August 19th, 2026 | 07:10 CEST
China is going for gold! Is the next rally about to begin for Lahontan Gold, Barrick and Pan American Silver?
Geopolitical tensions, doubts about traditional reserve currencies, and central bank purchases are keeping the price of gold above USD 4,000 per ounce. China, in particular, is sending signals. The People's Republic's central bank increased its gold reserves to 2,346 metric tons by mid-year. At the same time, several of the country's major banks are closing off certain channels for private trading in "paper gold" and leveraged precious metals contracts. High precious metals prices translate into high profits and cash flows for producers such as Barrick Mining and Pan American Silver, and are also leading to rising dividends for shareholders. At Barrick, the path is also clear for an IPO of its North American gold assets by the end of the year, which should unlock hidden value. Developers like Lahontan Gold offer significantly more leverage. Lahontan is in the process of reactivating the formerly producing Santa Fe Mine in Nevada, which, according to the latest news, holds approximately 2.4 million ounces of gold equivalent. The preliminary economic assessment, expected by the end of September, could be the breakthrough the stock needs.
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Carsten Mainitz
ISIN:
LAHONTAN GOLD CORP | CA50732M1014 | TSXV: LG , OTCQB: LGCXF , BARRICK MINING CORPORATION | CA06849F1080 | NYSE: B , TSX: ABX , PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP | CA6979001089 | NYSE: PAAS , TSX: PAAS
Table of contents:
Author
Carsten Mainitz
The native Rhineland-Palatinate has been a passionate market participant for more than 25 years. After studying business administration in Mannheim, he worked as a journalist, in equity sales and many years in equity research.
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Lahontan Gold: Mineral Resource Estimate Up 22%
The company is in a pivotal phase of its development. Currently, the Canadian firm is making the transition from an explorer to a producer along a clearly defined roadmap. Positive study results, progress on permits, and a high gold price are acting as catalysts.
At the center of its activities is the 28 km² flagship Santa Fe project in the US state of Nevada, located within the well-known Walker Lane Trend. In addition, the company recognizes significant potential in the West Santa Fe satellite project as well as in more recent discoveries such as Slab West and Calvada East.
Historically, Santa Fe produced 359,200 ounces of gold and 702,100 ounces of silver between 1988 and 1995. Reactivating a former producing mine offers several advantages over a completely new project. Data, geology, mining methods and site conditions are clearer and more reliable. In addition, the existing infrastructure can be utilized. Nevada is already recognized as one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world.
The Canadian company recently published a new mineral resource estimate for the Santa Fe project based on 1,275 drill holes totalling over 136,000 m. The calculated total is approximately 2.385 million ounces of gold equivalent, divided almost evenly into 1,195,000 indicated ounces and 1,190,000 inferred ounces. Average grades reach 0.78 grams of gold equivalent per metric ton for the indicated resources and 0.61 grams for the inferred resources. Overall, there has been a significant 22% increase compared to the last mineral resource estimate from 2024.
An updated preliminary economic assessment (PEA) is expected by the end of September. This is an important milestone, as it will provide an indication of the project's value and other key parameters. The 2024 study calculated a post-tax net present value of approximately USD 200 million based on a gold price of USD 2,705 per ounce. Now that the reserves have increased—and, in particular, given the rise in gold prices—a significantly higher new project value appears realistic. The projected capital requirement of approximately USD 135 million is moderate and is also expected to be financed primarily through debt.
Currently, with a share price of around CAD 0.38, the company is valued at approximately CAD 162 million or USD 117 million. Positive news flow leading up to the planned production start in late 2027/early 2028 should drive momentum for the shares.
Barrick Mining: Green Light for IPO of North American Assets—Re-rating on the Horizon?
A potential catalyst for Barrick is the initial public offering (IPO) of its North American gold operations, targeted for year-end. In this regard, a major hurdle has recently been cleared: the disputes with the industry leader and joint venture partner, Newmont, have been resolved. Now, the US company has given the green light for the IPO.
The asset portfolio of the IPO candidate "North American Barrick" includes a 61.5% stake in Nevada Gold Mines and a 40% stake in Pueblo Viejo (Dominican Republic), with Newmont holding the remaining shares in each case. Additionally, further transactions are taking place in the run-up to the IPO. Barrick is contributing the Fourmile project, and Newmont is contributing the Fiberline and Mike projects to Nevada Gold Mines. In addition, Newmont is paying USD 1.95 billion as a value adjustment to the Canadians.
As a result, Barrick remains the majority shareholder, and Newmont holds the respective minority stakes at the project level. The Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, founded in 2019, is the largest gold producer in the US, producing 2.59 million ounces of gold last year. According to company announcements, the expansion of the joint venture means that nearly 100 million ounces of gold are now estimated to lie in the ground at Nevada Gold Mines alone.
Barrick's stock is currently trading at around CAD 59 or USD 42.50. This means the market values the gold producer at a market capitalization of around USD 70 billion, with a 2026 P/E ratio of 12.1 and 9.6 for 2027. On average, analysts estimate a price target of just under USD 47 per share. Market observers estimate the value of the potential IPO candidate at over USD 40 billion, in which Barrick intends to sell only a minority stake.
Pan American Silver: Shareholder-Friendly Dividend Policy
The company has an international portfolio of silver and gold mines. With the acquisition of MAG Silver, completed in 2025, it added a 44% stake in the high-grade Juanicipio mine in Mexico. In the second quarter, Pan American produced 6.47 million ounces of silver and 165,900 ounces of gold on an attributable basis.
Bottom line: the company earned USD 305 million, which was almost entirely returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. With a share price of just under CAD 67 (USD 48), the company—with a market capitalization of around USD 20 billion—is no longer a lightweight. Furthermore, its valuation multiples are moderate. Analysts see significant upside potential of nearly 40% over the next 12 months.
Pan American Silver and Barrick are benefiting from persistently high precious metal prices. This is once again evident in the latest quarterly data. Shareholders are sharing in the company's success through dividends and share buybacks. The upcoming IPO of the North American gold assets could boost Barrick's share price. Lahontan Gold has a whole range of catalysts. The updated PEA will be published by the end of September, which is an important milestone on the path to the planned start of production in late 2027 or early 2028.
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