Cancer remains the hottest bet in the pharmaceutical market: Bayer, Vidac Pharma, and Pfizer are competing for the next generation of therapies

Bayer: Operational Momentum

Oncology remains Bayer's key source of hope in the pharmaceutical business for 2026. In May, the company announced the presentation of 16 abstracts at the ASCO Annual Meeting, including the first Phase II results from the ARACOG study, which compares Nubeqa with enzalutamide in advanced prostate cancer. Such conference data provide investors with important insights into the robustness of the late-stage clinical pipeline. The company has strategically aligned its pharmaceuticals division for long-term growth in oncology, cardiology, and kidney diseases. The confirmed full-year outlook, with currency-adjusted revenue growth of 0–3% and an EBITDA margin of 23–25%, shows that the pharmaceuticals division is performing well.

The latest announcements from June 2026 underscore Bayer's focus on innovation. The collaboration with Iambic on AI-driven drug discovery and the full acquisition of Perfuse Therapeutics for up to USD 2.45 billion strengthen the pharmaceutical pipeline. FDA approval for the low-dose MRI contrast agent Gadoquatrane and the confirmed marketing authorization application for Asundexian in Europe demonstrate progress in radiology and stroke prevention. The expansion of the open innovation network in China aligns with the global strategy. However, operational successes and legacy legal issues remain inextricably linked. The glyphosate issue continues to cast a shadow over the group's development.

Provisions for litigation now total EUR 11.8 billion, with expected cash outflows of EUR 5 billion this year alone. The Supreme Court's decision in the Durnell case at the end of June 2026 will set the tone. Analysts estimate that a ruling in Bayer's favour could set a precedent for about 80% of the pending glyphosate lawsuits. Net financial debt is expected to rise to around EUR 33 billion, while free cash flow is expected to be negative, ranging from EUR -1.5 billion to EUR -2.5 billion. For equity investors, this paints a mixed picture. The share is currently trading at around EUR 38.07.

Vidac Pharma: Recruitment Completed – Milestone Reached

The biotech group specializing in oncological dermatology has completed patient recruitment for its Phase 2b study of VDA-1102 in actinic keratosis as scheduled. This brings an important data point closer. The company has enrolled all 39 planned subjects in the randomized trial. This is an operational success that stabilizes the remaining timeline. The follow-up period for patients is expected to last approximately 3 months. The results will be published thereafter. To date, no serious treatment-related adverse events have been reported, which is a positive sign. Analysis of the data will show whether the company's metabolic approach is effective in this patient group as well.

The EMA approval for the German study underscores the program's progress. Approval of the Phase 2 study is not a given. It confirms that the investigational drug and the associated protocol meet the scientific and ethical requirements of the EU Clinical Trials Regulation. For Vidac Pharma, this step marks the transition from preclinical feasibility to controlled efficacy testing in humans. In addition, the recently granted patent in Canada expands the international protection portfolio. The intellectual property extends through 2045 and now comprises seven global patent families.

Analysts at Sphene Capital reaffirm their "Buy" recommendation with a fair value of EUR 4.20 per share. The sum-of-the-parts model values the two pipeline candidates, VDA-1102 (AK and CTCL), separately and does not currently include the preclinical candidate VDA-1275. Should this candidate advance to the clinical phase, it would present significant valuation potential. Recent progress in European expansion, including advanced discussions regarding joining Quest for Health, underscores management's plan to position the company for partnerships and access to capital markets. The coming months will show whether the promising approach holds up in the trial data. The share is currently trading at around EUR 0.50.

Pfizer: A Mix of Pros and Cons

Pfizer's oncology division remains the key value driver in 2026. The division has made scientific and regulatory progress in this area, but it has not yet become the revenue driver that was hoped for. At the ASCO Annual Meeting, Pfizer presented promising data on LORBRENA for lung cancer, a BRAFTOVI-based combination for metastatic colorectal cancer, and TALZENNA plus XTANDI for prostate cancer. The FDA approval of BRAFTOVI for colorectal cancer and the accelerated review designation for PADCEV plus Keytruda for muscle-invasive bladder cancer demonstrate that these drugs have significant potential. The FDA's decision on PADCEV in August will be decisive. The CROWN study on LORBRENA continued to show remarkable results after 7 years. Nevertheless, the key question remains whether these clinical advances will translate into commercial success.

On May 5, Pfizer reported first-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Revenue rose 5% year-over-year to USD 14.45 billion, significantly exceeding consensus estimates of around USD 13.79 billion. On an adjusted basis, the company reported earnings per share of USD 0.75, also above analysts' expectations of USD 0.72 to USD 0.73. The growth came from the core operating business. Excluding the COVID-19 products Comirnaty and Paxlovid, revenue grew by 7%. Recently launched or acquired products performed particularly well, with an operating increase of 22%. PADCEV, which is used in bladder cancer treatment, recorded a 39% increase in revenue, while Nurtec ODT/Vydura saw a 41% increase.

Less encouraging from an investor's perspective is likely to be the recent escalation in relations with the German government. In a letter to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, CEO Albert Bourla warned that the planned budget cuts in the healthcare sector were jeopardizing planning certainty. Pfizer is therefore reviewing the timing and scope of certain planned investments in Germany. This move is not an isolated incident. Eli Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim have already scaled back or canceled projects. Added to this is the surprise departure of CFO Dave Denton, who is leaving the company in August. Interim CFO Cecile Guegan will take over while Pfizer searches for a successor. Management reaffirmed its full-year forecast for 2026. The share is currently trading at around USD 25.08.

The oncology market remains the most promising area in the pharmaceutical industry. Bayer is weathering the heavy burden of glyphosate litigation with a strong pipeline and operational momentum. Vidac Pharma stands out as a focused pioneer with an innovative metabolic approach. The smooth completion of its recruitment lays the foundation for potential value growth. Pfizer delivers solid figures and strong data, but must navigate political setbacks and leadership changes.