July 20th, 2026 | 07:25 CEST
Gold: Positioning for the Fed with Equinox Gold, Lahontan Gold, and Aya Gold & Silver
The Federal Reserve's leadership will meet again on September 16, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. Some market analysts expect interest rate hikes. Conversely, however, some anticipate an interest rate cut—their argument: the US midterm elections are coming up in November. Donald J. Trump wants lower interest rates. He has already made this clear to the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, in a post on Truth Social. Our view is straightforward: low interest rates are bullish for the stock market. The past 18 months have shown that the President places considerable importance on supporting financial markets. The decision is likely to be a close one, however, and keeping rates unchanged should not be ruled out, especially since the Fed could still act at its October meeting. Either way, we expect interest rates to fall. By then at the latest, the price of gold should start to recover. For weeks, the precious metal has traded in a narrow range around USD 4,000 per ounce. Positive signals from the Fed could provide the catalyst for a breakout. For investors, however, gold mining stocks often offer greater upside than the metal itself. That is why we are taking a closer look at Equinox Gold, Lahontan Gold, and Aya Gold & Silver.
time to read: 5 minutes
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Author:
Tarik Dede
ISIN:
LAHONTAN GOLD CORP | CA50732M1014 | TSXV: LG , OTCQB: LGCXF , AYA GOLD + SILVER INC. | CA05466C1095 , EQUINOX GOLD CORP. NEW | CA29446Y5020
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Author
Tarik Dede
Even as a high school student in northern Germany, he developed a strong interest in the “Neuer Markt” and the dynamics of the equity markets. Small- and mid-cap companies were at the center of his focus from the very beginning. After completing his training as a certified bank clerk, he deepened his economic expertise through formal studies in economics as well as through various positions within Frankfurt’s financial sector. Today, he has been actively involved in the capital markets for more than 25 years, both professionally and as a private investor.
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Equinox Gold: Is the Sell-Off Over—or Just Beginning?
Shareholders of Equinox Gold have had little to celebrate in recent months. The gold producer's stock has been heavily sold off. Since its peak in late January, the company has lost more than half of its market capitalization. That is significantly more than comparable companies. Two factors are likely to be weighing on the stock. First, the Canadian company had very high production costs for many years. Management has since reported success in this area. With AISC costs of less than USD 2,000 per ounce of gold, the company is no longer far from the industry average. Second, the market's reaction to the more than USD 5 billion acquisition of Orla Mining, officially structured as a merger, has likely added further pressure. The transaction was financed almost entirely through a share exchange, and it appears that many former Orla shareholders had little interest in holding shares of the combined company, creating sustained selling pressure.
The acquisition was accompanied by the purchase of two gold mines. The Musselwhite Mine in Canada produced approximately 236,000 ounces last year. Camino Rojo in Mexico, in turn, produced about 97,000 ounces of the precious metal in 2025. The good news is that the acquisition is expected to be finalized this quarter. Equinox aims to produce 700,000 to 800,000 ounces of gold this year.
Should investors buy now? The answer is twofold. From an operational perspective, Equinox Gold appears to be on firmer footing. Technically, however, the picture remains weak. The stock has yet to show convincing signs of forming a bottom. Long-term investors may therefore be better off waiting for a clear technical base to develop before establishing a position.
Lahontan Gold: All Eyes Are on the Mineral Resource Estimate
Lahontan Gold shares are currently in a holding pattern. The stock has lost nearly 30% in line with the market, and is currently trading in a sluggish sideways range.
Operationally, however, all eyes are on the new resource estimate. The updated MRE is to be released soon. It is expected that, thanks to the extensive drilling at the flagship Santa Fe project, the company will report a significantly higher figure. The previous estimate, prepared in accordance with the Canadian NI 43-101 standard, totals approximately 1.95 million ounces of gold equivalent, of which 1.54 million ounces of gold equivalent are already classified in the higher-value "Indicated" category. The new data should place the figure well above that. The new resource estimate also lays the groundwork for a revised Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA). According to management, this is expected to be published in late summer.
This Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA)—a formal evaluation of a mining project's economic viability—is designed to determine whether building a mine is economically viable. In most cases, it serves as an early reality check. However, for a historic project like Santa Fe, where nearly 360,000 ounces of gold and 700,000 ounces of silver were produced between 1988 and 1995, it carries considerably greater significance. This is particularly true because Lahontan Gold has already completed a PEA for the project, which is now being updated. The previous study, dated December 2024, estimated a pre-tax net present value (NPV) of approximately USD 265.1 million (using a 5% discount rate). It projected a robust pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 41% and an after-tax IRR of 34.2%. Importantly, the gold price was significantly lower at that time, and the company is now likely to contain a larger resource. Both factors should significantly improve the project's economic metrics.
CEO Kimberly Ann discusses the key developments expected at Lahontan Gold over the coming months in an interview with Lyndsay Malchuk of the IIF.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRq4WtH82Rc
Overall, Lahontan Gold's Santa Fe project is a highly attractive gold deposit. Nevada offers excellent infrastructure thanks to its long-established mining industry. Experienced workers, power, water, and road access are all readily available. In addition, Nevada State Highway 361 runs directly south and southwest of the approximately 28 km² property. Importantly, Lahontan aims to make a construction decision as early as next year. The company's current market capitalization is equivalent to approximately EUR 95 million. If the upcoming MRE and the revised PEA turn out positively as expected, the stock could undergo its first meaningful re-rating.
Aya Gold & Silver: Silver Price Is Only Slightly Depressing
The mood on the silver market is gloomy. The price slipped below the USD 60 per ounce mark. It now looks like a capitulation. Apparently, even the last remaining silver investors are throwing in the towel, while the "strong hands" are now happy to snap up the ounces being sold off at this level. Fundamentally, it makes no sense for silver to be trading at such low levels. After all, there is a supply deficit on the global market, while demand is growing steadily. But market psychology plays a major role here. What has risen sharply often falls just as dramatically. For the management of silver companies, this market phase is a good time to stay calm. Ultimately, it is the fundamental facts that matter in the long run. The key is to tune out the short-term noise.
Aya Gold & Silver is currently performing well in this regard. Despite headwinds from the silver price, the stock is holding up relatively well in this market. The Canadian company had just posted a record first quarter, with massive gains in revenue (+244% to CAD 117 million) and net income (+600% to CAD 49 million). The extremely low production costs were particularly striking. The Canadian company produced at its mine in Morocco at cash costs of CAD 18.40 per ounce of AgEq. Growth in the coming years is expected to come from the second project, Boumadine.
Aya Gold & Silver has now provided an update on this deposit. According to the update, the company remains on track. An updated PEA is scheduled for publication in the second half of 2026. Work is also already underway on the more comprehensive feasibility study. Investors should expect this study to be released one year later. An extensive drilling program is also currently underway. According to management, more than 102,000 m of drilling had been completed by mid-July. Aya aims to drill 180,000 m for the full year. In addition to expanding the resource, the company intends to upgrade it to a higher category through so-called infill drilling.
The stock is a positive surprise in this market environment. Aya Gold & Silver is one of the few true silver miners on the market. For many, therefore, there is no way around this company.
Equinox Gold's chart does not yet provide a "Buy" signal. The picture may change with the announcement of the Q2 results. Lahontan Gold aims to start production quickly and will now lay the groundwork for mine construction with the new mineral resource estimate and the revised PEA. At Aya Gold & Silver, operations are running smoothly, and the stock is holding up well in this challenging market environment. For silver bulls, it is arguably one of the most attractive silver miners on the market.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a "Transaction"). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
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