO₂ emissions. The system requires no onboard hydrogen storage and can be flexibly retrofitted. The offering is complemented by the HydraLytica™ telematics platform, which precisely records CO₂ savings and is intended to enable access to the carbon credit market in the medium term.

Operationally, dynaCERT is making continuous progress in the European market. Important contacts were established through partner IPMD following an appearance at a trade fair. In addition, the company plans (subject to TSX approval) to extend its CAD 1.00 million convertible debenture, issued in October 2024 and first extended in October 2025, through October 9, 2027.

From a technical chart perspective, the stock, currently trading at CAD 0.09, remains trapped in a wedge formation. However, a breakout above CAD 0.12 could quickly build momentum toward the CAD 0.15 to CAD 0.20 range. Once the stock breaks free, upside potential could be substantial, with CAD 0.20 potentially just the beginning.

A break above CAD 0.12 could confirm the breakout and set the stage for a dynamic move higher.

Conclusion

In its upcoming quarterly report, Nel ASA must show that the naval orders it has won can also generate profitable earnings in a timely manner. Plug Power remains speculative for now, as it lacks binding construction approvals for the announced major projects. By comparison, dynaCERT presents a practical retrofit technology and sales progress in a still-hesitant but promising initial scenario.