Peace plan for Ukraine! Losses at Rheinmetall, RENK, and Hensoldt - Are Oklo and Kobo Resources already a buy?

Rheinmetall, RENK, and Hensoldt – Trump's peace plan triggers investor sell-off

Shares in the defense companies Rheinmetall, RENK, and Hensoldt have recently come under heavy pressure, even though there are hardly any operational reasons for this slump. The correction was triggered by media reports about alleged confidential plans by the US and Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Many investors now fear that a rapid political agreement could abruptly slow down European rearmament programs. Over the weekend, rumors spread that the US proposal may have originated in the Kremlin and was translated for the Trump administration - an allegation supported by comments from several linguists and online notes. If true, this would support the notion that Putin, with the assistance of US President Trump, aims to steer Western countries toward a "desired solution." Contradictory statements by US Secretary of State Rubio support this thesis.

Analysts, on the other hand, are divided. While some fundamentally oriented observers view the recent correction as overdue, David Perry of JPMorgan considers the violent market reaction as a clear downward exaggeration. He argues that the proposed points would be unacceptable to Ukraine or European partners in any case and therefore would not impact already approved defense budgets. At the same time, the investment bank expects in its base scenario that the war will continue well into 2026. At its recent Capital Markets Day, RENK reaffirmed its Vision 2030 with a revenue target of around EUR 3 billion. According to the LSEG platform, revenue for 2025 is expected to rise to EUR 1.35 billion, up from EUR 1.14 billion. The 2023 scenario is therefore still quite a long way off. Technically, RENK shares have come under severe pressure, falling below key support zones and the 200-day moving average. The situation is similarly challenging for industry peer Hensoldt. After peaking at EUR 117.60 in October, the stock lost nearly 40% to EUR 71.60 by Friday. With a market capitalization of EUR 8.4 billion, the projected 2025 revenue of EUR 2.52 billion is still valued at a demanding 3.4x sales. The current correction is therefore likely to continue for both stocks. Rheinmetall has now also lost a good 20%, with technical downside potential toward EUR 1,200. It remains exciting!

Kobo Resources – West Africa's gold reserves on the agenda

West Africa is increasingly becoming the focus of international commodity investors, with Côte d'Ivoire playing a key role thanks to its political stability and well-developed infrastructure. In this environment, Kobo Resources is rapidly advancing its Kossou project in the Birimian Belt, just a few kilometers from the capital, Yamoussoukro. Drilling campaigns to date, covering more than 24,000 m, have revealed continuous gold mineralization, particularly in the Road Cut and Jagger zones. Notable hits, including 17 m at 3.87 g/t gold and 9 m at 6.84 g/t gold, highlight the exceptional quality of the mineralized zones. In addition, drilling to a depth of 240 m indicates that the structure may extend for several kilometers. To establish the data foundation for an initial resource estimate, a follow-up drill program covering 12,000 to 15,000 m is currently underway. The Company has now mapped four clearly defined gold-in-soil anomalies at Kotobi, which make the area extremely promising. Of particular note is a 700-meter-long soil anomaly at Kotobi 1, where peak values of up to 1,420 ppb gold were measured, and initial trenching work confirms continuous mineralization in the bedrock.

Recent drill results at Kossou also returned new solid intercepts, including 9 m at 3.60 g/t gold and 8 m at 2.54 g/t gold in the Jagger Zone. Similarly, further significant hits were achieved in the Road Cut zone along a major fault zone, once again confirming the spatial extent of the mineralization. With less than a quarter of the license area having been systematically explored to date, the likelihood of further discoveries remains high.

A CAD 3.9 million financing completed in August ensures that work at Kossou, as well as metallurgical studies and exploration steps at the nearby Kotobi project, can continue. With a still modest market capitalization of around CAD 25 million, Kobo could be a potential acquisition target for established regional producers. Well-capitalized companies such as Barrick, Perseus, and Endeavour are active in the region. After an unexpected 50% correction, Kobo shares (ticker: KRI) now look highly attractive; Atrium Research maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of CAD 0.60!

Oklo – Focus on small reactors

We have reported on Oklo Inc. many times. As expected, the stock has corrected significantly in the last four weeks, as investors are increasingly doubtful about the financial viability of the many projects. The full implementation of nuclear projects requires external investors, the government, and public funding programs to cover the billions in investments that are needed. So far, there has been little news of such commitments, and Oklo itself has virtually no growth capital in reserve to raise the necessary funds. Nevertheless, the pipeline is well filled. For example, the expansion of cooperation with the Idaho National Laboratory is on the agenda, which will strengthen the availability of important materials and fuels. The selection of three DOE reactor pilot projects in the US signals a high level of political confidence and accelerates the realization of the Aurora fast reactors developed by Oklo. At the same time, the Company regularly addresses public authorities in order to make progress on these issues. Since its all-time high of USD 195 in October, the share price has fallen to USD 80. Investors are now once again keen to see how the sector will develop. But they are exercising caution: there are no indications of any revenue or profits for Oklo on the LSEG platform until 2029. Watch this space!

The stock market has entered very turbulent waters. While tech and AI stocks are gradually reducing their questionable premium to reality, gold and silver stocks have only worked through part of their potential revaluation. Kobo Resources is a curious case. Although drilling results are improving, the stock continues to consolidate. Is this a huge buying opportunity?