Up 38% in One Week: OHB Takes Off - Could Nel ASA and First Hydrogen Be Next?

Robotics Market Poised for Billions in Revenue: First Hydrogen in Line for a Re-Rating?

Leading investment banks say the global robotics market is poised for enormous growth. Advances in artificial intelligence are expected to enable the use of autonomous systems in an increasing number of sectors. In a September 2026 study, Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for AI-powered robotics could reach annual product revenue of around USD 25 trillion by 2050. In addition, there is potential recurring revenue from services, which analysts estimate could be more than twice as high. The forecast also covers other autonomous systems and humanoid robots. 

A Bank of America study from March 2026 shows how quickly the market for humanoid robots, in particular, could develop. According to the study, global unit sales are expected to rise from around 20,000 units in 2025 to 10 million units in 2035. This would correspond to average annual growth of around 86%. The importance of the components used is particularly interesting. According to Bank of America estimates, linear and rotary actuators, including motors and gearboxes, will account for around 51% of a humanoid robot's hardware costs in 2030. This also opens up substantial market opportunities for specialised technology suppliers. The war in Ukraine shows that autonomous systems are no longer used only in factories and logistics centres. Unmanned ground vehicles are increasingly being deployed there to transport ammunition and supplies, evacuate the wounded or carry out dangerous combat tasks. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, more than 50,000 logistics and evacuation missions were carried out using such vehicles in the first months of 2026 alone. Their growing military use suggests that specialised autonomous ground platforms, as well as humanoid robots, are finding a growing market.

First Hydrogen also aims to benefit from growing investment in robotics and autonomous systems. The Canadian company is currently building a new business division. In early September, it secured exclusive worldwide rights to an AI-powered platform for unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs). The company plans to further develop and commercialise the technology for various applications. These include military applications such as transporting supplies and supporting drone operations. First Hydrogen also sees potential applications in industry, construction and logistics. The vehicles are intended to be capable of operating autonomously or by remote control, depending on requirements. 

With the agreed acquisition of a 60% stake in Exodus Actuation Solutions, First Hydrogen has also secured access to technologies for motors, gearboxes and robotic drives. Exodus holds 26 granted patents and a further 10 patent applications. According to the company, the first motors and gearboxes have already been produced and delivered. The technologies are to be used in humanoid robots and industrial automation systems, among other applications. First Hydrogen is consolidating its activities under the new subsidiary, First Humanoid Corp. While the UGV platform is intended to enable entry into the autonomous ground-vehicle market, Exodus broadens the technological foundation for developing and marketing robotics solutions. First Hydrogen is therefore positioning itself in two high-growth segments of the robotics market. The share is a hot candidate for a re-rating.

Nel ASA: A Week of Ups and Downs

What a week for Nel. Initially, the company lifted sentiment with a small order from the US and a partnership with Rheinmetall. However, the share price did not react much more positively. On Thursday, shareholders' restraint was rewarded. The hydrogen specialist published modest figures. 

In the third quarter of 2026, revenue slumped 63% to NOK 112 million. At the same time, losses widened significantly. EBITDA deteriorated from NOK -37 million in the prior-year quarter to NOK -93 million. The bottom line was a net loss of NOK 141 million, compared with NOK 85 million in the previous year. The alkaline electrolyser business performed particularly poorly. Revenue here slumped 91% to just NOK 23 million. Segment EBITDA slid to NOK -41 million. Liquidity also declined significantly. At the end of September, Nel still had cash and cash equivalents of NOK 1.08 billion. A year earlier, it was NOK 1.76 billion.

At least there are bright spots in the PEM electrolyser business. Segment revenue rose 65% to NOK 89 million. Order intake rose 473 % to NOK 245 million. Across the group, new orders rose by 339% to NOK 253 million. The order backlog reached NOK 1.31 billion, up 34% from the prior year. Management points to an increasing number of potential projects and progress in technology development. However, it remains unclear when Nel will return to profitability at group level. The company only holds out the prospect of profitability once the hydrogen market is growing sustainably.

OHB: Up 38% in One Week

While First Hydrogen is still working toward a share revaluation, OHB rose sharply last week. Since Tuesday, the share price has jumped about 38%. On Friday alone, it rose more than 15%. One boost came from NuWays analysts. In their view, the recent weakness in OHB's share price is unjustified. In May, the share was trading at over EUR 600. On Friday, it headed into the weekend at EUR 195.  

The analysts point out that the space group secured an order worth just under EUR 1 billion for the European satellite network IRIS² in the third quarter. OHB will develop and manufacture 18 satellite platforms. Initial revenue is expected as early as the fourth quarter, with revenue likely to peak in 2028/29. In addition, a Polish project to finance six additional satellites could bring OHB a follow-up order worth around EUR 200 million. A contract award is also drawing closer for the European Earth observation programme Sentinel-3 Next Generation. NuWays estimates the potential value for OHB at around EUR 650 million. The contract is expected to be signed in the fourth quarter.

The analysts see further potential in the Bundeswehr's SATCOMBw 4 project. The programme aims to establish a satellite network for secure and independent military communications. NuWays now expects OHB could receive between 50 and 70% of the estimated order volume of around EUR 10 billion. At subsidiary Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA), however, the first rocket launch could be delayed until 2027 due to outstanding tests and winter weather conditions. NuWays does not expect this to affect its financial forecasts. For the full year 2026, the analysts expect total output of EUR 1.44 billion and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 158 million. By 2028, these figures are expected to rise to EUR 2.41 billion and EUR 308 million respectively. NuWays confirms its Buy recommendation for OHB shares with a price target of EUR 340.

OHB also released news on Friday. However, the announcement is unlikely to have driven the share price rise. Together with the Alfred Wegener Institute and the University of Exeter, the space group has launched a new study commissioned by the European Space Agency (ESA). The 2-year EO4TIPP project will investigate how satellite data can be used to detect critical changes in the Earth system at an early stage. The focus includes thawing permafrost, changes in the Amazon rainforest and the evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The aim is to identify gaps in Earth observation and recommend future satellite missions. OHB can draw on experience from projects such as the European Copernicus CO2M mission and the German environmental observation mission EnMAP. The company did not disclose the study's financial value.

Conclusion

Nel ASA continues to face significant challenges. Although the liquidity cushion is large, a profitable business model is still nowhere in sight. OHB has had a strong week. The annual high was likely excessive, but space remains an exciting theme, and there are few investment opportunities for investors in Europe. First Hydrogen is building an exciting business area. The share is a hot candidate for a re-rating.