Apple and Ferrari face their moment of truth – Almonty is already delivering

Apple: First results presentation for the new boss

Last week was a cold shower for the "Magnificent Seven", the seven major US technology stocks. Alphabet lost around 12% in a single day following its quarterly results, wiping out some USD 500 billion in market value. Amazon also fell. Missed expectations and massive investments in data centres for artificial intelligence – USD 77 billion at Amazon alone in the third quarter – spooked investors. This week, it is now up to Apple to fly the flag for the Mag-7 stocks. The figures are due today, Monday, after the US market close.

The Cupertino-based group's advantage: its business model does not require multibillion-dollar bets on its own data centres. Expectations are high, but not excessive. Analysts expect revenue of USD 113.4 billion for the quarter just ended, up a solid 10% year on year. Earnings per share are expected to rise from USD 1.85 to USD 1.99. In the first three quarters of the 2025/26 financial year, Apple earned USD 6.87 per share, with more than USD 2.00 in each quarter. One risk is higher memory chip prices, which Jefferies says could weigh on margins. Media reports in October also pointed to reduced orders for the iPhone 18 Pro models.

However, the dominant topic is likely to be the change at the top. John Ternus has led the group since September 1, while his predecessor Tim Cook became Chairman of the Board. Ternus comes from hardware development. This evening, he will face analysts for the first time as CEO, who see little further potential in the shares after their recent all-time high. Most experts' price targets of USD 320 to USD 340 are below the current level of USD 345 (around EUR 309 on German trading venues). Whether analysts raise their targets will depend on the outlook for the Christmas quarter. The shares are not cheap. Based on consensus estimates for 2027, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 36.

Ferrari: Expensive dreams on four wheels

Ferrari will report its figures the day after Apple. One name connects the two iconic groups: Jony Ive. Apple's former chief designer helped design the Luce, Maranello's first electric vehicle. In Europe, the five-seater costs a hefty EUR 550,000, and in the US, USD 560,800. Traditionalists turn up their noses. Customers apparently do not. According to industry reports, the 2026 allocation sold out in less than two months. A one-off model even fetched USD 40 million at auction.

It is precisely this pricing power that sets the brand apart from its competitors. While the rest of the automotive industry groans under tariffs and weak demand, the Italian company's order book is full through the end of 2027. In July, Ferrari raised its full-year guidance. For the third quarter, analysts expect revenue of around EUR 1.9 billion and earnings per share of EUR 2.36. That would be 7% and 10% more, respectively, than in the same period last year. Tomorrow, Tuesday, the focus is likely to be on order trends alongside the financial results.

The shares are still far from their record high of over EUR 480 in 2025. Since their spring low, however, they have risen from EUR 266.50 to EUR 354.80. With a P/E ratio of 32.4 based on 2027 estimates, they are similarly expensive to Apple. At least the average price target of EUR 408 suggests about 15% upside. Deutsche Bank even believes the shares could reach EUR 460.

Almonty: With a red nose and clown shoes

US tungsten producer Almonty Industries will not be reporting figures this week. Nevertheless, there is no shortage of news, as the latest newsletter shows, in which CEO Lewis Black addresses investors every fortnight. What connects Almonty with Apple and Ferrari? All three companies sell a scarce commodity. For Apple and Ferrari, it is design and exclusivity; for Almonty, an extremely heat-resistant metal that the Western defence industry cannot do without. From January 1, 2027, tungsten from China, Russia, North Korea and Iran will be prohibited in US defence contracts. China controls around 80% of global production. Almonty is stepping into precisely this gap with its Sangdong mine in South Korea. At the end of October, the first container of tungsten concentrate in more than 30 years left the site. At full capacity, the mine is expected to deliver 200 tonnes a month, or 6.5 to 7 tonnes a day. The second phase of expansion is already under way, and the mills have been ordered.

However, the most important message in the recent newsletter concerns the tungsten market itself. For decades, China has dictated the price. That is now changing. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) plans to introduce a tungsten futures contract in 2027. This will allow producers and buyers to lock in prices in advance. In addition, information service S&P Global Platts plans its own price quotation for tungsten not sourced from China. Almonty is also making operational progress. In Rwanda, the mining group plans to ship more than 100 tonnes of concentrate a month soon, making it the country's largest tungsten exporter. As a bonus, a molybdenum deposit lies about 90 m below Sangdong, and mining it has already been approved. According to Black, new verification drilling is consistent with the historical data. Around 5,000 tonnes a year are planned. The buyer is committed for the entire life of the mine, with a price floor but no ceiling. In the long term, Black also sees an entirely new source of demand: nuclear fusion reactors. Each plant would need 100 to 200 tonnes of tungsten to line the combustion chamber, which would have to be replaced every two to three years.

Nevertheless, the share price has more than halved since early September. In addition to a correction in tungsten prices, a report by Goldman Sachs likely contributed to this. The bank rated the stock only as Neutral with a price target of USD 13. Its reasoning: the ambitious ramp-up in Sangdong and persistently high tungsten prices were already priced in. Following the slump, the stock is trading at USD 8.71, and at just under EUR 8 on German trading venues. It therefore has around 50% recovery potential, even to Goldman's price target. Most analysts see fair value at between USD 23 and USD 25, with D.A. Davidson putting it as high as USD 33. The P/E ratio, based on 2027 estimates, is 6.5.

Black is relaxed about a possible further price decline. Following the preceding once-in-a-century rally, the latest 10% correction was to be expected. Ammonium paratungstate (APT), the most important intermediate product, currently costs around USD 2,700 per metric tonne unit (MTU), which corresponds to 10 kg of tungsten trioxide. For a guaranteed USD 1,000 per MTU until the end of his career, Black would even have come to work "with a red nose and clown shoes" three years ago, he wrote recently. New mines in the West would take many years because of lengthy permitting processes. His forecast: the price will fall at some point, but never again to triple-digit levels. At least until then, Almonty has a degree of market and pricing power.

Conclusion: Certainty comes at a price

Why do investors pay so much for Apple and Ferrari while Almonty trades at bargain levels? The answer is certainty. The business models of the established branded manufacturers have proven themselves over decades. At Almonty Industries, the reverse is true. Here, the stock trades at a discount for uncertainty. The ramp-up in Sangdong could be delayed; the tungsten price could fall. But the decisive proof is in: the mine is producing, and at costs that would be viable even at tungsten prices of around USD 1,000 per MTU. A P/E ratio of 6.5 is simply not appropriate for a company regarded as a beacon of hope for the Western defence and aerospace industries. At Apple and Ferrari, investors pay a high price for certainty: the P/E ratio is about five times higher in both cases. At Almonty, investors get the opportunity to invest early, before certainty is reflected in the share price.