Boom and Setback! Why Rheinmetall Is Losing Ground, Hensoldt Is Benefiting and dynaCERT Aims to Take Off as a Hydrogen Pioneer!

Rheinmetall: Forecast shock and project delays cloud the outlook

German defence group Rheinmetall recently suffered another severe setback on the stock market, alarming investors and analysts alike. After years of record gains (at least until September 2025), the DAX-listed group once again had to abandon its targets for the current financial year. The main reasons for the most recent share price slump to just over EUR 830 are delays to important government projects for the Bundeswehr and to the acceptance of artillery ammunition, which are weighing on confidence in the timely execution of record orders (in the short term).

Despite these temporary obstacles, the core operating business is running at full speed. In the third quarter, revenue climbed by almost a third to EUR 3.15 billion, while operating profit surged by as much as 62% to EUR 553 million. The operating margin improved considerably from 14.8% to 17.5%, underscoring the defence group's profitability. For the full year 2026, management now expects revenue to rise to around EUR 13.2 billion, with an operating profit margin of around 18.5%. The enormous order backlog of around EUR 78 billion should also provide a robust foundation for the coming years.

The market is now assessing execution risks very strictly, something that was not apparent just 1.5–2 years ago, when euphoria was instead enormous and Rheinmetall bulls were wearing rose-tinted glasses. However, experienced industry observers stress that large orders in the defence industry are usually merely postponed and by no means vanish into thin air. Those who view the latest share price losses as an entry opportunity and can cope with the emerging delays will find in Rheinmetall shares a beneficiary of the development of Europe's security architecture with significant long-term potential. It is likely to be a matter of time before the shares trade above EUR 1,000 again.

Hensoldt: Top figures and record orders defy the "industry storm"!

While its larger industry peer Rheinmetall struggles with delays, defence electronics specialist Hensoldt is impressively demonstrating how smoothly profitable growth can work even in these turbulent times. On a day when large parts of the sector came under heavy selling pressure, the company based in Taufkirchen near Munich delivered outstanding quarterly figures. Persistently high defence spending in Europe is clearly reflected in the order books, leaving no doubt about operational effectiveness.

In the first nine months of 2026, group revenue climbed 21.3% to EUR 1.86 billion. This was driven by sharply rising demand for sensor, optronics and radar systems. Adjusted operating profit rose by an impressive 33% to EUR 281 million, improving the adjusted EBITDA margin to 15.1%. Particularly noteworthy is the massive 76.7% rise in order intake to EUR 3.56 billion, which swelled the total order backlog to an all-time high of over EUR 10 billion. Supported by this tailwind, management raised its full-year forecast and is now targeting revenue of around EUR 2.8 billion and a margin of approximately 19%.

Despite this outstanding operating performance, Hensoldt shares are trading sideways at prices of around EUR 81.60. It must, of course, be mentioned that Hensoldt also has an ambitiously high forward P/E ratio. This high valuation has been a constant companion for investors for some time now, leaving little room for disappointment. As free cash flow remains negative at EUR -104 million after nine months and much depends on a successful finish in the final quarter, investors should remain cautious despite the bright prospects. Too much optimism can sometimes be blinding.

However, if the shares manage to break sustainably above the EUR 96–97 level, prices in the EUR 115-120 range could well be possible from a technical analysis perspective.

dynaCERT: Hydrogen cleantech specialist poised for a technical breakout?

Away from Hensoldt and Rheinmetall and the major defence industry scene, a Canadian technology company is working quietly and steadily on the sustainable decarbonisation of the global diesel transportation sector. With its patented retrofit HydraGEN™ technology, dynaCERT strikes precisely the right chord with an industry desperately seeking measurable CO₂ savings. While the share price currently remains at a rather modest CAD 0.09, a potential turning point for the shares is taking shape from a technical analysis perspective.

The innovative business model is based on injecting hydrogen produced on demand through electrolysis, together with pure oxygen, into the air intake system of internal combustion engines. This enables more efficient combustion and significantly reduces fuel consumption. The solution is complemented by the HydraLytica™ telematics platform for precise monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and future access to the global market for Verra-certified carbon credits.

Recent commercial successes in France with distribution partner IPMD, as well as presentations at motorsport events such as the 24 Hours Camions in Le Mans, underline the desire for further market penetration.

On the financial side, the company also secured the necessary business-planning certainty by extending important convertible bonds through October 2027.

From a technical analysis perspective, the shares are currently trapped in a wedge formation, which could, however, resolve to the upside "soon". Should the share price manage a sustained rise to CAD 0.11 or CAD 0.12, a dynamic breakout towards CAD 0.15 to CAD 0.20 could be on the cards. For risk-aware private investors who believe in the potential of the global hydrogen economy and measurable efficiency gains, dynaCERT offers an exciting, albeit significantly more speculative, addition to the portfolio.

Conclusion

Rheinmetall is grappling with sharp forecast cuts and project delays in the short term, but has a solid foundation in the European defence sector over the long term. Hensoldt impresses with exceptionally strong quarterly figures and record orders, but its shares remain in a sideways trend due to the ambitious valuation. dynaCERT operates as a cleantech pioneer in the hydrogen segment, which could offer exciting share price upside initially to CAD 0.20 on a technical breakout above CAD 0.11 to CAD 0.12.