Iran war boosts cash flow! Ride the short-term boom with BP, and invest in the future with CHAR Technologies and First Solar

BP – Benefiting from the geopolitical situation, but putting shareholders on the back burner

The latest escalation in the Iran conflict is driving up oil prices and giving BP a boost for the time being. At first glance, the figures for 2025 appear contradictory. According to IFRS, there is hardly any profit left at the bottom line. High write-downs, particularly in the Gas & Low Carbon Energy segment, are weighing on earnings. However, a look at the adjusted "underlying replacement cost profit" figure reveals a stable business. Operating profit stands at around USD 7.5 billion, with cash flow of USD 24.5 billion. The return on capital remains reasonable at just under 14%. Promising discoveries, such as the recent find off Angola, also underscore the group's long-term potential.

The real news for investors lies in capital allocation. BP is pausing its share buybacks and directing all free cash flow toward debt reduction. By the end of 2027, net debt is expected to fall from the current USD 22.2 billion to USD 14-18 billion. To this end, investments are being kept to a minimum. Only USD 13-13.5 billion is planned for 2026. The fact that the dividend is nevertheless set to rise slightly underlines its priority. At the same time, BP is pushing ahead with its portfolio restructuring. With divestments of over USD 11 billion and the planned entry into the Canadian Bay du Nord project, a leaner, more focused company is emerging.

With CEO-designate Meg O'Neill, who joins from Woodside Energy in April, BP is fully committed to continuity amid change. The future lies in the profitable core business. Oil and gas projects such as the promising "Bumerangue" discovery off Brazil are being given priority. At the same time, the group is divesting itself of peripheral activities. The partial sale of Castrol alone will bring in around USD 6 billion net. The operational basis is already in place. Record availability in production and refineries shows that BP has its day-to-day business under control. For shareholders, BP remains a patient wait for better times, while the new structures slowly pay off. The share is currently trading at EUR 5.587.

CHAR Technologies – Cleantech pioneer sets the course

The valuation of cleantech companies often follows a simple rule. At some point, promises must be turned into tons of production. A Canadian company is standing at precisely this threshold and is now getting serious. With the commissioning of its first commercial plant in Thorold, Ontario, the decisive phase is beginning. The technology is based on a high-temperature pyrolysis process that converts wood waste into two marketable products: Biocoal as a substitute for metallurgical coal and renewable gas. In particular, the long-term purchase agreements for the gas at fixed prices over 20 years provide a level of planning security that is unusual for the industry. The plant is to be ramped up gradually, initially with 5,000 tons of biocoal per year, before gas production follows in 2026.

What distinguishes this model from many isolated technology developments is the partner network. Instead of relying solely on equity capital, strategic investors were brought in at an early stage to provide both capital and operational expertise. Steel giant ArcelorMittal is not only acting as an investor, but also as the primary buyer for the biochar. This is a clear signal after several years of technology screening. Added to this is the partnership with the BMI Group, which is contributing decommissioned pulp mills with existing infrastructure to the projects and has just invested CAD 10 million in the expansion of the Espanola site. The involvement of indigenous partners to secure the supply of raw materials rounds off the picture and significantly reduces classic project risks.

However, the real story lies in scalability. Four projects are currently being implemented or are at an advanced stage of development. In addition to Thorold, construction has already begun at Lake Nipigon, with two further sites to follow. The total sales potential of these four plants is estimated at around EUR 122 million. The financing structure is crucial. The bankable purchase agreements enable project-related debt financing, which conserves the company's equity. A second pillar is also opening up in the area of PFAS destruction. A pilot project in Baltimore has proven that the process can destroy so-called "forever chemicals" in sewage sludge. The potential in this huge market is enormous and is now to be tapped through licensing models. The share is currently trading at CAD 0.25.

First Solar – Strong end to the year, but the outlook for 2026 is puzzling

At first glance, the figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 look solid. First Solar increased its revenue by a good 11% year-on-year to USD 1.68 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations. However, with earnings per share of USD 4.84, the company fell short of forecasts. For 2025 as a whole, revenue rose by just under 24% to USD 5.2 billion. This shows that demand for cadmium telluride-based modules remains fundamentally intact. The balance sheet is well-stocked with net cash of USD 2.4 billion at the end of the year, giving the company considerable financial flexibility.

Despite the strong performance in the previous year, the outlook for 2026 was sobering. Revenue is expected to stagnate at best at USD 4.9-5.2 billion, which is significantly below the previously ambitious market expectations. The company cites various factors for its caution, such as higher costs due to US tariffs, a deliberate slowdown in production in Southeast Asia due to uncertain trade policy, and start-up costs for new plants in the US. Although the operating margin continues to benefit massively from the government's 45X tax credits, without these subsidies, the margin shrinks to single digits. This is a warning sign for anyone counting on sustainable profitability. The environment for the solar market remains complex. On the one hand, First Solar is positioning itself for the future with its focus on US production and technologies such as CuRe and perovskite. On the other hand, delays in approvals for large-scale projects and unclear tariff policies are weighing on customers' planning security. On the positive side, the order backlog for modules worth USD 15 billion provides a solid foundation. Nevertheless, analysts remain divided. Some see the current price correction as an entry opportunity for long-term investors, while others warn of the high dependence on political subsidies, which will expire in 2030. The share price is currently trading at USD 197.27.

The Iran conflict reveals the ambivalent reality for investors. While BP is benefiting from rising oil prices in the short term, the halt in share buybacks reveals a strategic reorientation toward debt reduction rather than shareholder happiness. However, the future belongs to crisis winners of a different kind. CHAR Technologies proves with its first commercial plant that its research has been successful and shows how wood waste can be turned into scalable cleantech assets through strong partnerships. First Solar, on the other hand, is defying the uncertainties with solid figures and a full order book, but also highlights the risks of political dependencies. Those who want to invest sustainably today must keep an eye on both market cycles and structural change.