Commodity Stocks in Focus: Kinross Gold, Strategic Resources, and Barrick Mining

Kinross Gold: Short-term buy signal!

Like many gold stocks, Kinross Gold too began to stumble after topping out at the end of January. The slump in the gold price, the stronger dollar and the tense market environment caused by the war in the Persian Gulf did the stock no favours. At the end of January, Kinross reached an all-time high of around USD 38. The share is currently trading just below USD 25. At its worst, it lost more than 35%. In the first days of July, a now short-term, technical countermovement is emerging. Supported by weaker US labour market data that is fueling rate-cut hopes, the gold price also climbed back above USD 4,000 per ounce, immediately giving Kinross a boost.

In the very short term, the gold producer's share has crossed above the 20-day line, providing a buy signal for traders. But it is still a long way to the 200-day line: it lies around 11% higher. As long as the price remains sustainably below this level, the overarching bear market is not yet fully over. The Canadians' share price gains real upside potential once the USD 27 mark is taken. That would break the medium-term downtrend channel and unlock further technical upside. Wall Street analysts have issued a price target of USD 41 for the stock. Should the full trend reversal succeed, that would be the target zone. On the downside, there is important support at around USD 23.40. This is where the most recent swing low lies. Should this mark be undercut on a daily closing basis, an immediate end to the rebound looms.

Fresh operational input should come on 29 July 2026 at the latest. On that day, Kinross Gold intends to publish its quarterly figures. What is clear is that the record levels from Q1 are not achievable given the significantly lower gold price. Nevertheless, it is worth looking at costs. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in at USD 1,732 per gold-equivalent ounce sold. In the first quarter, 492,563 gold-equivalent ounces were produced. If costs have not risen significantly, Kinross will book a per-ounce profit margin of more than USD 2,000. For the full year, the company aims to mine around 2.0 million gold-equivalent ounces at calculated AISC averaging USD 1,730 per ounce.

Strategic Resources: Geopolitics changes everything

Geopolitics is currently dominating developments, particularly when it comes to raw-material deposits. Whether rare earths, tungsten, antimony or other specialty metals: for the most part, the People's Republic of China controls mining and production. These dependencies have helped Beijing hold its ground in the US trade war. But the US is working on its own supply chain, which will take years. And Washington's partners, too, are increasingly betting on developing their own deposits. On the one hand, there is the opportunity to take over the position of other suppliers. On the other, one reduces one's own dependencies. For investors, precisely such companies offer the opportunity for high profits over the medium- to long-term.

Strategic Resources also belongs to this category of companies. The company is developing the BlackRock deposit in the Canadian province of Québec. It holds considerable quantities of high-purity iron. On top of that, critical specialty metals such as titanium and vanadium are found there. In the region, the company can rely on cheap, sustainable hydropower and an established infrastructure for mining companies.

Management, however, wants to become more than a mining company and plans to refine the material on the property itself. There is a geological peculiarity here: the ore consists of a vanadium-titanium magnetite, so that high-purity iron is obtained without much effort during processing. For this high-quality material, Strategic can command significantly higher selling prices. According to the existing feasibility study, an annual production of 526,000 tonnes of pig iron is possible. In the next processing step, Strategic Resources also plans to produce iron pellets. Here the goal is to reach around 4 million tonnes per year. With these Direct Reduction Grade pellets, the company is targeting modern electric arc furnaces in the steel industry. Without them, a switch to "green steel" is barely possible.

CEO Sean Cleary explained the company's plans at the IIF:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha8A2-FPIwk

The pellets are to be produced in a dedicated facility at the Port of Saguenay, Québec. With the deep-sea port there, Strategic Resources can, on the one hand, reach customers in Europe via the St. Lawrence River. On the other hand, it has access to the US market via the Great Lakes. Financially, this is a huge feat for a small company with a market value of around CAD 17 million. That is why it has brought a strong partner on board in commodities trader Javelin Global Commodities. The latter will market the entire production. In addition, it is providing a USD 150 million working-capital credit line.

In this geopolitical environment, Strategic Resources appears to be backing the right horse. The stock could become one of the growth names in the years ahead.

Barrick Mining: Stock offers opportunities again

With the change in sentiment in the commodities sector, Barrick Mining too is moving back into focus. The world's third-largest gold producer was punished, like many stocks in the sector. Lower gold prices, after all, translate directly into declining profits. The company, however, is in a relaxed cost situation. In the first quarter, they had to spend USD 1,708 to mine one gold-equivalent ounce. At current gold prices, there is therefore still plenty of room for surpluses. In other respects, too, the company is well positioned. With a net cash position of USD 2.4 billion, Barrick can act strategically.

And these are likely to be the drivers for the second half of the year as well. Barrick continues to plan the spin-off of its gold business. The mines in North America, particularly in Nevada and the Caribbean, are to be spun off into a separate company and taken public. The remaining business, that is, above all copper mines and projects in Africa and Pakistan, would then constitute the new Barrick. Analysts estimate that the two companies together are worth considerably more than Barrick's current market value. At present, the market capitalization is equivalent to around EUR 55 billion. Since the top at the end of January, the share has lost about a third of its value. The current sideways movement therefore offers an opportunity to get in.

Kinross Gold is a low-valued gold producer that, like Barrick Mining, would benefit strongly from a comeback in the gold price. At Barrick, the spin-off plans could provide additional momentum. With Strategic Resources, investors are, in turn, betting on opportunities arising from the geopolitical upheavals of recent years. The low valuation is ideal for risk-aware investors.