Geopolitical flashpoint: Why Rio Tinto, Globex Mining, and BHP stand to benefit from trade wars

Rio Tinto – Strategic focus despite operational challenges

The Australian Prime Minister announced this week government support for the Tomago aluminum smelter, which is majority-owned by Rio Tinto. The plant, which employs over a thousand people, was facing closure after its energy contracts expired. The government emphasized the systemic importance of aluminum production and is now negotiating a long-term, price-stable electricity supply from 2028 onwards. For Rio Tinto, this means that a key asset in the cost-effective aluminum segment is secured for the time being, an important pillar in its current portfolio.

At the same time, under new CEO Simon Trott, the group is pursuing a strict strategic course. The motto is simplification. The organization has been streamlined, and the portfolio focused on the core commodities of iron ore, aluminum, copper, and lithium. Initial measures are expected to save USD 650 million annually. Growth is to come from large-scale projects already underway, such as the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, while strict capital discipline is a top priority. The plan is ambitious but structurally sound.

The demand outlook for the key raw materials aluminum and copper remains intact, driven by global electrification and infrastructure requirements for AI data centers. While Tomago is being rescued, Rio Tinto is demonstrating its technological ambitions with projects for emission-free aluminum production. For investors, the question is whether the market opportunities outweigh the operational and price risks, especially in the volatile iron ore business. In any case, the new strategic clarity speaks for a more focused company. The share is currently available for EUR 68.92.

Globex Mining – An unconventional approach in the commodities sector

Simple business models usually dominate in commodity mining: you either explore, mine, or earn money as a financier. The Canadian company Globex Mining Enterprises breaks this mold with a three-pronged approach. It acts simultaneously as an explorer, project developer, and royalty holder. Instead of focusing on a single large-scale project, the management team relies on a broadly diversified portfolio of currently 265 deposit rights. The principle appears simple. The Company buys projects cheaply, and after upgrading them, outsources them to partners who bear all exploration costs and pay for the option rights. If successful, Globex receives a future royalty, a passive income without further risk.

The latest reports underscore how this model is being brought to life. Among its own projects, the 100% owned Rouyn-Merger project in Quebec delivered promising drill results with broad gold intervals. At the same time, various partners reported progress on optioned properties. TomaGold reported high-grade zinc and gold discoveries on a royalty property in Chibougamau. In New Brunswick, Albright Metals is advancing exploration on the Golden Pike gold and antimony properties, including ongoing drilling programs. Each of these advances by potential partners increases the latent value in Globex's portfolio.

What makes this long-term game possible is a solid financial base. The Company is debt-free and has a cash reserve of approximately CAD 8–9 million. This discipline allows it to act patiently and invest specifically in its own drill programs or the purchase of additional royalties.
For investors, Globex is therefore a complex but resilient bet on long-term commodity demand. Value is not created by a single headline, but by systematically building a pipeline of future cash flows while others shoulder the expensive exploration risk. The stock is currently trading at CAD 1.72.

BHP – Strategic steps in turbulent times

Mining giant BHP remains active even in volatile markets. After a failed takeover attempt of its competitor, Anglo American, last year, which would have offered a considerable premium, the Company has refocused on its core strategy. Instead of pursuing expensive acquisitions, BHP is now consistently focusing on organic portfolio growth, particularly in the future-oriented areas of copper and fertilizers.

This focus is also reflected in its capital management. BHP recently divested a minority stake in its energy infrastructure in Western Australia, generating USD 2 billion. It retains operational control and is using the fresh capital to finance its expansion projects in copper and potash. This "capital recycling" strengthens the balance sheet without sacrificing strategic flexibility.

The latest financial results underscore the challenges. While falling iron and coal prices weighed on overall profits, the strong copper business offset some of the losses. This diversification is proving its worth. For investors, the question is whether the current price-to-earnings ratio, which is higher than that of some pure iron ore competitors, adequately reflects this broader positioning and long-term growth potential. The strategic decisions point to a focus that extends beyond the current economic cycle. The stock is currently trading at USD 61.89 on the NYSE.

Geopolitical upheavals and protectionist tendencies are artificially reducing the supply of critical raw materials and catapulting independent producers into key strategic positions. Rio Tinto is securing its cost-effective aluminum segment through government support and focusing its portfolio on future materials. Globex Mining is relying on a broadly diversified portfolio and passive cash flows with its unique royalty model, while partners bear the exploration risk. BHP is focusing on organic growth in copper after failed M&A plans and is using "capital recycling" for financing. All three companies are, in their own way, well-positioned for this new era of scarcity.