The Next Commodity Shock Is Coming – Almonty Industries in the Spotlight

China's Monopoly Is Crumbling – Prices Soaring

For decades, China dominated the tungsten market, accounting for around 80% of global production and a large share of processing. But it is precisely this imbalance that is now becoming a problem. Export controls, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory interventions are accelerating the decoupling of supply chains. The consequences are already visible, and the market is facing a structural deficit. Demand from the defense industry, chip manufacturing, and high-tech sectors is growing rapidly, while supply is failing to keep pace. According to forecasts, the market is expected to expand significantly in the coming years, while bottlenecks in critical intermediate products such as tungsten hexafluoride are set to increase. The rise in the price of ammonium paratungstate reflects this trend and is likely to become structurally entrenched given the geopolitical situation.

Unique Positioning – Why Almonty Stands Out

Almonty Industries prepared for this exact scenario early on and established a strategic foothold that is unparalleled in the Western commodities sector. At the heart of this is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, one of the historically most significant tungsten deposits outside of China, which has been brought back into production after decades of inactivity and is now being gradually ramped up. Significant volumes are already being processed in the current phase, but the true potential lies in the planned expansion, which is expected to nearly double production capacity and position the company as a dominant supplier outside of China in the long term.

What is decisive here is not only the quantity but, above all, the quality of the mined material, which, due to its purity, is particularly suitable for high-end applications in the defense and semiconductor industries and thus offers a clear competitive advantage.

In parallel, the company is pursuing a consistent geopolitical strategy. The relocation of the company's headquarters to the US is far more than a symbolic step; it opens direct access to government support programs, strategic partnerships, and a market that, given regulatory requirements, will increasingly rely on non-Chinese suppliers in the future. Particularly relevant in this context is the planned start of production on US soil, which could place Almonty in a key position within the American raw materials strategy. Governments are increasingly acting as buyers and investors themselves and are willing to pay significant premiums for security of supply.

Broadly Diversified

Added to this is the company's broad international footprint. With existing production in Portugal and the further development of projects in Spain, the company is creating additional diversification and strengthening its role as a reliable supplier to European industries. This geographic diversification not only reduces operational risks but also increases the company's strategic importance across multiple economic regions simultaneously. This expansion is supported by a solid financial foundation, which allows the company to drive large-scale projects forward while responding flexibly to market changes.

Another key point is the management's long-term vision. CEO Lewis Black is deliberately pursuing the development of a comprehensive Western tungsten ecosystem rather than working toward a monopoly-like position. This strategy may seem unusual at first glance, but it makes economic sense. Large industrial customers require multiple stable supply sources to secure their production chains. Only through a broader supply can a transparent and sustainable market price be established that is not distorted by government intervention from individual countries. In this context, Almonty positions itself not only as a producer but as a central building block of a new, independent raw materials architecture in the West.

A Revaluation on the Horizon

The combination of a structural supply deficit, geopolitical relevance, and rising prices makes tungsten one of the most exciting commodity markets in the coming years. Almonty Industries plays a key role here. With growing production capacity, strategic proximity to the US, and a clear positioning as a key Western supplier, the company possesses significant potential for a revaluation. Should the high price level solidify and the geopolitical premium be priced in more strongly, the stock is likely to be poised for a sustained upward trend.