Higher Diesel Costs and Stricter CO2 Limits: How Daimler Truck, Pure One, and Ballard Power Are Positioning for the Logistics Transition

Daimler Truck - Tariff Shock in Q1

The first quarter was a tough one for Daimler Truck. Sales plummeted by 9%, with North America (-25%) and the bus business (-20%) weighing particularly heavily on the figures. Additionally, US import tariffs in the low three-digit million range and a write-down at the battery subsidiary Amplify weighed on the results. Adjusted EBIT fell by more than half to EUR 498 million. But there are also bright spots. Order intake exploded by 50% to over 114,000 units. In the US, it nearly doubled. This creates a solid foundation for the second half of the year.

While Mercedes-Benz Trucks grew by 13% in Europe, the North American business declined sharply. The margin there was a meager 5.4%, far below typical returns. This was compounded by negative free cash flow of EUR -445 million, driven by inventory buildup and lower profits. CFO Scherer spoke of the weakest quarterly volume since 2010. Still, management is targeting a North American margin of 7–8% again for the second quarter, supported by the recent wave of orders and rising freight rates.

Despite the poor start, CEO Rådström is sticking to the full-year forecast. The margin is expected to be 6–8% in the industrial business, with adjusted EBIT between EUR 3.2 and 3.7 billion. The acquisition of eStar Truck & Van in the UK strengthens the European business, and the integration of Mitsubishi Fuso into the ARCHION joint venture was completed on April 1. The "Cost Down Europe" cost-cutting program, which involves eliminating 5,000 jobs in Germany, is proceeding as planned and is already providing relief. Those willing to look past the weak numbers will see a company determined to regain its operational footing. The stock is currently trading at EUR 39.60.

Pure One – A well-thought-out technology mix

Those committed to clean mobility can get multiple solutions from a single source at Pure One. The Australian company completed two hydrogen-powered concrete mixers for Heidelberg Materials in April. These are 32-ton behemoths equipped with a 200-kW fuel cell and a CATL battery. The vehicles are awaiting final inspection and are set to operate in the Rockingham area. At the same time, Pure One delivered a fully electric EV70 minibus to South West Community Transport.
This comes with a combination of a solar system and battery storage at the charging station, which significantly reduces operating costs. This is not a massive sales volume, but it shows that the company is delivering while others are still developing prototypes.

The approach to battery swapping is also clever. Instead of hours of charging, Pure One relies on swappable batteries for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. This means the truck is ready to go again in just a few minutes. The first demonstration fleet, called the "Alpha Series," is coming to Australia in the September quarter. The company aims to enter the market with a net price of around AUD 200,000. This is a pragmatic approach, as the infrastructure for hydrogen is still under development, while battery swapping works with existing logistics chains. For fleet operators, this represents a real efficiency gain, and for Pure One, a potential driver of recurring revenue.

And then there is the gas deal. Pure One took its majority-owned subsidiary, Eastern Gas Corporation, public at the end of February. The IPO was oversubscribed. The gas assets in the Surat Basin and the Cooper Basin sit on a geological structure reminiscent of those in significantly higher-valued competitors. The spin-off mechanism is well thought out. The market can recognize the value of the gas reserves separately, while Pure One focuses on its core business. Added to this is the planned sale of the Turquoise stake for AUD 5 million. This means fresh capital for US expansion. The company is financially sound and has no acute capital needs. The stock is currently trading at around AUD 0.059.

Ballard Power - Less Combustion, More Sense

Those who rely solely on fuel cells must be patient. This is evident from Ballard Power's first quarter of 2026. Revenue rose by 26% to USD 19.4 million but fell just short of analysts' estimates. The company's traditional backbone, the bus business, plummeted by 46%. This was due to supply bottlenecks in Europe and inventory adjustments. The gross margin improved to 14% thanks to cost discipline, and operating cash outflow fell by 68%. The rail and stationary systems segments are booming and point to a healthier diversification.

Management is driving the shift away from being a pure module seller. "Project Forge" is building a highly automated manufacturing facility for bipolar plates, set to begin operations in the second half of the year. This is expected to result in lower unit costs and less scrap. At the same time, Ballard is linking new sales to service contracts, backed by operational data from over 300 million km. Partnerships with New Flyer, Wrightbus, and Solaris secure long-term platform deals. Whether that will be enough, however, depends on how quickly the hydrogen infrastructure catches up.

With USD 516.8 million in cash and no bank debt, Ballard has breathing room. Especially since management emphasizes that it sees no need for financing. However, the order backlog fell slightly to USD 112.9 million, and the annual fluctuation range of over 120% highlights the fragile market sentiment. Europe remains a source of hope. Up to EUR 113 million in subsidies could be available, but a final decision on a plant there will not be made until 2027. For investors, this means the direction is right, but the leap into profitability has not yet been scheduled. Currently, a share costs USD 4.16.

In light of soaring diesel prices and stricter CO₂ limits, the logistics transition must be achieved through technological openness and financial discipline. Daimler Truck got off to a weak start this year, but can look to the future with optimism thanks to a 50% surge in orders and the "Cost Down Europe" cost-cutting program; however, it remains under pressure in terms of margins. Pure One is already delivering emission-free commercial vehicles such as hydrogen-powered concrete mixers and is focusing on pragmatic battery swapping for heavy-duty fleets, while the profitable gas subsidiary Eastern Gas is bringing in additional capital. Ballard Power improved its margin to 14% through disciplined cost management and is growing in the rail and stationary segments, but remains dependent on the slow expansion of hydrogen infrastructure and delays in funding programs.