Opportunities and Risks: The Key Levels for Deutsche Telekom, MS Industrie and HPQ Silicon

MS Industrie Jumps 20%: Is a Trend Reversal Underway?

MS Industrie made a clear statement last week. In Xetra trading, the stock peaked at EUR 1.57 before profit-taking pushed the share price back down to EUR 1.49. Nevertheless, the share gained more than 20% within a week. After months of pressure, the small industrial stock is starting to move. The recent acquisition in Serbia and a raised analyst price target provide an interesting backdrop. However, no single confirmed trigger for today's jump can be inferred from this.

The strategic expansion was announced on September 30. Through its wholly owned subsidiary MS XTEC, the group is acquiring a 51% stake in IDAS, based in Mol, Serbia. The remaining shares will initially remain with the existing owner. The precision manufacturer generated around EUR 8.5 million in revenue in 2025 and employs about 190 people. The company has been included in the consolidated financial statements since the beginning of October. This gives MS XTEC a third manufacturing site, complementing its existing production network.

The economic benefit lies primarily in business expansion. MS XTEC has so far been heavily focused on automated series production and the commercial vehicle industry. IDAS, by contrast, brings experience in customised precision manufacturing and smaller production volumes. It also brings customers from the pharmaceutical packaging and process industries. This enables the group to cover further stages from prototypes through small-series production to large-series production. A broader industry mix could reduce dependence on the volatile commercial vehicle business. The new opportunities must now translate into profitable orders.

The half-year figures already show improved earnings power. With revenue largely stable at EUR 75.8 million, EBITDA rose by 22.3% to EUR 5.2 million. EBIT increased from EUR 0.5 million to EUR 2.0 million. Operating cash flow is particularly notable, rising from EUR 3.2 million to EUR 8.3 million. This points to progress in ongoing operations. However, after-tax profit of just EUR 0.1 million shows that bottom-line profitability remains low.

On October 6, GBC confirmed its Buy recommendation and raised its price target from EUR 2.50 to EUR 2.60. The valuation horizon extends to the end of 2027. The analysts regard the IDAS acquisition as value-creating. However, as the purchase price has not been disclosed, the valuation model uses a corresponding assumption. Moreover, this is issuer-commissioned research. Whether integration and operating performance meet the underlying expectations will therefore be decisive for further developments.

From a technical analysis perspective, the share price jump has significantly improved the starting position. The shares are now above the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, which lie between approximately EUR 1.24 and EUR 1.27. The price has also broken above the EUR 1.40 level, which had repeatedly acted as resistance in recent months. The area around EUR 1.50 is emerging as the next hurdle. If it is exceeded on a sustained basis, the recovery could continue. A fall back below EUR 1.40, by contrast, would call the breakout into question. For a lasting trend reversal, MS Industrie needs, above all, further progress in earnings and cash flow alongside the fresh price momentum.

HPQ Silicon: A Technology Platform for the Energy Sector

HPQ Silicon has positioned itself strategically in an environment where Europe and North America want to become more independent in their critical-materials supply chains. The Canadian company develops processes for high-purity silicon, fumed silica and silicon anodes for lithium-ion batteries. Drivers in the sector are electrification, growing defence spending and the political desire to build regional value creation. HPQ now plans to shape and implement the transition from technology developer to materials producer. 

Progress was recently achieved at the subsidiary HPQ Silica Polvere, in which HPQ and PyroGenesis have each held a 50% stake since September. The company owns the rights to the fumed silica reactor, which is intended to convert quartz directly into fumed silica without chlorine-containing precursors. This could reduce energy requirements, CO₂ emissions, logistical effort and the handling of hazardous chemicals compared with conventional processes. According to the company, pilot operations delivered commercial-quality material. To prepare for the next steps, initial discussions about plants with annual capacities of 1,000 to around 10,000 tonnes are already underway.

