Gold: A Catalyst for Takeovers, with No Reversal in Sight—Commerzbank, Lahontan Gold, Renk, UniCredit

Commerzbank: Is the German Government Now Opening the Door for UniCredit?

A new development is emerging in the takeover battle for Commerzbank (WKN: CBK100 | ISIN: DE000CBK1001 | Ticker: CBK). The German government had previously firmly rejected the bid by the Italian UniCredit (WKN: A2DJV6 | ISIN: IT0005239360 | Ticker Symbol: CRIN). Now, however, Berlin appears to be adopting a more pragmatic stance. Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently stated that the government does not intend to block a takeover. This could mean that one of the most significant political hurdles for UniCredit is losing its importance. However, there is still no question that the federal government will give its approval or sell its stake. Germany continues to hold approximately 12% of Commerzbank and rejected the takeover offer, deeming the price too low and taking issue with UniCredit's approach. According to media reports, the federal government is now preparing potential demands for future negotiations.

These could include maintaining an independent stock market listing in Frankfurt, continuing the international branch business, and a higher price for Commerzbank shares. However, there reportedly is no unified position within the federal government yet. Concrete negotiations between Berlin and UniCredit have also not been confirmed. The major Italian bank has already secured a strong position. By the end of the extended acceptance period on July 3, 17.60% of Commerzbank's shares had been tendered. Together with its directly held stake of 26.77% and financial instruments representing an additional 3.22%, UniCredit's total stake amounts to 47.59% of the share capital. Since Commerzbank's treasury shares do not carry voting rights, this corresponds to 49.65% of the voting rights. However, the transfer of the tendered shares remains subject to the necessary regulatory approvals.

Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp views the low level of support from independent investors as confirmation of the bank's independent course. According to the bank, less than 2% of the shares were tendered by institutional and retail investors. The majority came from banks and parties that acted as counterparties to UniCredit derivatives. Management is therefore sticking to its "Momentum 2030" strategy but remains open in principle to constructive dialogue. For investors, the situation remains complex. The original offer consisted of 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share and thus had no fixed equivalent value in euros. Since the acceptance period has now expired, shares that were not tendered in the first place can no longer be exchanged under these terms in the future. The current Commerzbank share price therefore does not allow for a direct assessment of the value investors assign to the earlier offer.

On Tuesday, July 21, 2026, Commerzbank shares were trading just below EUR 37. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained 1.4%, while over a 52-week period, it has risen by approximately 29%. The market capitalization currently stands at about EUR 41.6 billion. The German government's shift in stance is keeping takeover speculation alive, but has not yet triggered a significant revaluation. The key question remains whether UniCredit will offer a higher price and whether Berlin will make firm commitments. New fundamental catalysts are expected on August 6 with the release of second-quarter earnings.

Lahontan Gold: Nevada - The Path to Gold Production

After the gold price doubled from late 2024 to early 2026 to just under USD 5,600 per ounce, the gold market has entered a correction phase. For nearly two months, the price has been stabilizing, attempting to form a bottom between USD 3,940 and USD 4,300. This puts the precious metal at the same level as in November 2025, and there is certainly no sign of a crash. Despite price pullbacks of up to 30% from the peak, technical analysis indicates only a long-overdue correction following a strong rally. The geopolitical landscape—with the escalation of war in the Middle East and the massive indebtedness of many nations, coupled with ever-increasing defense budgets—also sends a clear message that the flight to gold—or, as some critics have called it, "a relic of barbaric times"—will continue. This is also reflected in central bank data, where China remains the largest buyer of gold and is steadily reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds.

In this environment, Lahontan Gold (WKN: A3DKKY | ISIN: CA50732M1014 | Ticker Symbol: Y2F) has positioned itself as a potential gold producer in Nevada. The Santa Fe Project is the cornerstone of the exploration company's growth strategy. Over the next 18 months, the company aims to transition from explorer to gold producer and bring the former gold-and-silver mine back into production. Thanks to the existing infrastructure and historical production data, the risk profile is significantly lower than that of pure greenfield projects, as the financial outlay is lower and existing permits "only" need to be renewed. Nevertheless, financing the project remains a key issue. The current CAPEX estimate of approximately USD 135 million is to be financed primarily through debt. The new mineral resource estimate (MRE), the revised preliminary economic assessment (PEA) scheduled for September 2026, and the subsequent investment decision will mark major turning points for the company and potential investors this year. Since Nevada is one of the most attractive mining regions in the US, the Santa Fe Project has thus far received regulatory support from the relevant authorities.

