BP, Globex Mining, Rio Tinto: The Winners of the 2026 Commodities Boom

BP - Facing a Crucial Test

BP is turning the green tables. Under pressure from hedge funds like Elliott and a weakening stock price compared to competitors, the company is now pumping USD 10 billion annually into oil and gas projects—20% more than before. Spending on the energy transition, by contrast, is being slashed from USD 7 billion to just USD 2 billion. The old production target for 2030 is history. As early as January, billions in write-downs on the low-carbon portfolio were due. Added to this are sales such as the Gelsenkirchen refinery or the Castrol stake, which together have already brought in over USD 11 billion. And in Namibia, BP has secured the operator role for three exploration licenses.

Things get serious on April 23. Two influential proxy advisors (ISS and Glass Lewis) recommend voting against the board of directors. Specifically, the vote is against the abolition of old climate reporting requirements. Legal & General also intends to support a critical resolution put forward by activists. The executive board counters that the old rules are redundant. But resistance is growing. The ousting of Chairman Manifold cannot be ruled out. For new CEO Meg O'Neill, her debut will be a trial by fire. Additionally, the group Follow This is demanding disclosure of what BP's strategy looks like amid falling oil demand. Management has blocked this motion so far.

The Middle East conflict is driving the Brent price above USD 100, a boon for BP's production but a curse for refining margins. Uncertainty remains high. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is blocking around 18 million barrels per day. Fiscal headwinds also loom. Germany and four other EU countries are calling for a new windfall tax on energy companies. BP itself is countering with a strict debt reduction plan targeting USD 14–18 billion by 2027 and is sticking to its dividend. However, share buybacks have been paused for now. And the operational foundation is shaky. At the Whiting refinery, a lockout involving 800 union workers is looming, and foreign employees have already been withdrawn from Iraq due to security concerns. The stock is currently trading at EUR 6.633.

Globex Mining – The Patient Commodities Bank

Imagine a commodities company that covers nearly all commodities and needs no financing. While other explorers stumble from funding round to funding round, Globex Mining sits on over CAD 40 million in cash, with zero debt and only about 56 million outstanding shares. No reverse split since its founding in 1987, no dilution. This is simply unusual in the exploration sector. The business model is a mix of a project generator and a royalty bank. In total, the company holds 270 properties, plus 106 royalties. Partners such as Antimony Resources or TomaGold handle the expensive exploration work; in 2026 alone, over 300,000 m of drilling will be completed on Globex's claims. The company quietly reaps the rewards.

The news in April 2026 shows tangible progress. Antimony Resources is conducting a 10,000-meter program on the Bald Hill project in New Brunswick; 6,500 m have already been completed. The newly discovered Marcus Zone shows massive stibnite. At the same time, TomaGold has resumed drilling on the Berrigan property, where over 98 m with 5.08% zinc equivalent was recently intersected. And then there's Mont Sorcier. Cerrado Gold plans to submit the feasibility study for this iron project in the second quarter of 2026. Globex holds a 1% gross metal royalty on a project whose Preliminary Economic Assessment showed a net present value of CAD 1.6 billion. That would be a game-changer.

Management thinks in decades, not quarters. During periods of weakness, the company makes acquisitions, as with the antimony projects in New Brunswick, which are now being ramped up with two partners. Or with the rare earths at Virgin Mountain in Arizona, where Lodestar Minerals has just identified xenotime, a mineral with a high concentration of heavy elements critical for electric motors and defense systems. Geographical expansion is underway. Québec remains the core, but Nevada, Arizona, and Canada's Maritime Provinces are expanding the footprint. For investors seeking broad exposure to commodities without taking on single-project risk, this approach is worth a closer look. The stock is currently trading at CAD 2.42.

Rio Tinto - Between Portfolio Streamlining and Major Projects

The mining group's boric acid division is attracting significant interest. More than a dozen bidders are vying for the US boron assets in California, including WE Soda and Magris Resources. The deal could bring in around USD 2 billion. It is part of CEO Simon Trott's plan to generate up to USD 10 billion through sales. Boron, which was only added to the US list of critical minerals in 2025, is found in wind turbines, fertilizers, and nuclear technology. Binding offers are expected by June.

While Rio is divesting projects that do not belong to its core portfolio on one front, the company is securing long-term prospects elsewhere. In Gladstone, Australia, it has brokered a AUD 2 billion deal with the state of Queensland.
This is intended to keep the Boyne aluminum smelter competitive through 2040. The facility has been in operation since 1982 and plans to increasingly rely on solar and wind power in the future. Meanwhile, progress is being made at the Resolution Copper project in Arizona. Following a court victory, the long-stalled land swap has been finalized, and a USD 500 million drilling campaign is underway.

When it comes to lithium, however, Rio is slowing down. Although the Nemaska processing plant in Québec is more than 70% complete, rising costs are forcing a partial halt. A restart is planned for 2027, but over USD 300 million will still flow into the Canadian business in 2026. And then there is the failed merger with Glencore. Thanks to rising coal prices, Glencore's CEO is hoping for new talks in six months at the earliest. Investors should wait and see for now. Currently, a share costs EUR 84.19.

BP is returning to its roots with oil and gas, risking an open conflict with activist shareholders in the process. Globex Mining operates as a patient royalty bank with a steadily growing portfolio and full coffers, benefiting from third-party exploration work. Rio Tinto is streamlining its portfolio to focus on core segments, selling borax, pushing copper in Arizona, and scaling back on lithium. All three are betting on rising commodity prices, but only Globex remains consistently debt-free and dilution-free. Volatility remains high.