Following Stock-Market Legend André Kostolany: Are Siemens Energy, BioNTech or HPQ Silicon Contrarian Plays?

HPQ Silicon: Contrarian Investors, Take Note

Last Thursday, HPQ Silicon announced a commercial order for its portfolio company Novacium in the European counter-drone market. The French drone specialist Alta Ares has ordered more than 100 AA-NOVA battery packs. They are to be used in the X-Lock interceptor drone system. The order follows approximately six months of joint development and a successful test campaign involving ten prototypes in July 2026. Delivery is scheduled to take place before the end of September.

Technically, Novacium relies on lithium-ion cells with silicon-based anode technology. The ordered 6S3P battery pack, with a capacity of 15,000 mAh, is designed to be lighter than the reference battery previously used by Alta Ares, while delivering at least comparable performance. For interceptor drones in particular, weight can be a decisive factor for agility, acceleration, range and payload. In the future, more powerful GEN4 cells with a capacity of 6,000 mAh could also be used.

Strategically, the order represents another step for Novacium into the European defence market. Alta Ares was selected alongside MBDA for the French ELISA program and also won a NATO Innovation Challenge in 2025.

The order from Alta Ares is part of a series of positive developments in the drone and defence sectors over the past few weeks. Most recently, HPQ Silicon and Novacium delivered a total of 30 specially configured battery packs to three European drone manufacturers for final qualification testing. Prior to that, an initial commercial order for GEN3 battery packs for FPV drones operated by a French regiment had already been announced. This makes it increasingly clear that Novacium's silicon anode technology is moving from development to concrete military applications.

HPQ Silicon is a strategic partner of Novacium and holds a 36.8% stake in the French deep-tech company. In addition, HPQ holds the exclusive North American rights to certain Novacium technologies. And there is even more that makes HPQ Silicon's stock interesting. Among other things, the company is advancing technologies for high-purity fumed silica as well as hydrogen and recycling applications.

Siemens Energy: Strong, but...

Since hitting a high of EUR 192 in late April, Siemens Energy's stock has trended downward. The AI winner's share is currently trading at around EUR 140. From mwb research's perspective, there is still significant downside potential.

That said, analysts continue to view Siemens Energy as being in a very strong operational position. At the Future of Energy Conference, the company confirmed that Gas Services and Grid Technologies, in particular, are benefiting from structural growth drivers such as electrification, data centres, the expansion of renewable energy, and the modernization of aging power grids. The order backlog of EUR 162 billion ensures high visibility over several years. At the same time, Siemens Energy is expanding its capacities for gas turbines and grid technology.

In addition, mwb sees potential in the growing service component of the gas business. As the installed turbine base expands, the higher-margin service business is also expected to grow in the long term. The planned divestiture of large parts of the Transformation of Industry division is also intended to sharpen the portfolio's focus on power generation and transmission and improve capital allocation. For 2026, mwb expects revenue of approximately EUR 44.9 billion and net income of just over EUR 4.0 billion. By 2028, revenue is expected to rise to EUR 57.3 billion and net income to EUR 5.4 billion.

However, despite the convincing operational performance, mwb is maintaining its "Sell" recommendation. The reason is the valuation. With an expected P/E ratio of around 25 for 2027, the market has already priced in very high long-term growth assumptions. In particular, a weaker AI and data centre boom is seen as a risk. Although the recent share-price decline has improved the risk-reward ratio somewhat, analysts still do not find it sufficient. They do not consider the company to be fairly valued until the share price reaches EUR 100.

BioNTech: Following in Moderna's Footsteps?

For BioNTech, 2026 has been a year to forget so far. The announced departure of founders Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci, along with site closures, weighed on sentiment and the stock. Major clinical breakthroughs have yet to materialize. At the same time, competitor Moderna caused a sensation with positive data on its cancer vaccine, developed jointly with Merck.

But could the Mainz-based biotech company now begin to catch up? Last week, BioNTech and OncoC4 presented updated Phase 3 trial data on Gotistobart in pretreated patients with metastatic squamous-cell NSCLC. In the non-registration-intended first phase of the trial, Gotistobart monotherapy achieved a median overall survival of 18.5 months compared to 10.0 months with docetaxel. This corresponds to a significant reduction in the risk of death. The study included 87 patients whose disease had progressed after prior immunotherapy and chemotherapy.

The active ingredient is designed to specifically reduce regulatory T cells in the tumour microenvironment, thereby reactivating the body's own antitumor immune response. According to the companies, safety data to date have remained manageable. More severe treatment-related adverse events of Grade 3 or higher occurred in 44.4% of Gotistobart patients and in 48.8% of docetaxel patients.

The data thus reinforce the hope that Gotistobart could become a chemotherapy-free treatment option for hard-to-treat patients with squamous-cell NSCLC. The ongoing Phase 2 PRESERVE-003 trial—which is being conducted at more than 160 sites worldwide and is relevant for regulatory approval—is now crucial. Only if this trial confirms a survival benefit could Gotistobart have the potential to change the current standard of care in this treatment line.

In an initial reaction, Berenberg reaffirmed its "Buy" recommendation for BioNTech shares. The price target was raised from USD 132 to USD 140. The stock is currently trading at USD 96.

HPQ Silicon seems to fit André Kostolany's investment profile. While the company is delivering results, the stock is (still) lagging. The opposite is true for Siemens Energy. Operations are strong, but the stock has already priced in a lot of that. The correction is doing it good. After a weak start to the year, BioNTech shares could start trending upward again.