180% in 4 weeks! Are AIXTRON and LPKF Laser too expensive? Is Aspermont stock too cheap?

Aspermont: Transformation Supports Analysts' Price Target

When will Aspermont's stock finally take off? This is a valid question given the performance in the first quarter of 2026. The transformation of the business model from a traditional B2B specialty publisher in the commodities and mining sector to a subscription-driven data and intelligence platform for the global commodities sector is beginning to pay off. This makes the threefold increase in the stock price expected by analysts seem increasingly realistic. Analysts at GBC Research estimate the fair value of Aspermont stock at EUR 3.03. The share is currently trading at EUR 1.06. Especially with small-caps, it sometimes takes longer for a stock to take off. And this is precisely where opportunities lie.

Aspermont's business model is now based on recurring subscription revenue, an extensive content archive, and a growing portfolio of high-quality data for decision-makers in the commodities sector. As the publisher of renowned industry publications such as the Mining Journal, the Australian company sits on a veritable treasure trove of data that has been digitized in the Mining IQ data platform. It enables in-depth analyses ranging from individual projects to geopolitical risks.

In the second quarter of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, Aspermont increased revenue by 15% to AUD 3.4 million. EBITDA was still slightly negative at AUD 0.2 million. However, this is expected to change significantly over the course of the year. The company aims to generate positive cash flows as early as the third quarter.

GBC analysts expect that Aspermont will generate AUD 18.90 million in revenue and a net profit of AUD 0.53 million as early as next year. By 2028, revenue is projected to reach AUD 21.30 million, and net profit is projected to grow to AUD 1.73 million. With a current market capitalization of approximately AUD 22 million, the valuation for a growing cloud business model with recurring revenue appears anything but expensive.

AIXTRON: Nearly 50% in Four Weeks

While Aspermont still offers an attractive entry opportunity, the price rally at AIXTRON is already well underway. In the past four weeks alone, the semiconductor equipment manufacturer's stock has surged by nearly 50%. Over the past 52 weeks, the price gain stands at 280%. The company is now valued at EUR 5.56 billion. Only during the hype of the Neuer Markt in 2000 was the valuation higher. This means AIXTRON is now valued at nearly 10 times its annual revenue.

Most recently, the company reported a significant uptick in business. This was driven primarily by exceptionally high demand in the optoelectronics sector. As a result, order intake in the first quarter, at EUR 171.4 million, was 30% higher than the previous year's level. In particular, demand for laser applications generated numerous multi-tool orders, resulting in a robust order backlog of approximately EUR 359 million. While the power electronics sector, particularly SiC systems, still shows signs of weakness, CEO Dr. Felix Grawert is optimistic about the future. He sees the beginning of a new structural growth trend.

Despite the positive order trend, revenue and earnings in the first quarter were weaker than expected due to seasonal factors and compared to the previous year. Revenue amounted to EUR 59.4 million, falling within the forecast range but significantly below the prior-year figure of EUR 112.5 million. To secure operational flexibility and long-term profitability, AIXTRON initiated structural measures as early as the first quarter, including a workforce reduction that resulted in one-time costs in the mid-single-digit million range.

Due to the dynamic order trend, AIXTRON has raised its forecast for the full year 2026 and now expects annual revenue of up to EUR 590 million. The EBIT margin is expected to improve to 17–20%. Starting in the second quarter, major system deliveries are set to begin, which should further accelerate growth.
At the same time, the company is driving forward its global expansion and plans a new production site in Malaysia to strengthen supply chain resilience and better serve Asian customers.

For some analysts, the rally has gone too far. DZ Bank, Barclays, UBS, and Deutsche Bank, among others, recommend holding AIXTRON shares. While JPMorgan and Jefferies recommend buying, their price targets of EUR 35 and EUR 36.50 are significantly below the current price level of over EUR 49.

LPKF Laser: Nearly 180% in four weeks

LPKF Laser is also among the high-flying stocks of recent weeks. Here, the performance over the past four weeks stands at an incredible 178%. From Montega's perspective, this is clearly excessive. In their research update published on Monday, the analysts raised the price target from EUR 9 to EUR 15, but LPKF shares are already trading at EUR 20.80.

From the analysts' perspective, LPKF got off to a weak start to the year with its Q1 figures. This is largely attributable to weakness in the solar business. The investment case is primarily based on growth expectations for the Advanced Semiconductor Packaging segment. In this segment, management has announced initial orders for the second quarter. The company is in advanced discussions with several customers. At the same time, the company is expanding its portfolio beyond its core LIDE technology, including into the areas of ablation (removal of the ABF layer), bonding (joining glass layers), and co-packaged optics, thereby deepening LPKF's value chain.

Consequently, analysts have adjusted their model. In the LIDE segment, they now expect revenue of around EUR 35 million in the coming year. Previously, the expectation was EUR 15 million. By 2028, LPKF could then generate revenue of around EUR 80 million in the LIDE segment. As a result, consolidated revenue could exceed EUR 200 million in 2029. However, this optimistic scenario is already factored into the current company valuation. Therefore, the recommendation is merely to "Hold".

Shares of LPKF Laser and AIXTRON have surged. Current business developments do not even begin to justify the price rally. On the other hand, momentum is strong, and hype in the semiconductor sector is high. However, profit-taking should be considered. Aspermont shares appear ripe for a price rally. With small-caps, it can sometimes take a little longer, but the business model and operational performance certainly justify higher prices.