Crash, correction, or buying opportunity? Silver at 74, gold at 4,700 - SAP and Microsoft down 20%, while Almonty and ASML advance

SAP and Microsoft – Sell-off after cautious outlook

These are big moves! While gold, silver, and copper are going crazy, the first tech stocks are reporting their results for 2025 and updating their outlook. Microsoft made the first move in the middle of last week. Although revenue and profits exceeded expectations, growth in the important Azure cloud division slowed and remained well below forecasts. But Microsoft can announce a huge deal with Perplexity, as the US technology group has signed a USD 750 million cloud contract with the AI startup. Under the agreement, the AI company will use Microsoft's Azure cloud and deliver its models via the Foundry service. This will give Perplexity access to frontier models from several leading AI providers, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. Despite this news, Microsoft shares lost more than 10% or USD 350 billion in market value within 24 hours. While 57 analysts on the LSEG platform still give it the thumbs up and expect an average of USD 597, MSFT shares have fallen back to USD 425, a new 18-month low. Caution is advised!

SAP did not fare much better on Thursday! The trigger for the sharp 20% drop in the share price was the publication of the 2025 figures. What really unsettled analysts was the significantly lower order backlog in the cloud sector (current cloud backlog). At first glance, the balance sheet presented appears solid, as the results are in line with high expectations. While revenues in the final quarter of 2025 rose by 3% to EUR 9.68 billion, operating profit increased by as much as 27% to EUR 2.55 billion. The operating margin improved by a full 4.9 percentage points to 26.4%, and net profit rose by 17% to EUR 1.9 billion. So far, so good. However, a second glance reveals some weaknesses, as the growth momentum in the cloud business, the driving force behind the immense rise in SAP shares over the last three years, continues to lose steam, even though the growth rate is still a high 19%. The share price subsequently plummeted to EUR 162, but stabilized again on Friday at around EUR 170. **Analysts are completely indifferent: HSBC expects EUR 187, while DZ Bank has even downgraded to "Sell" with a target price of EUR 150. But there are also more positive views. Warburg and Wells Fargo have "Buy" recommendations at EUR 275 and EUR 315, respectively. SAP is highly interesting in the long term, as the 2027 P/E ratio is now below 20. However, the share price may still experience some volatility!

Almonty Industries – The story is developing as planned

It was not just the technology markets that were shaken up; the commodity markets also experienced a nasty hangover after a buying frenzy. Almonty Industries' share price reached a new all-time high of CAD 17.50 on Wednesday, with a mighty market capitalization of CAD 4.6 billion. CEO Lewis Black has worked long and hard to reach this point, with the Company's progress reflecting sustained execution and strategic discipline. With four properties, active mining in 2026, and clearly defined upward scaling, the Company has become a titan in the tungsten-molybdenum spectrum. The predefined milestones are being successively completed, there is approximately CAD 200 million in the coffers, and most of the supply and purchase agreements are already in place.

CEO Lewis Black makes no secret of the fact that those who fail to secure their supply chains today will be left with idle conveyor belts in the near future. This is because the markets for critical metals are becoming increasingly difficult rather than easier, compounded by arbitrary tariff announcements, new geopolitical conflicts, and transatlantic security tensions. Almonty Industries is in the eye of the storm, but it can continue to develop consistently, and customers will be lining up eagerly when tungsten from South Korea, which is now three times as expensive, is ready for delivery. In Europe, APT (ammonium paratungstate) prices reached highs of USD 1,000 to USD 1,300 in January, compared to USD 300 to USD 400 in 2024. For investors in Almonty, this means keeping calm and simply adding to their positions when prices weaken, as they did at the end of last week. In this case, an investment focus is more beneficial than a trading perspective.

CEO Lewis Black with an assessment of the global political situation in light of the shortage of critical metals.

ASML – Chip lithography breaks all records

Another buyer of critical metals is Dutch lithography and semiconductor specialist ASML. The Company has undergone an astonishing development over the past 10 years and is now one of the core companies in the entire chip and high-tech industry. Record figures from TSMC and the announcement of further dizzying investments suggested that upstream ASML would not run into a demand problem anytime soon. After all, the Dutch company's equipment is indispensable for state-of-the-art manufacturing processes, which is why its customer list includes all the big names from Western countries. In Q4 alone, ASML recorded order intake of EUR 13.2 billion, exceeding expectations by a full 50%. The order backlog has swelled to EUR 39 billion, more than the EUR 32 billion generated in 2025. The Dutch company is also achieving an operating margin of 35%.

According to management, 2026 is set to be another year of growth, and the medium-term forecast, which expects revenues of between EUR 44 and 60 billion for 2030, appears interesting. New production facilities are to ensure that even more orders can be processed in the future. If the AI boom continues, the Company will continue to grow at a rapid pace. The only criticism is the 2026 valuation with a P/E ratio of 52 and a P/S ratio of 12. The bold continue to buy, while the hesitant wait for corrections that are difficult to predict but should be seized upon in this case.

The US president wants to flex his muscles in the Persian Gulf. The mullahs do not seem particularly impressed yet, but the stock markets are a different story. Precious metals suffered a noticeable slump, with delivery obligations at the end of January playing a significant role. While SAP and Microsoft were severely punished for their poor outlook, Almonty and ASML once again showed strength at a high level. This highlights the importance of maintaining a broadly diversified portfolio.