Good News for Rising Share Prices: Almonty Supplies Tungsten Worldwide, Novo Nordisk Raises Guidance, Apple Heads into Christmas with Record Results

Almonty Industries – Sangdong starts operations

Tungsten specialist Almonty has recently reached a major milestone in its recent corporate history. The Sangdong mine in South Korea is now producing saleable tungsten concentrate for the first time since 1993. In mid-September, the authorities issued the final certificates for the crushing and processing plants. A few days later, the first bags of concentrate came off the production line. According to Almonty, the first commercial shipment followed on October 24.

Now throughput is what matters. According to CEO Lewis Black, the mill was already operating 13 hours a day, seven days a week, at the end of September. By early October, this had risen to around 16 hours, he said. On November 1, Almonty switched to round-the-clock operations. All three shifts were staffed and operational. If the mine can sustain continuous operations, it could produce and ship around 200 tonnes of concentrate per month. Enough ore for around four and a half months of production had already been stockpiled for the start-up. This gives the team scope to ramp up the mine and processing operations at different rates.

The deposit provides a solid foundation for this. Almonty estimates probable reserves of 8.6 million tonnes of ore, with an average tungsten oxide content of 0.42%. The second expansion phase is already underway. Additional mills have been ordered, and further areas are being developed underground. Processing capacity is set to rise to up to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year by 2027. Sangdong could then produce more than 460,000 MTU annually and rank among the largest tungsten mines outside China. Future output volumes, recovery rates and deliveries will show whether the calculations add up.

Almonty has already arranged sales for most of the first production phase. Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP), a subsidiary of Austria's Plansee Group, will take at least 210,000 MTU per year following the ramp-up. The extended contract runs for 21 years from the first delivery and covers more than 90% of the planned production from the first expansion phase. The revised pricing terms improve revenue prospects. A price floor protects against some downside risk while allowing Almonty to benefit from rising market prices.

GTP processes the South Korean concentrate into tungsten powder in Pennsylvania. This supply chain will become more valuable as stricter US rules of origin for certain defence products take effect from 2027. They target tungsten mined or processed in China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. China accounts for around 80% of global mine production and has restricted exports of tungsten products. For buyers required to document origin and processing, a reliable supply source is correspondingly valuable. Tungsten is used in ammunition, wear-resistant tools and electronic components, among other things.

The metal is also gaining importance in financial markets. The futures exchange CME announced a tungsten futures contract for early 2027 in October, subject to regulatory review. The contract is based on ammonium paratungstate (APT), an important intermediate product. Producers and buyers could use it to hedge prices. A more transparent market would also be helpful for investors. The easier it is to track price movements, the easier it is to estimate how strongly they affect Almonty's revenues.

Almonty is also working on additional sources of supply. In Spain, the company plans to process the stockpiles at the closed Los Santos mine. A long-term offtake agreement with a Sandvik subsidiary is in place. In Rwanda, Almonty is already collecting concentrate from local producers. Added to this are the planned expansion of the Panasqueira mine in Portugal and a tungsten project in Montana. These projects could reduce dependence on Sangdong in the long term. Initially, however, they will tie up management capacity and capital.

Another project lies directly beneath Sangdong. Around 90 m below the tungsten deposit is a molybdenum deposit whose historical resource data Almonty is verifying through new drilling. Access via existing underground workings could limit development costs. In the long term, management is targeting around 5,000 tonnes of molybdenum a year. A buyer has already been secured. The contract provides for a minimum price and leaves the upside uncapped. How much the deposit can contribute to the valuation will initially depend on the drilling results and the economics of its development.

Almonty strengthened its financing over the summer with an USD 800 million convertible senior notes offering carrying a 2.25% coupon. This gives the company scope for expansion. In the event of a subsequent conversion, however, earnings could be spread across more shares. In parallel, Almonty had repurchased around 2.92 million of its own shares for just under USD 48 million by the end of September. The authorised programme covers up to USD 300 million.

The potential scale of the operating leverage is illustrated by the Bank of America estimates available in October. The analysts expected free cash flow of USD 728 million for 2027, up from USD 138 million for 2026, and earnings per share of USD 2.76, up from USD 0.69. Their price target currently stands at USD 24. At the current share price of around USD 8, the US bankers therefore believe the share could triple. Based on current prices, the 2027 P/E ratio is less than 3. Production and tungsten prices will determine how robust this valuation is.

The share's sharp correction in recent weeks now presents an opportunity for new investors. Several analysts believe the shares are capable of a significant recovery in the coming months. In a research note dated October 27, the experts at B. Riley reduced their price target from USD 25 to USD 20 but reiterated their Buy recommendation. Stifel's analysts also continue to rate the shares a Buy with a price target of USD 21. A total of 11 banks and research firms currently recommend buying the stock. The average price target is around USD 22.50, implying upside potential of just over 140%.

The analysts' high targets point to Sangdong's expansion potential. Whether the market shares this view will likely depend on the next delivery and production figures. The more reliably Almonty increases volumes, the sooner the expected jump in profits can be measured against concrete operating data.

