The war opens up opportunities in commodity stocks: Barrick Mining, Antimony Resources, and Freeport McMoRan in focus

Now there is fighting in the Middle East, yet the price of gold is among the losers. Investors have currently settled on the US dollar as a safe haven. Yet gold is the "safe haven" par excellence. Unlike any other asset in the world, the precious metal has no counterparty. Those who keep it in a vault in the basement, like many central banks, are less vulnerable to blackmail by the US.

But the war appears to have changed things quite a bit at the moment. There are two theories as to why gold is not in demand during these uncertain times. First: with the fighting in the Gulf and rising oil prices, many no longer expect interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. On the contrary, interest rate hikes are currently even being priced in; that would be poison for the price of gold. But this idea contains a major flaw: the US simply cannot afford higher interest rates. Washington's debt burden has now surpassed the USD 39 trillion mark. According to media reports from the US, the current war alone costs USD 1 to 2 billion dollars per day. Higher interest rates would therefore put the government in even greater distress.

The second theory relates directly to the small Gulf states. Some rely on gas and oil exports as their business model. Other states, however, such as Dubai, have instead adopted a strategy of attracting as many tax exiles from Europe as possible. They appear to have largely abandoned the city. Dubai's engine has ground to a halt. Not least, airlines like Qatar or Emirates provided cash flow. There are currently rumors that they are in need of cash. A significant portion of the aircraft are grounded, and demand has collapsed. Consequently, several Gulf states may be forced to sell gold to remain liquid.

The gold market is currently overreacting. While the price is more than 20% below its all-time high, we are currently at the level seen at the end of December 2025. In just over three months, euphoria has turned to panic. Copper is currently suffering from concerns about a possible recession. In extreme scenarios, some observers are predicting an oil price of USD 150 or USD 200. If that were to happen, the global economy could indeed slide into a recession. On the other hand, long-term demand for copper is rising steadily, while yields from existing mines are declining.
Many, such as Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport-McMoRan, remain calm nonetheless and believe that demand for copper for electrification, data centers, and other high-tech sectors will remain stable despite the market uncertainties associated with the Iran conflict.

The fact is that the structural trends for gold, copper, and critical metals like antimony have not changed. The decline in stock prices since the start of the war, therefore, offers opportunities for investors to buy quality at lower prices.

Barrick Mining: The Potential Remains

Barrick was more of a latecomer to this gold boom. In principle, the stock has only been trading for a year. Previously, troubles in Mali—including the closure of a gold mine—had left shareholders with long faces. The company has since resolved this issue and, in the process, also parted ways with former CEO Mark Bristow. Successor Mark Hill's new strategy calls for a spin-off of the company. The highly efficient gold mines are to be spun off into a new entity. This "NewCo" would include the stable gold mines in North America (including Nevada Gold Mines) and the Caribbean. An IPO for this business is planned.

Nevertheless, the strategic shift initiated by Bristow will continue. The "old" Barrick is to retain the riskier operations in Africa and Asia. This business primarily consists of copper assets. This spin-off is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. Despite a potential IPO, however, management intends to retain operational control of "NewCo." Analysts estimate the value of the North American division at over USD 40 billion.

Barrick Mining's stock has lost about 29% of its value since its peak in late January. The company is still making good money even at current gold price levels. Additionally, it has been implementing a new dividend policy since the start of the year and plans to distribute 50% of its eligible free cash flow going forward. For Q1, a dividend of USD 0.175 per share was paid out in February. There is also expected to be a performance bonus at year-end. Furthermore, Barrick has invested USD 1.5 billion in share buybacks in 2025. Such a program is set to continue this year as well. For long-term investors, current prices could therefore present a good entry opportunity. Due to the current high volatility, it is advisable to buy in stages.

Antimony Resources: For Western Supply Chains

Military spending continues to rise. Donald Trump now plans to increase the US budget to USD 1.5 trillion, up from the previously announced USD 1 trillion. But other NATO countries, as well as Japan, India, and China, are also spending heavily. Yet rearmament requires the right metals. As early as the third week of the war in the Gulf, experts were warning that due to high missile consumption, the US likely had only two months' worth of reserves for certain metals, such as rare earths. Currently, China, which is supporting Iran in this conflict, is unlikely to supply these metals. The Chinese dominate the global market from mining to processing, and also strictly control exports. One problem for Western countries allied with the US is antimony. This shiny, brittle semimetal is indispensable to the military industry and is used in ammunition production. As an alloying element in lead bullets, it improves the hardness, strength, and dimensional stability of the projectiles. In most applications, 3 to 5% antimony is added, which ensures greater precision and penetrating power for the ammunition. China holds the upper hand here and controls more than 60% of the global market, according to data from the US Geological Survey (USGS). The United States is therefore attempting to establish supply chains outside of China's sphere of influence. Among the promising projects in this regard is Bald Hill in the Canadian province of New Brunswick. It is being developed by Antimony Resources and could play a key role in supplying Western countries in the future.

Bald Hill has a long history. The Lake George Mine, once the only primary antimony mine in North America, was located nearby. Bald Hill itself has been explored since 2008 using modern exploration technology. Since then, it has been known that the site contains a deposit with an extremely high-grade stibnite content (antimony sulfide). Historical drilling revealed peak values of up to 11.7% antimony over several meters.

Antimony Resources can build on this preliminary work and utilize a historical database. This facilitates exploration of the deposit and saves both time and money. The historical NI 43-101 report also clearly indicates the size of the deposit. According to the report, there are 81,000 to 106,000 tons of antimony here. That is more than China produced in 2023 (around 60,000 tons). The management team, led by Antimony Resources CEO Jim Atkinson, is currently working on setting up a corresponding drilling program that is expected to cover 10,000 m. The company has ample funds for this. As recently as the end of 2025, the company raised CAD 9.45 million from investors. An additional CAD 1.21 million was raised through the exercise of warrants. Antimony Resources is therefore expected to release drilling results on an ongoing basis in the coming weeks and months.

Antimony Resources' stock has lost about a quarter of its value from its record high of CAD 1.60. Since critical metals like antimony are likely to benefit from the conflict in the Gulf and the rivalry between the superpowers, the US and China, the current pullback should represent a buying opportunity.

Freeport McMoRan: Fears of a Global Recession

Shares of copper companies have also suffered setbacks recently. As with other metals, a whole range of factors came together here. For instance, the need for liquidity was high among many market participants, and profits were taken, to name just one factor. Added to this is the concern about a global recession. In any case, Freeport McMoRan has presented itself as an opportunity to take profits. The stock had more than doubled from its peak since early 2025. The demand for copper driven by trends toward electrification, batteries, and, of course, the boom in AI data centers has fueled the price of copper and boosted Freeport. Since its high in late February, essentially since the start of the war in the Gulf, the stock has lost about a fifth of its value.

Yet Freeport McMoRan is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers. As recently as September 2025, the company suffered a setback during a mudslide at its largest mine, Grasberg in Indonesia. Nevertheless, the stock quickly recovered from this incident, in which mudslides had entered a tunnel. Starting in the second quarter, Freeport plans to begin a gradual resumption of production in the affected areas. However, due to the copper shortage, Freeport quickly shrugged off the setback. The US company is posting solid figures with disproportionately rising profits for 2025, which stood at around USD 2.2 billion - about 17% higher than the previous year. With its diversified portfolio of copper mines, Freeport is likely to benefit from global trends. However, investors should proceed with great caution. Persistently high oil prices and growing concerns about a global recession could hit the stock hard.