Restructuring, energy transition, record profits: What is driving the markets? Deutsche Bank, RE Royalties, thyssenkrupp, tk accelis

thyssenkrupp: Down almost 12% – this price zone matters

thyssenkrupp shares had been through a highly volatile week. The shares first fell by 12%, then shot up by almost 21% by last Wednesday, before shedding another 12% by Friday and heading into the weekend at EUR 12.01. However, a special factor drove the decline: thyssenkrupp spun off its materials, trading and services division as an independently listed company under the name "tk accelis". 

The initial trading price for tk accelis was EUR 27.80. Existing shareholders received 1 share in tk accelis for every 20 thyssenkrupp shares held. A total of 49% of the subsidiary was spun off, while thyssenkrupp remained the majority shareholder with 51%. Part of the previous investment value was separated from the parent company's shares and subsequently held in the additionally allocated shares. The daily loss displayed therefore did not fully represent an economic loss for existing shareholders. However, the corporate action explained only part of the movement. The previous day's closing price, adjusted for the spin-off, was EUR 13.28. Compared with this reference value, thyssenkrupp still lost just over 9%. Even when considering the parent company's shares and the allocated shares together, a significant setback therefore remained. Consequently, the weak share price performance could not be dismissed solely as a mathematical effect.

Strategically, CEO Miguel López continued the transformation into a financial holding company. Following the flotations of Nucera and TKMS, the materials trading business also received its own stock market listing. Under the name tk accelis, the business was intended to grow more independently and offer more services relating to processing and supply chains. For thyssenkrupp, the separate valuation opened up opportunities to make the value of individual holdings more visible. However, whether this results in sustainably higher valuations depends on their business performance.

The scale of the newly listed subsidiary was considerable. In the 2024/25 financial year, tk accelis generated revenue of EUR 11.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 229 million. The corresponding margin was just 2%. In the medium term, the company was targeting 4 to 5% and annual revenue growth of more than 4%. A greater share of services, the North American business and efficiency measures are intended to help achieve this. The targets highlighted both the potential for improvement and the operational progress still required.

From a technical analysis perspective, thyssenkrupp slipped below its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages on the unadjusted price chart. These stood at around EUR 13.76, EUR 14.35 and EUR 13.08. However, the spin-off limited comparability with historical prices and moving averages. The visible break therefore had to be assessed in the context of the corporate action. The area between EUR 11.50 and EUR 12 emerged as the next support zone. The 200-day moving average was last at around EUR 11.53. If this support zone had failed, the psychological level of EUR 11 would have become the next reference point. A sustained decline below that level would significantly worsen the technical picture once again. For stabilisation, thyssenkrupp first needed to find buyers again in the current support zone.

RE Royalties: Cash flows in the shadow of the green boom

The global energy transition is gaining substantial momentum through the exponential expansion of energy-intensive data centres, industrial processes and modern AI infrastructure. In the US market alone, around 86 GW of additional grid capacity is expected in the current year. This is primarily being driven by photovoltaic, storage and wind power installations. In this capital-intensive transformation process, the Canadian company RE Royalties positions itself through a revenue-based royalty financing model and therefore does not act as a conventional operator. By providing growth funding to developers, the group secures long-term revenue streams without bearing direct operational risks. Its financial success has so far vindicated management, as this depends significantly on risk-appropriate due diligence when selecting project sponsors.

Since operations were established, more than CAD 80 million has been allocated to over 100 diversified revenue-sharing investments across several continents. The published internal rate of return of over 19% p.a. illustrates the company's favourable margins to date within the specialist segment of bespoke SME financing. The dividend paid of CAD 0.04 per share demonstrates a strong cash flow profile. However, higher central bank interest rates, higher discount rates and higher refinancing costs weigh on the economic viability of future renewable energy projects, meaning project selection will likely require even greater discipline.

At the operational level, the recent tranche totalling USD 1.8 million reinforces the commitment to partner Solaris and the targeted expansion of North American activities. A non-binding framework agreement with Solaris also opens up significant scaling potential of up to USD 62.7 million in additional financing volume. The underlying decentralised US solar installations have prospective contract terms of at least 25 years, offering the prospect of predictable, inflation-protected cash flows. However, the non-binding letter of intent (LOI) only secures the investment option, and with a market valuation of approximately CAD 13 million at a share price of around CAD 0.30, the stock market is currently pricing in a significant valuation discount relative to the project pipeline. To eliminate this discount, the supervisory bodies mandated PwC Corporate Finance on March 27, 2026, to review a comprehensive strategic realignment. The review process covers M&A options, partnerships and capital structure optimisation.

Deutsche Bank: Record profit meets the decisive share price hurdle

Deutsche Bank shares rose by as much as 12% to EUR 31.34 last week, before profit-taking on Friday pushed them back down to EUR 30.08. The quarterly results prompted another significant rise in the shares. Previously, the shares had corrected significantly since the September high of just under EUR 36. The latest billion-euro profit now provided a catalyst for the rebound. However, the key question is whether the operational strength can also support a sustained share price recovery.

Germany's largest bank generated a pre-tax profit of around EUR 2.6 billion in the third quarter, up 8% from the same period last year. Group profit after tax reached around EUR 1.9 billion, exceeding market expectations of approximately EUR 1.7 billion. Of this, just under EUR 1.6 billion was attributable to shareholders. The bank thus continued its run of record quarters. Revenues rose by 4% to EUR 8.3 billion, while costs remained virtually unchanged at EUR 5.2 billion. Consequently, the cost-to-income ratio improved from 64.4 to 62.4%. The bank therefore needed a smaller proportion of its revenues to cover ongoing costs. The corporate banking business performed particularly well. Investment banking also remained an important profit contributor, although its revenues fell by 2% compared with the strong prior-year quarter.

Following the results, Group CEO Christian Sewing was more confident about the full year. Assuming markets remained constructive, he held out the prospect of revenues exceeding EUR 33 billion. After nine months, the bank had already generated EUR 25.5 billion. The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 14% provided additional support. The bank had already completed share buybacks totalling EUR 1.5 billion for 2026. Nevertheless, the picture was not entirely unclouded. Provisions for credit losses reached EUR 501 million, 9% above the previous quarter. Further de-risking in commercial property and an individual case in the corporate banking business weighed on results. Investors therefore remained focused on whether rising credit risks would erode some of the progress on revenues and costs.

Analysts' reactions were predominantly positive. J.P. Morgan reaffirmed its Overweight rating with a price target of EUR 41. UBS maintained its Buy rating and EUR 37 price target, while RBC retained its Outperform rating and EUR 36 target. The targets were significantly above the share price at the time, but did not guarantee corresponding share price gains. From a technical perspective, the zone between EUR 30 and EUR 31 was the focus. It had repeatedly served as support and now formed a potential resistance level. For a sustained improvement in the technical outlook, the shares must overcome this area and hold above it. The 200-day moving average stood at EUR 30.05 and the 20-day moving average at EUR 29.56. Further hurdles lay ahead: the 100-day moving average at EUR 31.60 and the 50-day moving average at EUR 32.02. On the downside, the recent low between EUR 27.50 and EUR 28 formed support. Despite the good results, confirmation of a trend reversal was therefore still pending.

Conclusion

thyssenkrupp's share price is under pressure following the spin-off of tk accelis; the zone between EUR 11.50 and EUR 12 has now come into focus as support. RE Royalties focuses on long-term revenue participation in energy projects, whose expansion depends on binding agreements and long-term refinancing. Deutsche Bank impresses with higher profits and improved cost efficiency, but rising credit risks and the EUR 30 to EUR 31 share price range remain key.