E-Mobility in the Grip of Energy Prices! Things Are Heating Up for VW, Porsche, Mercedes, BYD and Phenom Resources

VW, Porsche, and Mercedes: The German Auto Industry Feels the Asian Typhoon

The strategic realignment in the global auto market is in full swing, and the long-established German manufacturers are noticeably losing ground. Volkswagen, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz are under unprecedented pressure to transform, a trend fueled by aggressive technological competition from the Far East. Especially in the once-profitable Chinese market, the established business models of the "Made in Germany" league are being severely shaken. For several years now, domestic premium brands in Asia have also been rapidly losing their former pricing power. Even the exclusive subsidiary Porsche is struggling to find the right path in the electric vehicle market following a massive slump in sales of its former flagship model, the Taycan. To counter the crisis, the group is discontinuing unprofitable models and cutting approximately 5,000 jobs in a socially responsible manner. A dramatic 32% decline in sales in China shows the problems can no longer be solved with old best-sellers. For the parent company, VW, this indecision represents a significant burden, as the Wolfsburg-based automaker is already under enormous margin pressure in the mass market.

The picture is similarly bleak for Stuttgart-based rival Mercedes-Benz, whose most important source of revenue in China is faltering. Recent reports also reveal a drastic sales slump of around 30% for the brand with the star. The passenger vehicle margin shrank to a historic low of about 4% amid aggressive discounting. Management recently had to revise its full-year revenue forecast downward again and implement strict cost-cutting measures. If the company fails to balance drastic cost-cutting with a radical technological overhaul, it risks permanently losing its global market leadership. On the LSEG Refinitiv platform, analysts are extremely skeptical that the German automotive industry can overcome these challenges in the near term. While the badly battered VW preferred shares are said to have at least theoretical upside potential of 37%, Porsche AG shares lack any upside potential. Those who prefer the "Star" can, according to experts, hope for 27% potential. The following applies to all auto stocks: revenue declines, margin pressure, restructuring pressure, and a two- to three-year technology lead in Asia. A tough outlook for the coming years, despite single-digit P/E ratios!

BYD: China Conquers the EU Market for New EV Registrations

The Chinese automotive giant BYD is pushing into the European market with an unprecedented model offensive and shaking up traditional market structures. While established European manufacturers struggle with sales, the Far Eastern conglomerate is recording rapid growth in new electric vehicle registrations. Across all Asian models, its market share in new electric and hybrid vehicle registrations now stands at over 8%. Thanks to an extremely efficient, vertically integrated supply chain, the rising star BYD can offer state-of-the-art battery technology at prices that are virtually unattainable for its Western competitors. Even the punitive tariffs of 17 to 35% imposed by the European Union cannot sustainably curb the Chinese company's expansion drive. Strategically savvy, the company is now increasingly shifting its focus to affordable plug-in hybrids, which are not yet subject to the special tariffs. In addition, BYD is investing heavily in its own production facilities directly in Europe to completely circumvent trade barriers in the long term. With this combination of technological leadership and aggressive pricing, the brand is gaining market share at record speed from Lisbon to Berlin. On the LSEG Refinitiv platform, experts project a 2027 P/E ratio of 9, with EBIT just under EUR 9 billion. However, because of the heavy investment burden, the company is also expected to accumulate over EUR 20 billion in debt by 2029. BYD shares have now erased all of their price gains from the past 5 years and, at around EUR 9 last week, returned to their 2021 level.

Phenom Resources: Gold Discovery with a Vanadium Boost in Nevada

Anyone thinking about electric mobility should also keep an eye on newer battery technologies. From this perspective, the explorer Phenom Resources has two highlights in Nevada: gold and vanadium. The company positions itself as a US-focused gold and green-energy-metal explorer with an unusually broad project pipeline and proprietary processing technology. At the centre of the current news flow is Dobbin, where the company has been conducting a core drilling program since July on a 2.1-kilometre-long and up to 200-meter-wide gold-in-soil anomaly that yields grades of up to 2.73 g/t gold. The geological context is particularly intriguing: The anomaly lies within heavily altered Roberts Mountains carbonates and is accompanied by arsenic geochemistry, structural controls, and rock samples up to 10.4 g/t Au—a pattern Phenom interprets as typical of a Carlin system.

Also noteworthy is the entry of established producer SSR Mining, which initially acquired a 9.9% stake in Phenom and subsequently planned an additional investment of USD 4 million for a 15% stake in the Dobbin project. Phenom has therefore accelerated the originally planned option and has since acquired 100% of Dobbin; a total of USD 2 million in exploration funds and USD 150,000 in cash were invested to complete the acquisition, while a 3% NSR royalty remains with the previous owner. The exploration potential is further bolstered by the fact that approximately 9 million ounces of gold are located in several deposits and mines just 5 to 15 km from the Phenom area. The King Solomon district also brings significant leverage to the portfolio: It features a 9 km² gold-in-soil anomaly with numerous "pathfinder elements" such as Au, Ag, As, Sb, Ba, Hg, and Tl, while historical drilling has long yielded long gold intervals in carbonate rock. Crescent Valley also complements this Carlin story with a Bonanza-style epithermal gold target featuring a quartz vein system approximately 4 km long. In comparison, the South Carlin project encompasses a geophysical target zone 6.4 km long and up to 1.3 km wide.

And that is not all! Phenom has a second strategic pillar: the Carlin Vanadium Project. The resource comprises 303 million pounds of V₂O₅ in the indicated category and an additional 75 million pounds in the inferred category. The near-surface, gently dipping ore body is approximately 35 m thick, 1,800 m long, and 600 m wide, and features drill intersections with up to 1.5% V₂O₅. The concept becomes even more interesting due to the hydrometallurgical vanadium-nickel processing method that has since been developed; Phenom filed a US provisional patent application for this method in July 2026 and, according to its own statements, can recover approximately 80% vanadium and 75% nickel. The company's strategy does not necessarily aim for sole financing by Phenom, but rather for a strategic partner to finance and operate a facility, while Phenom retains a stake through its technology. An additional source of value is the 5% stake in MK Plus, whose vanadium solid-state battery, according to the company's presentation, is said to charge significantly faster and require substantially less vanadium than traditional vanadium redox flow batteries. With a market capitalization of approximately CAD 49 million, the company's valuation remains modest despite its broader investment story; the first drill results are now expected in September and could become the decisive catalyst for a revaluation.

The global automotive sector is undergoing a historic period of upheaval, with traditional European manufacturers noticeably losing pricing power and market share. While VW, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz are struggling with shrinking margins, sales crises in China, and costly restructuring efforts, agile Asian players like BYD are setting the pace of transformation. Phenom Resources stands out as an interesting and dynamic potential mid-term addition to the US critical-minerals supply chain.