GOLD ALERT! Trouble at Barrick? Opportunities Emerging in B2Gold and Desert Gold

Desert Gold: Multiplication Possible

Desert Gold has shown significant relative strength during the correction in gold stocks. This is not really surprising, as the company has initiated a revaluation with a strategic move. GBC Research recommends the stock as a "Buy". Analysts see the fair value at EUR 0.59 or CAD 0.69. The stock is currently trading at EUR 0.076. GBC thus believes Desert Gold has the potential to multiply in value.

And the analysts also explain the source of their optimism. Desert Gold is set to begin gold production this summer at the Barani East oxide gold project in Mali. As early as June, a small initial operation could process about 200 tons per day. By the fourth quarter, throughput could be increased to around 1,200 tons per day.

This is accompanied by a very manageable cost structure. According to the research, operating costs are around USD 1,110 per ounce. On the other hand, analysts are calculating with a very conservative selling price of USD 2,850 per ounce. This could generate around USD 33.06 million in revenue starting next year. Operating income (EBITDA) is then expected to be a robust USD 20.19 million. Over the modeled life of the mine, cumulative free cash flow thus totals more than USD 155.9 million. For context: Desert Gold is currently valued at just over EUR 20 million.

Yet Desert Gold has significantly larger projects. GBC points out that the current economic valuation covers only a fraction of the total potential. Click here for the full study.

Barrick Mining: Problems in Pakistan?

And what is Barrick Mining doing? Unlike Desert Gold, the industry heavyweight is not seen as having any relative strength. The stock plummeted from EUR 42 to EUR 34 in March. This can be attributed to the falling price of gold. However, "Bloomberg" also reports on problems in Pakistan.

According to the report, Barrick Mining has extended the review of the massive Reko Diq copper-gold project and slowed down development. The reasons cited are growing security concerns in the South Asian country and the Middle East. While the international public's focus is heavily on the war in Iran, an often-overlooked conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is escalating in parallel. Military incidents, airstrikes, and skirmishes occur repeatedly along the shared border, particularly in connection with militant groups. Both countries blame each other for the escalation. The tense security situation places an additional strain on the already fragile region. It carries the risk of further escalation, which has so far received significantly less geopolitical attention than the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

For Barrick Mining, the Reko-Diq project plays a key strategic role. It is one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits in the world. Its significant production and cash flow potential is expected to contribute significantly to Barrick's long-term growth. It strengthens Barrick's position in the copper segment, a key raw material for the energy transition, while also diversifying the portfolio beyond existing core regions.

Barrick told Bloomberg upon inquiry that the current situation will impact the group's budgets and timelines. The extended timeline will allow the mining company to further assess potential risks and refine its implementation strategy for the project.

B2Gold: Rebound after a 25% Drop?

B2Gold's stock has lost around 25% over the past four weeks. Looking back over the past 12 months, however, the stock still shows a solid gain of around 40%. While the company is practically a neighbor, and thus a potential buyer, of Desert Gold in Mali, it is also active in Canada. Most recently, B2Gold provided an exploration update on the Canadian Back River project, thereby stabilizing the stock's decline. In particular, the drill results at the Llama deposit within the Goose Mine confirm the high quality of the deposit. Among other things, intersections of up to 41.95 g/t gold over 13.7 m and 17.95 g/t over 38.2 m were intersected. The existing resource at Llama already comprises 760,000 ounces of gold (Indicated) at a grade of 7.72 g/t, as well as an additional 637,000 ounces (Inferred) at 11.0 g/t. These results support a potential resource upgrade and improve the predictability of future mining operations.

The Nuvuyak deposit also provides strong evidence for further growth. Here, high-grade mineralization has been confirmed over significant distances, such as 6.65 g/t gold over 27.28 m at a depth of more than 1,000 m. The deposit already has an inferred resource of approximately 700,000 ounces of gold at 8.26 g/t and could potentially extend the life of the Goose Mine. Although Nuvuyak is not yet part of the official mine plan, it is considered one of the most important exploration targets in the district.

For 2026, B2Gold plans a significant expansion of its activities and is allocating a total of USD 46 million for exploration. Of this amount, USD 24 million is earmarked for the Goose Mine, where approximately 17,200 m of drilling is planned to expand the Llama deposit and further develop targets such as Nuvuyak. An additional USD 22 million will be allocated to regional exploration, with an extra 12,800 m of drilling planned for projects such as George, Boot, and Boulder. With this extensive program, B2Gold aims to both expand existing resources and drive new discoveries, thereby laying the foundation for long-term production growth.**

Desert Gold is arguably the most leveraged play among the three stocks. After a prolonged period of weakness, the stock is showing renewed momentum, demonstrating relative strength during the gold correction, and may still be in the early stages of its revaluation. Barrick remains a core investment in the sector; however, developments in Pakistan should be closely monitored, as major disruptions on the ground could impact the broader group and its share price. B2Gold appears to be regaining operational momentum.