The 36.8% stake in Novacium is relevant to greater battery technology potential. The company develops silicon anodes and GEN3 and GEN4 battery cells. In September, Novacium received an initial order for more than 100 AA-NOVA battery packs for the X-Lock interceptor drone from the European company Alta Ares. This was followed by an order from the French Army's technical section for prototype batteries for tactical radios. Such projects underpin technical testing in demanding application environments and are an important step toward subsequent industrial cell production.

Patents, pilot data and initial customer orders reduce development risk and mark important milestones toward scalable manufacturing with predictable margins. From a macroeconomic perspective, higher energy storage requirements support the strategic relevance of such a project. However, financing, the reactor ramp-up, independent performance verification and binding offtake agreements will be decisive in achieving a breakthrough.

Deutsche Telekom Shares Plunge: Musk Shock—Will the EUR 24 Level Hold?

Deutsche Telekom came under heavy pressure at the end of the week. On Friday, October 9, the stock fell almost 8% during trading and closed the week at EUR 24.70. On Monday, the slide continued and the stock last traded at EUR 24.60. The DAX group is thus once again approaching its summer lows of EUR 23.53. The trigger is concern over a mobile communications offensive by Elon Musk's SpaceX. Investors are asking whether the US, until now a key growth engine, will face mounting competitive pressure going forward.

On Thursday, SpaceX announced an agreement to acquire Grain Management's nationwide US spectrum portfolio in the 800-MHz band. The spectrum is intended to support the expansion of Starlink Mobile and enable connections via terrestrial networks and satellites. The transaction remains subject to approval by the US regulator, the FCC. Particularly noteworthy is that Grain only acquired the portfolio from T-Mobile in August. Now, it could end up benefiting a potential competitor.

Deutsche Telekom holds around 54% of T-Mobile US. Accordingly, the shares are particularly sensitive to potential changes in the American mobile communications market. An additional provider could increase pricing pressure and require higher investment. However, it remains unclear when SpaceX can build a comprehensive competing offering. According to Reuters, ODDO-BHF analyst Stéphane Beyazian sees no immediate threat and points to a build-out that could take several years.

The financial results to date provide initial grounds for confidence. According to figures published on August 6, group revenue reached EUR 29.9 billion in the second quarter, up 3.3% organically. Adjusted EBITDA AL rose organically by 7.3% to EUR 11.8 billion. The management board raised the full-year outlook for free cash flow AL to around EUR 20.0 billion. However, today's share price reaction shows that investors are already pricing in potential pressure on future earnings power before any concrete effects emerge.

From a technical perspective, the plunge exacerbates an already weakened position. Following the setback at the end of June, the shares recovered significantly over the summer. However, in August and until mid-September, they failed to achieve a sustained breakout above the resistance zone between EUR 28.50 and EUR 29.00. Nor could the quarterly results establish a lasting uptrend. The sharp decline on September 18 had already weakened the recovery attempt considerably. Now comes the next setback.

The shares are trading below all moving averages. The 20-day moving average stands at around EUR 27.00, the 50-day at EUR 27.90, and the 100-day at EUR 27.40. The 200-day moving average at about EUR 28.70 is also well above the current price. For a robust technical improvement, the shares would have to regain these hurdles step by step. First, however, the zone around EUR 24.00 will determine whether stabilisation succeeds. Below that lies the July low at approximately EUR 23.50. If the shares also fall below this, the psychological level of EUR 23.00 comes into focus. Holding support could allow a rebound. However, a sustained trend reversal requires more than a short-term recovery: the US business's performance and a clear return of buyers remain decisive.

Conclusion

MS Industrie benefits from an acquisition, better half-year results, and a technical breakout, but still needs to confirm that profit and cash flow progress is sustained. HPQ Silicon is advancing its high-purity silicon, silica and battery process, but scaling, financing, and binding offtake commitments remain crucial to further share price performance over the coming months. At Deutsche Telekom, concerns about competition from Starlink in the US are weighing on the shares, and the support zone at EUR 24 is now coming into investors' focus.