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November 7th, 2023 | 07:00 CET

Caution: New Corona wave ahead? BioNTech, Pfizer, Cardiol Therapeutics and MorphoSys on the performance test bench

  • Biotechnology
  • Pharma
  • Covid19
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Smouldering lawsuits from vaccinated patients experiencing severe side effects have caused investors to doubt BioNTech and Pfizer in recent months. Will the plaintiffs be successful in court? This is rather unlikely, as the vaccine manufacturers can always invoke the time component in the fight against the pandemic. After all, what the WHO and all governments wanted was delivered: A quick solution! Moreover, these vaccines were finally approved by well-known health institutes. The biotech investment segment will become exciting again as winter approaches. The infection figures with the new coronavirus variants are rising noticeably again, and around 15% of the population wishes to get vaccinated. Where are the opportunities for investors?

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien
ISIN: PFIZER INC. DL-_05 | US7170811035 , BIONTECH SE SPON. ADRS 1 | US09075V1026 , CARDIOL THERAPEUTICS | CA14161Y2006 , MORPHOSYS AG O.N. | DE0006632003

Table of contents:

    BioNTech and Pfizer - Deliveries of the new vaccines are underway

    Whether Omicron, Arcturus, Eris or Pirola - they are all proper names of the new coronavirus variants that the Robert Koch Institute continues to have actively on the radar. In October, the 7-day incidence was 17 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Large sections of the population are not interested in this survey or anything to do with pandemics for the time being - they are waiting to see how things develop. That is because the masses have come to terms with the topic and do not want to have to think about new horror scenarios.

    Of course, biotech companies are staying close to the action. As the "winners of the pandemic", they currently have billions in their bank accounts and are simply continuing to research and develop the familiar. On September 1, BioNTech and Pfizer received approval for their vaccine adapted to the coronavirus variant XBB.1.5. The subsequent variants are also covered by this vaccine. According to the Federal Ministry of Health, 11.7 million doses are already in stock at the central warehouse. So, business is already picking up again for the well-known protagonists.

    A look at the shares of the vaccine manufacturers reveals the 52-week low of EUR 86.7 for BioNTech shares. Fundamentally, sales of around EUR 4.4 billion are expected for 2023, and the market capitalization of the debt-free company is EUR 21.4 billion, just above the cash level of EUR 17.7 billion. Pfizer's share price is also trading near its 5-year low, with a 2023 P/E ratio of 20 and a dividend yield of over 5%. The stock is historically cheap. The medium-term risk in both stocks is manageable.

    Cardiol Therapeutics - The next buying wave ahead

    Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. is a Canadian biotechnology company specializing in the research and clinical development of innovative therapies for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. The Company's promising product candidate, CardiolRx™ (cannabidiol), is a pharmaceutically manufactured oral solution formulation developed specifically for use in heart disease.

    Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of heart problems has skyrocketed. Cardiol Therapeutics is strategically moving in the right direction because the active ingredient formulation CardiolRx™ blocks the activation of the inflammasome signaling pathway, which is known to play a significant role in inflammation and fibrosis associated with myocarditis, pericarditis and heart failure.

    Cardiol Therapeutics has now reported to have exceeded its 50% targeted patient enrollment for its Phase II open-label pilot study (MAvERIC-Pilot), investigating the safety, tolerability and efficacy of CardiolRx™ in patients with recurrent pericarditis. In addition to standard safety assessments, the study is designed to evaluate improvement in objective measures of this rare disease and, during an extension period, assess the feasibility of weaning concomitant background therapy, including corticosteroids, while taking CardiolRx™.

    The performance of Cardiol's stock is quite enjoyable, with a 51% increase in just 12 months. While the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index is lagging with a good 5% gain, the Canadians can show a significant jump in performance. In addition, the Company still had CAD 44.9 million in cash as of June 30. A capital increase is, therefore, currently not necessary. The story continues!

