Gold Stocks – Barrick Mining, Lahontan Gold and Newmont: Balancing Production Costs and Gold Prices

Barrick Mining: Licence secures operations, costs determine margins

On October 5, Tanzania extended the Special Mining Licenses for the North Mara gold mine by 15 years. For Barrick, this is more than a formality. The group can now invest for the long term in the mine, its workforce and the surrounding communities. The state holds 16% of North Mara and Bulyanhulu, and the two partners share the economic benefits equally. According to the company, around USD 5.3 billion has flowed into the Tanzanian economy since 2019. Predictable production costs begin with legal certainty.

At the Mining Forum Americas on September 29, management set a target for Nevada Gold Mines, in which Barrick holds 61.5%, of more than 3 million ounces of gold per year. With additional processing capacity, Cortez is expected to deliver around 1 million ounces over a decade, on a 100% basis. Carlin is expected to remain above 1 million ounces per year for at least another decade. If the plan succeeds, the high gold price could work in the group's favour. However, management spoke of cost management in a highly inflationary environment.

Barrick is being held back at the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan. According to management, better security conditions are needed there before full construction begins. Planning, phasing and financing are currently under review. Things are going better at Loulo Gounkoto. According to management, the group has regained control of operations there, the licence has been extended by 10 years and the ramp-up is ahead of the original schedule. Barrick will present its third-quarter results on November 9. This will show how costs and the gold price have developed.

Lahontan Gold: 11-year mine life and a clear roadmap to the first gold pour

On October 14, Lahontan Gold presented the updated preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the Santa Fe Mine in Nevada. It envisages an 11-year mine life and an after-tax net present value (NPV5) of USD 820.0 million at an internal rate of return (IRR) of 40.1%. The study assumes a gold price of USD 3,600 per ounce, pre-production capital of USD 172.0 million, and a payback period of 3.7 years, including a 20% contingency. In years 4 to 11, the mine is expected to produce an average of 112,500 ounces of gold equivalent per year. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are assumed to be USD 2,250 per ounce of gold.

Management has a clear timetable. CEO Kimberly Ann said in an interview that approval was expected in mid-2027, with the first gold pour scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2027. Production is expected to ramp up fully during 2028. The intention is to finance construction with 80% debt and 20% equity and without a streaming agreement, under which a financier would pay upfront and receive gold deliveries later in return. Eight banks are showing interest, talks are being held confidentially, and an agreement is targeted for January or February 2027. If this timetable is achieved, Lahontan could move from explorer to producer. That would be a milestone, and the company would need to be revalued.

The acquisition of Emergent Metals is intended to expand the project and, according to CEO Kimberly Ann, is expected to close the first week of December. The transaction consolidates West Santa Fe and eliminates the 1% NSR royalty on West Santa Fe and on the 27 York Claims. Lahontan will also gain access to the New York Canyon project. The Walker Lane land package, a significant geological structure in western Nevada, will then grow to more than 93 km². Lahontan Gold reported in a corporate update that it had completed 13,334 m of drilling at its Santa Fe and West Santa Fe projects so far in 2026, discovering additional gold mineralisation, including a new zone at Slab West.

Newmont: Higher profit and cash flow, but less gold than last year

Newmont presented its third-quarter results on October 22. Adjusted net profit rose to USD 2,309 million, compared with USD 1,883 million in the same quarter last year. This equates to USD 2.20 per share, up from USD 1.71. Free cash flow stands at USD 1,912 million, compared with USD 1,571 million a year ago. The group produced 1.302 million ounces of gold, down from 1.421 million ounces a year ago. AISC rose to USD 1,454 per ounce from USD 1,303. Nevertheless, more is left on the bottom line.

The guidance for 2026 remains at 5.26 million ounces of gold. Newmont raised its AISC guidance to USD 1,520 per ounce, and the fourth quarter is expected to be the year's strongest quarter for production. The feasibility study for the Red Chris Block Cave copper and gold project is nearing completion, with the investment decision scheduled for early 2027. The first phase is expected to deliver 3.0 million ounces of gold and more than 850,000 tonnes of copper over 13 years. Development costs are estimated at USD 4.2 to 4.8 billion, with commercial production expected to begin in 2033. It has not yet received any advance praise for this.

Shareholders are already benefiting. Newmont has repurchased USD 1.6 billion worth of shares since the last call, and USD 2.8 billion remains under the USD 6.0 billion authorisation. There is also a dividend of USD 0.26 per share. The record date for receiving the dividend is November 25, and the payment date is December 21, 2026. However, at the Mining Forum Americas on September 29, management described 2026 as the year of the production trough. Thereafter, projects such as Cadia, Boddington and Cerro Negro are expected to drive growth. The coffers are well stocked.

Conclusion

The high gold price helps the industry, but ultimately what counts is what remains after costs. Barrick has legal certainty in Tanzania for a further 15 years, is targeting more than 3 million ounces of gold per year in Nevada, and will present its third-quarter results on November 9. According to the PEA, Lahontan Gold has a good foundation with 11 years of mine life and could, if the timetable works out, celebrate its first gold pour in 2027. Newmont is earning more than a year ago and is passing some of it on to shareholders. All three have done their homework.