Volvo, dynaCERT, Caterpillar: Diesel Will Not Disappear Overnight

Volvo: Hydrogen Push Gains Momentum

Commercial vehicle manufacturer Volvo is leading the way in the hydrogen sector and, together with other major companies and political representatives, is planning to establish infrastructure for hydrogen-powered heavy goods vehicles, with the aim of making European heavy goods transport competitive. A fully operational supply system is set to be in place by 2030. Volvo is collaborating on this with companies from the transport, energy and industrial sectors, including Toyota, Daimler Truck and Bosch.

A key objective of this collaboration is to establish refueling stations along major European transport routes. At the same time, the alliance plans to put corresponding truck fleets on the road. To enable logistics companies to use this technology economically, the alliance is targeting a competitive hydrogen price that keeps total operating costs at a competitive level. In this initiative, hydrogen is seen as a complement to battery-powered vehicles. More detailed plans for the project will be presented in mid-September 2026 at the IAA Transportation trade fair in Hanover.

At the same trade fair, Volvo will also present a newly developed platform for internal combustion engines with a 13-litre displacement. These engines are intended for various heavy-duty truck models from the manufacturer and are due to be delivered to customers from early 2027. The engines are characterized by their ability to run on different fuels. In addition to conventional diesel, the vehicles can also be powered by biodiesel, liquid biogas and, from 2030, green hydrogen.

Volvo is dividing the range into two basic versions, designed for liquid and gaseous fuels respectively. Technical modifications to components, such as modified pistons and turbochargers, reduce fuel consumption by up to 4%. An automatic engine shut-off on gentle downhills further contributes to reducing fuel consumption. With these new powertrains, the company is preparing for future emissions and noise regulations. In return, Volvo intends to discontinue production of its existing 11-litre engines by the end of 2027 at the latest.

dynaCERT: The Decisive Phase Is Now Beginning

At dynaCERT, years of development work could increasingly give rise to a scalable business. Vietnam, in particular, is emerging as a key reference market. There, HydraGEN™ systems are now in operation across a range of applications, from trucks and container handling equipment in port operations to projects in the waste management and oil and gas industries. A crucial milestone was already achieved in June. Following a successful pilot phase, dynaCERT received its first production order from a Vietnamese logistics company.

However, the potential extends far beyond Vietnam. Discussions in Cambodia, Indonesia and Japan indicate that these reference projects could serve as a springboard for expansion across Asia.

dynaCERT is targeting a huge existing market. Worldwide, millions of diesel-powered trucks, construction machinery, mining vehicles and generators will continue to be in use for years to come. HydraGEN™ technology eliminates the expensive hurdles of fleet replacement by retrofitting directly onto existing diesel engines. Hydrogen and oxygen are generated on-board and fed into the combustion process. The aim is to achieve more efficient combustion, lower fuel consumption and reduced emissions. This retrofit capability can be particularly attractive from an economic perspective for fleet operators.

A second pillar could create additional value. The HydraLytica telematics platform enables the collection of operational, consumption and emissions data. In conjunction with the Verra-certified methodology, this also opens the prospect of monetizing verifiable CO₂ savings through emissions certificates.

This brings dynaCERT to a critical juncture. Pilot projects now need to translate into larger fleet deployments and production-scale orders. The CAD 5 million in funding provides the company with additional room to expand its sales efforts. If it succeeds in scaling up, the enormous global installed base of diesel vehicles and machinery could represent a massive market opportunity. If scaling succeeds, the massive global fleet of diesel engines could represent a huge market opportunity.

Caterpillar: AI Push Backed By High Analyst Expectations

Technological advancement has not yet really taken hold in the construction industry. Caterpillar now aims to change this and has entered into a strategic partnership with the technology company FieldAI. This collaboration aims to increase the use of artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and robotics on construction sites and in industrial plants. By combining Caterpillar's many years of experience in mechanical engineering and the operational data it generates with FieldAI's AI models, work processes are to be made safer and more efficient.

A key component of the collaboration is the use of real-time data, for example, to create digital twins of facilities. This is supported, amongst other things, by computing technologies from Nvidia, enabling potential hazards to be identified at an early stage and allowing inspections to be automated. FieldAI, which has a team of experts from organizations such as NASA and Google, contributes in particular its expertise in robot-assisted software for unstructured environments.

Meanwhile, on the financial markets, Caterpillar shares are under scrutiny by analysts. Baird currently rates the shares as "Neutral" and has set a price target of USD 970. This assessment is based on the particularly strong financial results for the second quarter of 2026, during which the company recorded robust growth in its order book and profits.

However, the experts at Baird believe these peak figures are unlikely to be sustained at such extremely high levels in the future. Furthermore, the share currently trades at a fairly high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, suggesting its valuation is already very ambitious. Other financial experts are more confident. Following the strong quarterly results, some institutions have raised their price targets for Caterpillar to over USD 1,000, not least because the group has also revised its overall revenue forecasts for the current year upwards.

The transformation of heavy goods transport will not involve a rapid phase-out of diesel. Volvo is investing, alongside industry partners, in a European hydrogen ecosystem, while Caterpillar is further developing heavy machinery with AI, autonomous capabilities and new propulsion technologies. For dynaCERT, it is precisely this long transition phase that presents an opportunity. Millions of existing diesel engines could continue to operate for many years to come. Should the pilot projects in Vietnam lead to larger-scale production orders, HydraGEN™ could evolve from a niche product into an economically viable bridging technology.