Novo Nordisk calculating carefully, Evotec facing potential takeover? Clinical trial and up-listing at Vidac!

Novo Nordisk – Another disappointment

Some would say: Enough is enough! After a 59% drop in its share price over the last 12 months, Novo Nordisk suffered another major disappointment yesterday. Once the most valuable European company, it is now feeling the effects of fierce competition and facing considerable headwinds. Other companies now also offer obesity drugs, price pressure continues, and margins are collapsing. A massive cost-cutting program has been underway for months, yet management has had to revise its annual targets downward once again.

This is a bitter setback for the new CEO, Mike Doustdar, who took the helm in August and is pushing ahead with a restructuring plan that includes job cuts. He cited lower growth expectations for the Company's own GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and obesity called Wegovy as the reason. However, Doustdar now wants to take countermeasures: "We plan to increase the pace in all areas in order to better assert ourselves in dynamic and increasingly competitive markets," he explained. The sales forecast was reduced to 8-11% growth after operating profit collapsed by almost a third to DKK 23.7 billion in Q3. Although revenues from the weight-loss injection rose by just under a fifth to DKK 20.4 billion, overall sales are sluggish. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen spoke of a slowdown after a period of "hyper-growth." At least Novo Nordisk has agreed on a price for its key drugs Ozempic and Wegovy with the US government health insurance program Medicare. A ray of hope?

Vidac Pharma – It is time for the next round

Things appear to be coming together for Vidac Pharma. The Company is considered a pioneer in the field of metabolic cancer therapies with a clearly differentiated mechanism of action that targets the reversal of the Warburg effect. The drug candidates VDA-1275 and VDA-1102 address a fundamental principle of tumor metabolism, which has high innovation potential and could lead to a new class of drugs. Strategically important is the increasing visibility at the international level, particularly through participation in the "Beyond the Needle" forum in Basel. The invitation to an exclusive meeting with Johnson & Johnson demonstrates greater industrial interest and points to potential strategic partnerships. Vidac emphasizes the compatibility of its technology with intratumoral therapy approaches, which significantly increases the likelihood of follow-up financing or cooperation. At the same time, the clinical program is progressing steadily, which provides the basis for a fundamental reassessment. Particularly noteworthy is the regulatory approval of a clinical trial in Germany, a validating step for the scientific substance and compliance capability of Vidac's research approaches.

This study addresses highly proliferative actinic keratoses with malignant potential, a clearly defined, medically relevant, and growing indication field. Furthermore, the study marks the first clinical application of a molecule that pharmacologically reverses the Warburg effect. Vidac thus achieves a clinically extremely relevant "proof-of-mechanism." This not only tests the translational hypothesis but also clinically anchors a potentially fundamentally new oncological mechanism of action. European regulatory involvement and collaboration with specialized dermatology centers creates operational credibility and access to key opinion leaders.

Vidac Pharma is in a phase of increasing visibility and plans to list its shares on the primary market of the Düsseldorf Stock Exchange in order to increase trading liquidity and, in the future, enable access to XETRA trading. Despite its currently low market capitalization, the depth of its pipeline and ongoing scientific validation reflect a clear valuation delta that points to significant development potential. A multiplier candidate for 2026!

Evotec – After all the fuss, now a takeover?

"With prices this low, an acquisition could happen soon!" – was how a trader on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange summed up his comments on Evotec yesterday. In the morning, Evotec announced an agreement with Sandoz for the sale of its Just Evotec Biologics production facility in Toulouse, along with potential milestone payments and revenue participation from a portfolio of up to 10 biosimilar molecules. The total transaction value exceeds USD 650 million, in addition to future revenue-sharing components. Furthermore, Evotec expects to generate more than USD 300 million in additional revenue over the coming years, stemming from royalties, development income, and performance-based milestone payments. Further revenue hopes are raised by the participation in future biosimilar sales. Many would call this quite a deal!

Christian Wojczewski, CEO of Evotec, commented: "This agreement marks an important milestone for Evotec. We can continue to leverage the capabilities of Just Evotec Biologics while positioning ourselves as a provider of scalable technologies in the biologics market. Through this transaction, we are pursuing our capital-efficient strategy, focusing on our core competencies and laying the foundation for sustainable, profitable growth."

Once the transaction is completed, Evotec will continue to support customers in Europe and the US with comprehensive services along the biologics value chain. However, challenges remain for 2025. Group revenues are now estimated at between EUR 760-800 million, while R&D expenses are expected to total EUR 40-50 million. The bottom line: adjusted EBITDA is anticipated between EUR 30 and 50 million. The outlook through 2028 remains unchanged. Evotec expects average annual revenue growth of 8-12% and an adjusted EBITDA margin above 20%. That is not enough to satisfy the ambitious expectations of many traders: Evotec shares plunged 18% to EUR 5.80. The irony for speculators: the market capitalization now stands at just under EUR 1 billion, while the deal value exceeds USD 1 billion over the next three years. The operating business, it seems, is being given away on the stock market.

Novo Nordisk and Evotec have had a volatile nine months. All fans who repeatedly jumped on the bandwagon have been disappointed so far. For 2026, management should have more in store for investors than what has been presented this year. The situation is quite different at Vidac Pharma. The latest news could easily justify a potential doubling. Speculative investors should keep a close eye on the chart, as trading volumes are picking up!