Novo Nordisk – The Wegovy tablet revitalises the business

Novo Nordisk raised its full-year guidance on November 4. In the third quarter, revenue rose 4% at constant exchange rates to DKK 79.2 billion. Adjusted operating profit rose 27% at constant exchange rates to DKK 31.7 billion. Unadjusted operating profit, by contrast, fell 3% to DKK 23.0 billion. The strong improvement in adjusted earnings should therefore be viewed in the context of the exceptional items.

The biggest growth driver is the obesity drug business. The Wegovy tablet is gaining customers in the US and gives Novo access to patients who prefer a daily tablet to an injection. For 2026, the group now expects a change of between minus 2 and plus 2% at constant exchange rates in both adjusted revenue and adjusted operating profit. The combination drug CagriSema, which Novo plans to launch in the US in early 2027 subject to approval, offers further potential.

For the shares, this is an initial bright spot on the operational front. Competition with Eli Lilly remains fierce. The key question is whether the new dosage forms reach additional patients and Novo can increase sales volumes without conceding too much on price. Those betting on a recovery should therefore monitor revenue and margins as well as volumes sold over the next few quarters.

With a 2027 P/E ratio of under 12, however, Novo Nordisk is now attractively valued given its strong market position. The industry median is above 15 for the coming year. Nevertheless, international analysts remain cautious. There are 7 Buy recommendations and 7 Sell recommendations. Most analysts, from 19 banks and research firms, currently rate the shares Hold. The average price target of just under DKK 306 implies upside potential of around 14%.

Apple – Record revenue meets higher chip costs

Apple has delivered in its first earnings report under new CEO John Ternus. In the September quarter, revenue rose 12% to USD 114.5 billion, while diluted earnings per share increased 14% to USD 2.10. Analysts had expected USD 113.4 billion. The group also exceeded earnings per share expectations of USD 1.99. The iPhone business grew particularly strongly, achieving record revenue for a September quarter. The services business generated its highest-ever revenue. This combination is particularly valuable for Apple. A strong devices business expands the base for recurring services revenue.

For the new iPhone Duo, Apple fans' enthusiasm is reflected above all in the delivery date this time. Just hours after pre-orders opened on October 16, waiting times already stretched into January. Apple's first foldable smartphone also sold out within hours at the New York flagship store on October 23. Each customer could buy no more than two devices. The fact that such waiting lists are forming even at a starting price of EUR 2,299 in Germany speaks to the appeal of the new model. For investors, the question now is how many devices Apple can deliver by Christmas.

The Christmas trading period carries particular weight for Apple. In the previous December quarter, the group generated revenue of USD 143.8 billion, representing around 30% of total annual revenue of USD 479 billion. The period has also recently been favourable on the stock market. According to Bloomberg, the shares gained an average of 9.24% from October to December over the past 5 years. Four of the five quarters ended in positive territory.

For the current quarter, Apple is forecasting revenue growth of 7 to 10% to USD 153.8 to 158.1 billion. Consensus previously forecast 6.1% growth. CFO Kevan Parekh expects the highest quarterly revenue in the company's history, already factoring in ongoing supply constraints. Some Duo orders are therefore unlikely to be recognised as revenue until the March quarter. The size of this backlog depends on how quickly Apple can increase unit volumes.

Alongside Duo, the new Siri could boost iPhone sales. On the iPhone, Apple Intelligence requires at least a 15 Pro or a compatible newer model. Analysts estimate that around 300 million users currently lack the right hardware. The more useful the AI features prove in everyday life, the more likely customers with older devices are to consider upgrading.

Additional momentum could come from China. Apple has announced that it will launch Apple Intelligence there in December with iOS 27.3, integrating Alibaba's Qwen AI model. Business in the region has already picked up. In Greater China, revenue rose by more than 20% to USD 17.5 billion in the September quarter. The AI launch therefore comes at a time when demand is already recovering.

As impressive as the revenue figures are, cost pressures are holding back profits. For the December quarter, Apple expects a gross margin of 45% to 46%. Analysts had assumed 46.3% on average. In the September quarter, the margin was 47.9%, with tariff refunds contributing around one percentage point. Higher memory prices and the costs of ramping up Siri AI are now the main factors weighing on margins. With quarterly revenue of around USD 156 billion, one percentage point of gross margin equates to roughly nine cents in earnings per share, all else being equal.

Apple is heading into the Christmas trading period with strong iPhone demand. The Duo expands the offering at the upper end of the price range, and the AI launch in China could prompt additional customers to upgrade their devices. In the short term, available unit volumes and memory prices set the pace. With an estimated P/E ratio of 36 for the coming year, the shares remain highly valued, but given the outstanding market position and good growth prospects, the stock remains promising. New investors with a long-term perspective can use pullbacks to build a position in stages. Existing investors should continue to hold.

Conclusion

With the start of production, Almonty has cleared its biggest operational hurdle of recent years. Regular deliveries and robust cash flows could give the shares fresh momentum following the share price decline. Almonty shares have by far the greatest upside potential of the trio presented. Given the ramp-up risk and dependence on the tungsten price, a phased entry is an option for speculative investors. Novo Nordisk is a recovery bet. The Wegovy tablet provides a concrete starting point, but its success must be reflected in the figures over several quarters. Apple remains an established quality stock. In the next report, the margin deserves at least as much attention as iPhone revenue.