100% Upside Potential, a Downgrade, and a Sell-Off: Renk, OHB, and Almonty

Almonty Industries: Analysts Raise Estimates and Price Target

D.A. Davidson remains bullish on Almonty Industries and reaffirms its "Buy" rating. The price target has been raised from USD 25 to USD 33. The stock of the leading Western tungsten producer is currently trading between USD 15 and USD 16. Analysts thus see upside potential of around 100%. Following an investor call with CEO Lewis Black, analysts feel their investment thesis has been strengthened. They highlight positive developments, including progress in ramping up the Sangdong mine in South Korea, the expected greater involvement of the US government, the company's solid balance sheet, and record-high tungsten prices. At the same time, D.A. Davidson points to the structurally tight supply situation for this critical raw material outside of China, which is likely to be further exacerbated by growing demand from the defense sector.

Analysts have significantly raised their revenue and earnings forecasts for 2026 through 2028. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to reach USD 237 million in 2026, USD 698 million in 2027, and USD 917 million in 2028. Previously, D.A. Davidson had expected only USD 179 million, USD 511 million, and USD 695 million, respectively. Net income is expected to rise from USD 168 million this year to USD 514.7 million in 2027 and USD 663.4 million in 2028. The higher estimates are based on increased price assumptions for tungsten and molybdenum, as well as a production ramp-up proceeding according to plan. For Sangdong, initial revenue from Phase I is expected in the third quarter of 2026, with Phase II to follow in the first quarter of 2027. Molybdenum production could begin in late 2027, while oxide production is expected to contribute to earnings starting in 2028.

Despite the higher forecasts, the analysts' model uses comparatively conservative assumptions. The estimates do not yet factor in revenue from the projects in Spain (Los Santos, Valtreixal) and the US (Gentung Browns Lake). This suggests further upside potential. The long-term tungsten price assumption has been raised to USD 1,750 per MTU starting in 2027. This remains well below the current spot price of around USD 3,000 per MTU.

Renk: Drones Are Becoming a Problem

mwb research has downgraded Renk shares from "Buy" to "Hold" and confirmed the price target of EUR 50. From the analysts' perspective, the recent NATO summit failed to meet investors' expectations for additional major orders for heavy combat vehicles. Instead of tanks, procurement programs are currently focused primarily on air defense, drones, reconnaissance, and long-range weapon systems. As an example, mwb cites Estonia, where a planned procurement program for armoured personnel carriers worth EUR 500 million was suspended, and the funds were redirected to drones and air defense.

Analysts also remain cautious regarding the major German Arminius project. Rheinmetall is projecting a potential volume of around EUR 40 billion for up to 3,000 vehicles, but the final contract is not expected to be signed until the second half of 2026 at the earliest. mwb anticipates lower unit volumes than Rheinmetall and does not see a positive driver for the share price until there are solid tank orders on a credible scale.

Operationally, mwb continues to expect strong growth at Renk. Revenue is expected to rise from EUR 1.54 billion in 2026 to EUR 1.82 billion in 2027 and EUR 2.13 billion in 2028. EBITDA is likely to increase over the same period from EUR 350 million to EUR 406 million and ultimately to EUR 479 million. Analysts forecast net income to rise from EUR 185 million in 2026 to EUR 216 million in 2027 and EUR 262 million in 2028. Following the recent share price rally to near the price target, mwb currently considers the valuation, with an expected P/E ratio of 21 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11 for 2027, to be appropriate.

OHB: Visit by the Federal Minister of Defense

Over the past two months, OHB's share price has more than halved. Following the completion of the capital increase and the partial exit of a major shareholder, the focus can now return to the operational performance of the Bremen-based aerospace group. OHB recently reported on a visit by Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius. The discussion centred on current space programs, technological developments, and the importance of space-based infrastructure for security and defense. Against the backdrop of geopolitical changes, particular emphasis was placed on the contribution that space technology can make to the technological and strategic sovereignty of Germany and Europe.

OHB CEO Marco Fuchs referred to the EUR 35 billion in investments in military space capabilities announced by Pistorius. Based on its many years of experience and technological expertise, the company sees itself as a potential partner in expanding German and European capabilities in space.

During the visit, the delegation toured cleanrooms, ongoing satellite programs, and the production facilities for modern space systems. Pistorius also spoke with employees and dual-track students at the company. The discussion focused not only on career prospects in the space sector but also on its importance for communication, navigation, weather forecasting, crisis management, and security.

Once the capital increase is complete, analysts are expected to update their reports. In early July, NuWays confirmed its "Buy" recommendation for OHB shares with a price target of EUR 340.

Almonty is only at the beginning of a period of rapid revenue and earnings growth. The company's shares should soon begin to benefit from this as well, particularly as tungsten is likely to remain both scarce and expensive. Renk is expected to deliver solid growth in the coming years, but its valuation is no longer cheap, and the long-term outlook for "heavy military equipment" appears more limited. OHB surged on the back of the SpaceX hype. Now, however, the situation is beginning to normalize.