Evotec Shocks the Market! Will First Majestic Silver and Lahontan Gold Take Off?

Lahontan Gold: First Relative Strength, Then Outperformance?

Lahontan Gold offers attractive exposure to the gold price. The company is developing a comparatively low-risk gold production project in the US state of Nevada. The focus is on the historic Santa Fe Mine. According to management's plans, it is set to resume gold production as early as next year. CEO and founder Kimberly Ann highlights in particular the manageable capital requirements, low production costs, and a short payback period. The current resource totals a robust 2 million metric tons of gold equivalent. At the same time, the nearby West Santa Fe satellite project opens up additional growth potential. And then there are the historic heap leach pads, which management estimates could still contain more than 200,000 ounces of gold. Evaluation drilling is underway.

The application for the mine is scheduled to be submitted in the first quarter of 2027. Once all permits are in place, the mine is expected to be operational within just four to six months. The company benefits from its location: the 28.3 km² Santa Fe mine is situated within the Walker Lane Trend, one of the world's premier mining regions.

Production costs for the Santa Fe project are currently estimated at around USD 1,200 per ounce. It is no surprise, then, that founder and CEO Kimberly Ann has repeatedly pointed out that the company will "make a lot of money" once production begins. The planned financing also appears to be relatively manageable. Approximately USD 135 million is estimated for the ramp-up to production. The short payback period is particularly crucial for Kimberly Ann. She expects the invested capital to be recouped within 12 to 18 months. Given this profile, the CEO confidently asks, "Who wouldn't give us money for this?" The low production costs and expected cash flows could enable Lahontan Gold to repay the debt used for mine construction unusually quickly.

Lahontan's stock has been trading sideways since mid-March, demonstrating relative strength compared to the gold price and gold stocks. If sector sentiment improves, Lahontan is a strong candidate for outperformance.

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Evotec Shocks the Stock Market

Like gold and silver, the biotech sector is currently not a focus for investors. BioNTech and Evotec are prime examples of this. BioNTech had already spooked investors with announced plant closures. It was known that Evotec was undergoing a comprehensive restructuring. Nevertheless, it had recently appeared that the stock was finding a bottom in the EUR 4-5 range. Since Monday, however, this technical picture has become obsolete. The significant downward revision of the forecast and the expected high EBITDA loss have once again significantly intensified the downward pressure.

Following a weak first half of the year, Evotec has significantly lowered its outlook for 2026. Preliminary figures show the group generated revenue of approximately EUR 300.1 million and an adjusted EBITDA of minus EUR 42.7 million. For the full year, Evotec now expects revenue of only EUR 570-610 million and an adjusted EBITDA of EUR -70 to -105 million. Previously, the company had anticipated revenue of EUR 700-780 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 0-40 million. The main reasons are deferred milestone payments from existing partnerships and delays in new strategic collaborations. Approximately 40% of the revenue shortfall is expected to be deferred to 2027, while another 45% is attributable to partnerships that were concluded later than expected.

By contrast, the core business is performing well. Net sales in the Discovery & Preclinical Development segment rose by approximately 28% in the first half of the year. Evotec Biologics benefited from high capacity utilization and a growing customer base. In addition, the company reports that the Horizon transformation program is on track. Evotec aims to achieve 20% to 30% of the EUR 75 million in total cost savings targeted by the end of 2027 as early as 2026. CEO Christian Wojczewski emphasized that the downward revision of the forecast was primarily due to timing shifts and did not represent a reassessment of the long-term potential of the partner pipeline. Investors nevertheless reacted with shock.

First Majestic Silver: Will Production Figures Provide New Momentum?

First Majestic Silver's stock is also struggling at the moment. Although the share is still up about 11% for the current year, it was already trading above EUR 28 at the end of February. It currently stands at just under EUR 15.

Production figures for the second quarter of 2026 also failed to provide new momentum. Yet the operational performance was solid. Proportional silver production rose 3% year-over-year to 3.8 million ounces, while gold production increased by 2% to 34,660 ounces. In addition, the company produced 16.5 million pounds of zinc, 9.0 million pounds of lead, and approximately 253,000 pounds of copper. Santa Elena and La Encantada performed particularly well. CEO Keith Neumeyer spoke of another strong quarter. He emphasized that the company was able to make up for a large portion of the lost time despite work interruptions at San Dimas and a minor rockfall at Los Gatos.

First Majestic is also making progress on its growth projects. According to the company, the expansions of the processing facilities at Santa Elena and Los Gatos are on schedule and are expected to be completed in the third quarter. At Santa Elena, building permits for the Santo Niño and Navidad portals were also granted earlier than expected. Additional investments of USD 12 million are planned for further development in 2026. At the same time, the formerly active Del Toro mine was sold to Sierra Madre for consideration of up to USD 60 million, of which USD 30 million was paid as an upfront payment.

Due to its strong performance in the first half of the year, First Majestic has raised its production forecast for 2026. The company now expects to produce 14.6 to 15.5 million ounces of silver, up from the previous forecast of 13.0 to 14.4 million ounces, as well as 128,000 to 135,000 ounces of gold, up from 116,000 to 129,000 ounces. Forecasts for Santa Elena, Los Gatos, San Dimas, and La Encantada have also been raised. At the same time, the capital budget is increasing to USD 318–344 million, partly to fund the restart of Jerritt Canyon and other expansion projects.

Lahontan Gold has several potential catalysts for its share price. First and foremost, of course, is the start of production next year. Combined with low production costs, this should generate strong cash flows. In addition, the resource estimate could be further increased. And in the coming months, drill results could trigger sharp price jumps. First Majestic remains a core investment in the silver sector. If the silver price rises again, the stock should be able to gain disproportionately. At Evotec, the new management has now also disappointed market expectations. The stock is unlikely to recover from this anytime soon.