Buy Recommendations for Almonty, Micron, and TKMS! Defense, Commodities, and Semiconductors with Upside Potential!

Almonty Industries: Strong Case for Rising Prices

Is there currently an exciting opportunity to buy or add to positions in Almonty Industries? After a strong rally from EUR 7.30 in early 2026, the tungsten producer's stock soared to EUR 20. Since mid-April, the stock has been consolidating and closed at EUR 12.12 on Friday. There are strong arguments for rising prices. Tungsten is in critical short supply in Western countries; the megamine in South Korea is ramping up production; despite the historic price level of around USD 3,000 per MTU, no correction is in sight; and Almonty's cash reserves are well-stocked for both organic and inorganic growth.

Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald also see a buying opportunity. The experts recommend buying Almonty shares with a price target of USD 25.50. The valuation is based on a combination of net asset value and the expected EBITDA for 2027. In their analysis, the experts initially assume the currently high tungsten prices and, in the long term, a price of USD 600 per MTU. This appears extremely conservative. The current spot price is USD 3,000 per MTU.

The analysts view the recent extension of the long-term offtake agreement for tungsten concentrate from the Sangdong Mine with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP) as positive. The term was extended from 15 to 21 years, increasing the total contractually secured volume by 40% to 4.41 million MTU. Once production is ramped up, at least 210,000 MTU are to be delivered annually. At the same time, the pricing for the agreed-upon volumes improves by approximately 6.3%. The contract covers approximately 90% of the planned production from the first phase of the Sangdong expansion and extends into the late 2040s.

Pennsylvania-based GTP is one of the largest Western manufacturers of tungsten powders and a key supplier to the US defense and industrial sectors. For Almonty, the agreement thus not only strengthens long-term sales security but also reinforces Sangdong's strategic importance as a tungsten source outside of China. The planned Phase II expansion, which is expected to roughly double processing capacity, is not yet factored into the contract and therefore offers additional sales potential.

Analysts expect Almonty to generate revenue of CAD 540.7 million in the current year. Next year, that figure is projected to reach CAD 1.38 billion. Net income is expected to be CAD 328.0 million in 2026 and to skyrocket to CAD 854.6 million next year. Converted to USD, earnings per share in 2027 would thus be USD 3.07. At a current share price of USD 13.34, this corresponds to a P/E ratio of 4.34 for 2027.

TKMS: Order Backlog Provides Predictability

On August 12, 2026, TKMS will report on the third quarter of fiscal year 2026/2027. Analysts at mwb research expect solid performance and believe the marine group is on track operationally. For the first nine months of the fiscal year, they anticipate revenue growth from EUR 1.59 billion to EUR 1.78 billion. EBIT is expected to rise from EUR 97 million to EUR 102 million. In the Surface Vessels division, business is likely to recover following a weaker second quarter. For submarines, project execution is expected to proceed as planned, while Atlas Elektronik is projected to have a more subdued third quarter due to delayed deliveries.

Analysts view the expected major orders as particularly important for the company's future development. The previously announced frigate order is expected to be signed in the fourth quarter and will include an advance payment. As a result, free cash flow for the full year could exceed the current consensus estimate of EUR 185 million. The Canadian submarine project has not yet been factored into order intake, as the final contract has not yet been signed. However, mwb views this step largely as a formality and sees it as a potential strong boost to the order backlog in the coming fiscal year. In addition, there are further opportunities, including in India.

mwb considers the recent decline in the TKMS share price to be unjustified. According to analysts' estimates, the order backlog could rise to around EUR 25 billion by the end of the current fiscal year and, if contracts are successfully concluded in Canada and India next year, could even exceed EUR 40 billion. This would correspond to roughly 16 times annual revenue and would create exceptionally high revenue visibility well into the 2040s. Since many contracts are also inflation-indexed, mwb sees a high degree of predictability. The analysts therefore reaffirm their "Buy" recommendation and the price target of EUR 135. TKMS shares are currently trading at EUR 80.

Micron Technology Invests Billions

Micron Technology stock is not for the faint of heart. Initially, it rose from USD 320 in early April to over USD 1,200 by the end of June. Then, within three weeks, it fell to USD 850. Investors are divided on whether the AI boom will drive sustained demand for semiconductors or whether we are nearing the end of the pig cycle. The bears argue that the current billion-dollar investments in new factories will lead to overcapacity. The bulls believe that the AI boom will fully utilize all capacity.

Micron also plans to invest heavily. Up to USD 3 billion is set to be allocated to expanding the US semiconductor supply chain alone. The goal is to secure the long-term supply of key intermediate products while strengthening the domestic production base for memory chips and other semiconductor applications. A key component is a strategic investment of USD 500 million in GlobalWafers. The funds are intended to support the expansion of 300-mm silicon wafer production in Sherman, Texas. In addition, both companies are planning a ten-year supply agreement designed to secure Micron's long-term access to significant wafer capacity.

Micron is thus responding to the growing demand for high-performance memory and storage solutions, which is driven primarily by artificial intelligence and data-intensive applications. According to GlobalWafers, it is the only supplier under the US "CHIPS for America" program capable of producing advanced 300-mm blank wafers locally in the US. In addition, both companies intend to collaborate on new wafer technologies and process innovations. The planned transaction is still subject to final agreements, as well as customary approvals and closing conditions.

The latest analyst comments on Micron remain extremely positive. KeyBanc reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating with a price target of USD 1,750, citing ongoing shortages of memory chips and continued price increases. UBS also views the pullback as a buying opportunity and maintains a price target of USD 1,625. Analysts expect DRAM supply to remain tight through at least 2028, with AI-driven demand for HBM and other memory solutions continuing to grow.

Almonty shares are currently underperforming. However, the price of tungsten remains at record levels, and the company is ramping up production of this highly sought-after raw material. The P/E ratio appears far too low. TKMS is also not expensive, and its order backlog provides stability. However, the shipbuilding sector remains complex. Micron is banking on rising demand with its investments.