The Santa Fe Project's resource base has long been an integral part of the company's valuation, although there is still ample room for growth. The indicated resource to date is reported at approximately 1.539 million ounces of gold equivalent, and the inferred resource at an additional 411,000 ounces. This brings the project close to the two-million-ounce mark—an indicator that often sparks M&A interest from larger mining companies in the industry. Thanks to the more than 87 new drill holes that Lahontan has already completed in 2026, this mark could even be surpassed for the first time. The latest drill results, such as those in the Calvada section, which yielded significant gold intervals, at least support the potential for further resource expansion. This should also have a positive impact on project financing, which CEO Kimberly Ann is aiming to secure by the end of 2026.

Here, Lahontan's CEO intends to structure the construction costs with approximately 80% debt and 20% equity. At the current share price of approximately CAD 0.34, the dilution would be noticeable but manageable. Furthermore, due to the project's high profitability, the debt would be repaid quickly, thereby increasing the value for all shareholders. However, should further positive drill results and the upcoming new MRE and PEA continue to boost the company's valuation, the dilution effects would correspondingly become increasingly minor. In this light, Lahontan presents an interesting investment thesis: transforming from a high-risk exploration stock to a producer in one of North America's most politically stable mining regions within 18 months.

RENK: No Trend Reversal in Sight—Will It Now Hit the 52-Week Low?

RENK shares (WKN: RENK73 | ISIN: DE000RENK730 | Ticker: R3NK) remain technically battered despite positive operational news. Trading at around EUR 44.60, the stock is below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Since the start of the year, the stock has fallen by about 18%; over the past twelve months, the decline has even reached around 37%. The market capitalization has thus fallen to around EUR 4.39 billion. The downtrend began as early as the fall of 2025 and accelerated significantly in November. Since then, brief recoveries have repeatedly been followed by new waves of selling. Even the rebound in early July was quickly sold off. The stock is once again approaching its 52-week low. Therefore, there is no sign yet of a confirmed trend reversal. For that to happen, the price would first have to hold a higher low and sustainably reclaim at least the 50-day moving average.

Fundamentally, the picture is much more positive. RENK increased revenue by 19.8% to EUR 1.37 billion in 2025. Adjusted EBIT rose to EUR 230.4 million, while the order backlog reached EUR 6.68 billion at year-end. In the first quarter of 2026, new orders rose by 6.1% to EUR 582.3 million. Revenue grew by 4% to EUR 283.6 million, and adjusted EBIT increased by 10.4% to EUR 42.4 million. The margin improved from 14.1% to 15%. However, there are also areas of weakness. In the Marine & Industry segment, quarterly revenue fell by 10.8% due to customer delays and a supplier bottleneck. Furthermore, only EUR 2.58 billion of the EUR 6.9 billion order backlog consists of firm orders. EUR 3.46 billion is attributable to the less binding "soft order backlog." Despite profit growth, free cash flow fell from EUR 87.4 million to EUR 66.9 million in 2025, as more capital was tied up in working capital.

Strategically, RENK is strengthening its marine business through the planned acquisition of David Brown Defence. The British company brings an order pipeline of more than GBP 700 million through 2030, as well as access to key naval programs in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. The purchase price has not been disclosed, making it difficult to assess the financial implications at this time. For 2026, RENK continues to expect revenue of more than EUR 1.5 billion and adjusted EBIT of EUR 255-285 million. However, with an expected P/E ratio of around 32, the stock is not yet a classic bargain. For 2027, the P/E ratio will drop to about 23—assuming the expected increase in earnings is actually achieved. The next key development will come with the half-year results on August 6.

UniCredit is gradually increasing its stake in Commerzbank, and the German federal government is also sending increasingly positive signals regarding its willingness to negotiate. The role of the new third-largest investor is also likely to be of interest, as the US financial group Jefferies Financial Group (WKN: A2JMVU | ISIN: US47233W1099 | Ticker Symbol: LN3) recently crossed the 10% threshold at Commerzbank, according to last week's voting rights notification.

Lahontan offers investors an attractive opportunity in the gold sector, as the company aims to transition from explorer to producer within 18 months. Accordingly, this roadmap offers clear potential for revaluation within a manageable timeframe.

Fundamentally, RENK appears more attractive following the price drop; technically, however, it remains a falling knife. Entering the position is therefore rather speculative. A sustained breakout above the 50-day moving average would be more convincing.