May 5th, 2026 | 07:05 CEST
Shockwave in the tungsten sector! Trump getting involved? Almonty is the real winner either way!
A major shake-up in the tungsten sector. This critical metal is essential not only for the defence industry and semiconductor production. To date, China controls around 80% of the global market. Tungsten prices have multiplied this year alone. This now appears to be catching the Trump family's attention as well. According to various US media reports, the Trump clan is looking to enter the tungsten market. The whole situation has at least a somewhat questionable undertone. And it will likely take many years before production begins—if it ever gets that far. As a result, tungsten is likely to become even more well-known among US investors, and thus Almonty Industries as well. The company is already producing today and selling at prices previously considered unthinkable.
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Fabian Lorenz
ISIN:
ALMONTY INDUSTRIES INC. | CA0203987072 | TSX: AII , NASDAQ: ALM , ASX: AII
Table of contents:
Author
Fabian Lorenz
For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.
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A Bombshell In The Tungsten Sector
It is currently a hot topic in the US financial media: Donald Trump's sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, have entered the tungsten market through a complex web of corporate holdings. Through the company Skyline Builders, a merger with Cove Kaz Capital Group was completed, resulting in the new company Kaz Resources (KAZR). This company controls 70% of the Kazakh tungsten deposits, Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty. According to estimates, the Trump sons are said to hold a 20% stake.
Criticism centers primarily on the close intertwining of private investment and government subsidies. The project is supported by financing commitments from the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), totalling USD 1.6 billion. The fact that the president's family is now directly benefiting from government subsidies raises questions about the separation of public office and private business.
While the transaction focuses attention on the tungsten market, it will not alter the scarcity of this critical metal in the West for the time being. Despite the billion-dollar commitments, Kaz Resources is only at the beginning of development. In the second half of 2026, work will begin on the feasibility study; its completion and the subsequent final investment decision will take about 2 years. Given the necessary construction phase for the mine in the Kazakh steppe, commercial production is hardly expected in the 2020s—if it ever comes to that at all.
Yet more tungsten is urgently needed by Western producers of defence equipment, semiconductors, aerospace components, and much more. This is because China is not only the largest producer of this particularly hard metal but has itself become an importer. It is therefore no surprise that the price for a Metric Ton Unit (MTU), equivalent to 10 kg, of ammonium paratungstate (APT) on the Rotterdam trading platform is now approaching USD 3,300. At the beginning of this year, the price was around USD 900 per MTU, and in mid-2023, it was below USD 300. The big winner in this development is Almonty Industries. In recent years, the company has developed the largest Western-owned mine in South Korea.
The Winner in the Tungsten Market
Almonty has evolved from a niche producer to a key strategic player in the global tungsten market. On the Nasdaq, the company is now valued at around USD 6 billion. And the chances of further price increases are good. The West remains undersupplied, developing new mines takes years, and analysts' estimates continue to appear conservative.
While the company initially demonstrated operational efficiency on a smaller scale in Portugal, the real catalyst lies in the recommissioning of the historic Sangdong mine in South Korea. The deposit, once among the most significant in the world, returned to production at the end of 2025 following years of investments totalling over USD 100 million. With an above-average ore grade and a planned mine life of more than four decades, Sangdong ranks among the most attractive tungsten projects outside of China.
The first phase of expansion is ramping up, and capacity is set to double again next year. The mine is thus expected to cover a significant share of the non-Chinese global supply—a geopolitically relevant factor, particularly for the US, which is entirely dependent on imports. Additionally, the mine in Portugal is being expanded, and production is slated to begin in the US state of Montana before the end of this year.
At the same time, Almonty is consistently expanding its value chain. In addition to mining operations, a tungsten oxide processing plant is being built in Sangdong, and an adjacent molybdenum deposit is also being developed. The goal is an integrated supply chain that meets the growing demands of Western customers—particularly those in the defence sector.
Things Are Likely To Get Exciting Again On May 20
In his latest interview with Lyndsay Malchuk of the IIF, Lewis Black, CEO of Almonty Industries, emphasizes above all the strategic importance of human capital in the increasingly critical global tungsten market. Access to know-how is a key competitive advantage, he says, as expertise in mining and processing has been lost over the years and is now held by only a few specialists. Accordingly, Black relies on a deliberately unconventional team structure: flat hierarchies, a high degree of personal responsibility, and executives from outside the traditional mining sector.
The goal is an organization that does not depend on individuals but functions sustainably. This culture ensures exceptionally high employee retention and attracts above-average qualified personnel—a decisive factor in a geopolitically sensitive raw materials segment.
Black will present at the IIF's virtual investor conference on May 20, 2026. There is likely to be news regarding developments in Portugal, South Korea, and the US. Additionally, the Almonty CEO has repeatedly shared exciting market insights over the past few years. Private investors can register for the IIF free of charge.
Conclusion: P/E ratio below 10
If analysts are to be believed, the rally in Almonty shares will continue. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald expect Almonty to generate CAD 1.2 billion in revenue next year. Earnings per share are projected to climb to CAD 3.21. At a current price of around CAD 28, the 2026 P/E ratio would thus be below 10. These estimates are likely based on a tungsten price well below USD 3,000. Analysts at GBC Research, for example, are projecting a price of USD 1,500.
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