    MorphoSys - Cover, Cover, Cover

    The short sellers of MorphoSys shares have probably made a real gamble. After the sell-off to EUR 12 in December 2022, the share price continued to head north in a volatile fashion. At its peak, 11.7% of the outstanding capital was sold short, a record figure for the German stock market landscape.

    Now, however, the story is going the other way around, as MorphoSys is very much in the spotlight with its lead product, pelabresib. As the Munich-based company recently announced, detailed Phase III data from the MANIFEST-2 study of the myelofibrosis drug pelabresib will be presented in an oral presentation at the 65th annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology in San Diego on December 10. Initial results are expected to be released in the coming weeks leading up to the event, and groundbreaking results are anticipated.

    The share is, therefore, red-hot and is rising upwards every day, causing short sellers to break out in a cold sweat. It has almost tripled from its low point, but the value began at EUR 127. So, the stock is being covered for all its worth. Yesterday, from a technical chart perspective, the EUR 30 mark was also breached, and the Q3 report is expected on November 15. Very speculative - but promising! Work with a stop-loss of around EUR 27.

    The Cardiol share price is showing strength. It has clearly outperformed Pfizer and BioNTech, even outpacing the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index. Source: Refinitiv Eikon from 06.11.2023

    The biotech sector is currently very indifferent. The high interest rates have pushed the industry index NBI down considerably. Only the companies that are performing well are able to rise at the moment. BioNTech and Pfizer are still on the sidelines from a technical perspective, while Cardiol Therapeutics and MorphoSys, in the view of momentum and trend investors, still hold the potential for further gains.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a "Transaction"). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
    In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
    For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

    Related comments:

    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on November 30th, 2023 | 07:10 CET

    Biotech Alert! Morphosys, Bayer, BioNTech and Defence Therapeutics

    • Biotechnology
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    Morphosys is not for the faint-hearted. After unclear study results, the stock gave up its annual gains within a few days. Analysts are also divided on what the future holds. On December 10, the study details will be released, hopefully shedding light on the situation. Bayer shareholders are currently seeing dark clouds. The stock plummeted from EUR 40 to EUR 30 in a short time. Is the dividend now at risk, or is the entire company in jeopardy? There is a slew of positive news for Defence Therapeutics. Can the stock break out of its sideways trend? A potential partner for the Canadians could be BioNTech. The German biotech favourite is working with full coffers on cancer vaccines. However, analysts remain cautious.


    Commented by Armin Schulz on November 29th, 2023 | 06:30 CET

    MorphoSys, Cardiol Therapeutics, Bayer - Where will the rebound start first?

    • Biotechnology
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    2023 was a challenging year for pharmaceutical and biotech companies. After the boom years of the Corona pandemic, many companies went into a tailspin. But not just vaccine manufacturers were hit; others were dragged down too. The markets are currently volatile. MorphoSys has seen a peak gain of 145% since the beginning of the year - but is currently only up 35%. Cardiol Therapeutics has also gained over 140% and has recently consolidated. The share is currently up 74% since the beginning of the year. Only Bayer's performance curve is pointing downwards. The share is currently worth 34% less than on January 2. We look at where the rebound will start first after the consolidations.


    Commented by André Will-Laudien on November 27th, 2023 | 07:00 CET

    Turnaround Special: 60 billion financial hole - Not with us! TUI, Desert Gold, Bayer and Lufthansa - Get in now!

    • Mining
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    • travel
    • Pharma

    When the stock market is booming almost every day, it is easy to lose sight of the loss-makers of 2023. But it does not have to continue like this! The market regularly rotates through segments, so today's losers will soon be the winners again. This is already evident with TUI and Lufthansa, who are slowly emerging from the Corona shock. Bayer is halting a promising drug and still has to deal with legal disputes. The current situation and the rising gold trend speak in favor of Desert Gold. Let's take a look at the values of tomorrow.