Stock market in transition: Which business models impress? Aspermont, HelloFresh and Rheinmetall

HelloFresh rises after quarterly results – Is the 200-day moving average coming within reach?

Shares in HelloFresh SE rose significantly towards the end of last week. By Thursday, November 5, the stock had gained over 30% at its peak before profit-taking set in. Nevertheless, the shares closed on Friday at EUR 2.98, with a weekly gain of 10.6%. This brings the gain from the September 25 low to over 38.6%. 

The Berlin-based meal kit provider generated adjusted EBITDA of EUR 54.4 million in the third quarter. This was about 35% more than the previous year and above analysts' average expectation of EUR 49 million. Revenue, however, fell 11.3% on a constant-currency basis to EUR 1.40 billion. HelloFresh spent less on marketing and acquired fewer new customers than expected. Profitability therefore improved despite weaker demand.

For the meal-kit business, the adjusted EBITDA margin, on a constant-currency basis, increased from 9.4% to 10.7%. The ready-meals business reached adjusted EBITDA break-even on the same basis. A year earlier, the segment had still recorded adjusted EBITDA of EUR 21.6 million. Free cash flow also improved, from minus EUR 80.7 million to minus EUR 5.7 million.

The management board confirmed the full-year guidance lowered in September. On a constant-currency basis, HelloFresh continues to expect a revenue decline of 9 to 11% and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 350 to 370 million for 2026. For the coming quarters, the question is therefore whether the company can attract more orders again while maintaining its progress on margins. Although average order value rose by 7.5% on a constant-currency basis to EUR 70.50 in the third quarter, the number of orders fell by almost 18%.

The technical picture has brightened. The share price is above the 20-day moving average at around EUR 2.92 and the 50-day moving average at EUR 2.73. With Thursday's price jump, the shares also broke above the 100-day moving average at around EUR 3.13, but have not yet been able to hold above it sustainably. Several interim highs in October were in this area, making it an initial minor resistance zone. The next upside level is between EUR 3.52 and the still-falling 200-day moving average at EUR 3.82. Only a sustained rise above this average would also brighten the longer-term technical picture.

Aspermont: Data intelligence as a new growth driver in the commodities sector

Following the strategy adjustment and the transition years of 2024 and 2025, the Australian media company Aspermont has continued to advance its digital transformation. It is now positioning itself as a subscription-based data and analytics platform. In the 2026 financial year ended September 30, the company generated USD 3.4 million in fourth-quarter revenue and an annual recurring revenue base (ARR) of USD 11.6 million. Subscription revenue amounted to USD 10.2 million, marking the tenth consecutive year of growth – evidence of sustained demand for its digital products.

The subscription segment contributes around two-thirds of group revenue and has increased revenue in 37 consecutive quarters, although the growth rate has recently slowed to 4% year on year. A new service area is being developed in collaboration with the mining group Rio Tinto, which is contributing AUD 550,000 towards the digitisation of all drilling data published over the company's 190-year history. In return, Rio Tinto received first-access rights to the resulting platform, potentially securing an information advantage for future investment and acquisition decisions.

At the heart of the initiative is a search and generative AI platform based on a large language model, which Aspermont internally calls Mining-IQ and is continuously building and expanding with the digitised data. The data and analytics business is gaining noticeable momentum: revenue in the Nexus division grew by 127%, a first contract with a Tier 1 equipment manufacturer (OEM) was signed, and 10 leading mining companies are already testing the platform through proofs of concept. Accordingly, the company classifies this area as its third growth driver alongside subscriptions and transactional business.

Financially, the media group remains disciplined: at the end of the quarter, it had USD 1.6 million in cash and was entirely debt-free. For the coming financial year, Aspermont anticipates sustainably positive operating revenue generation in the second half of the 2027 financial year. Against this backdrop, the current market capitalisation of around AUD 14.7 million (EUR 9.16 million) appears moderate relative to the growth potential and therefore offers an attractive risk-reward profile.

Rheinmetall plunges after guidance cut – Will the EUR 800 level hold?

Shares in Rheinmetall AG slumped by a substantial 21.60% to EUR 812.70 last week. At one point, the share price fell as low as EUR 798. The shares are down around 48% since the start of the year. Over 52 weeks, the decline amounts to around 53%. The focus was on the second cut to full-year guidance since August.

The Düsseldorf-based defence group recorded significant operating growth in the third quarter. Operating profit rose 62% to EUR 553 million. The margin improved from 14.8% to 17.5%. However, Rheinmetall fell short of revenue expectations. The group generated EUR 3.15 billion, while analysts surveyed by Vara Research had expected an average of EUR 3.3 billion.

Rheinmetall had already lowered its forecast for 2026 on Wednesday evening. The Executive Board now expects revenue of around EUR 13.2 billion, down from the previously projected EUR 13.7 to 14.2 billion. The operating margin is expected to be around 18.5%, down from the previously expected 19%. The new revenue forecast is even below the lowest of the 22 analyst estimates compiled by Vara Research in mid-October. Rheinmetall had already adjusted its forecast in August because of the F126 frigate project.

For the Arminius procurement project, Rheinmetall does not expect the order for the Bundeswehr's Boxer wheeled armoured vehicles until 2027. This shifts expected revenue and advance payments. Approvals for individual delivery batches of artillery ammunition are also being delayed. After nine months, operating free cash flow stood at minus EUR 1.70 billion, mainly because of higher inventories. Rheinmetall continues to expect positive operating free cash flow for the full year. The Executive Board scrapped its previous cash conversion ratio target of more than 40%.

From a technical analysis perspective, the share has fallen below its previous 52-week low of around EUR 900. It is therefore below its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Before the slump, the 50-day moving average stood at around EUR 1,050 and the 200-day moving average at around EUR 1,251. On the downside, the round EUR 800 mark is now in focus.

In the event of a recovery, the area around EUR 900 would be the first hurdle. This was the level of both the previous low and Thursday's intraday high. Above that, the price gap to Wednesday's close at EUR 1,003.40 would likely remain open initially. How difficult it will be to close this gap is also likely to depend on whether the group achieves its announced positive free cash flow for the full year in the final quarter.

For the 2027 outlook, a reliable timetable for Arminius is likely to be particularly important. As long as the timing of the contract award remains uncertain, it remains difficult to estimate when the expected advance payments will be received. For ammunition, what matters is how quickly the outstanding approvals are granted, and whether Rheinmetall can deliver the goods.

Conclusion

HelloFresh is improving its profitability despite declining revenue. Order numbers and stable margins next quarter remain crucial for a sustained share price recovery. Aspermont is expanding its data and analytics business and expects this to generate steadily rising revenue and positive operating cash flows, which should help the share price return to gains after its long sideways phase. Rheinmetall is growing operationally, but the lowered forecast, delayed orders and high cash outflows are weighing on the share price and complicating the outlook.