Desert Gold, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen and Evonik: Where is the stock market underestimating the potential?

Desert Gold: Upside potential of over 600% according to analysts

Desert Gold is focused on gold exploration in West Africa. The focus is on the 440 km² flagship SMSZ project in Mali, which contains a gold resource of around 1.3 million ounces, comprising 336,800 ounces of gold in the indicated category and a further 879,900 ounces in the inferred category. In the medium and long term, the company considers a gold resource of 2 million and 5 million ounces, respectively, to be possible.

In their latest study, analysts at research firm GBC calculate an intrinsic company value of USD 244.8 million. This translates into CAD 0.93 or EUR 0.59 per share. The analysts have also set these figures as their price target. Based on the current share price of CAD 0.125, this represents to upside of more than 600%. The market capitalisation stands at approximately CAD 45 million.

After delayed deliveries, supply bottlenecks and the rainy season weighed on the schedule in recent months, the focus is now on ramping up the processing plant at Barani East. The company will soon complete the transition from explorer to producer. The plant, designed to process 200 tonnes of material per day, arrived at the site in late summer. The company has indicated that the ramp-up and first gold recovery will take place by the end of the first quarter of 2027. This coming January, a 20,000 m drilling programme is also due to start to expand existing gold deposits and develop new resources.

The preliminary economic assessment (PEA) considers a larger operating scenario for Barani and Gourbassi, with daily throughput of around 1,200 tonnes and a 10-year operating life. The current 200-tonne plant is therefore merely a first development step. In addition, the sheer size of the SMSZ property and the fact that only a fraction of the project has been explored so far offer further potential.

To make a well-founded assessment of the company's medium-term potential, investors should also consider the 297 km² Tiegba option project in Côte d'Ivoire. Desert Gold sees significant exploration potential here, given the extensive gold anomalies. Progress and successes should also provide positive impetus for the share price.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen: Challenges Still Outweigh the Opportunities

The company is driving forward its transformation from a traditional printing press manufacturer into a diversified technology company. However, cost pressures, an unfavourable product mix and project delays are hampering and delaying the transformation process. After a disappointing first half, the company recently cut its full-year outlook. The shares fell to their current level of EUR 1.10, almost halving since the start of the year, giving the German company a market valuation of around EUR 330 million.

The new target for the adjusted EBITDA margin has been lowered to 5.6 to 6.6%. In its previous guidance, the company had held out the prospect of a "noticeable improvement" on the previous year's margin of 6.6%. Revenue is still expected to reach roughly the previous year's level of EUR 2.293 billion. In the first half, the operating margin stood at 3.7%, well below the previous year's 6.4%. The company will publish its half-year report on November 12.

By integrating manroland sheetfed's lifecycle business and POLAR's production activities, the group is strengthening its position in the printing and packaging market and expanding its high-margin service and systems business. At the same time, with sodium-ion battery storage systems and new activities in the security and defence sector, the company is tapping into additional growth markets. In doing so, the company is specifically drawing on its core competencies in mechanical engineering, precision manufacturing, electronics and automation. At the end of the day, however, it all has to pay off. Analysts are becoming more critical, and investors need patience.

Evonik: Business is improving

After a challenging phase, business performance at the internationally leading speciality chemicals group has recently improved significantly. Evonik specialises in high-quality chemical products and innovative materials for sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, construction, agriculture and consumer goods. The recently published figures for the third quarter of 2026 show a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA to EUR 629 million. The drivers were higher sales volumes and prices, as well as greater utilisation of key production facilities. At the same time, the group is accelerating job cuts and streamlining its structures through the "Evonik Tailor Made" efficiency programme to sustainably increase profitability.

By focusing on high-margin business areas and divesting less attractive activities, the portfolio is intended to become more competitive over the long term. The shares are currently receiving an additional speculative boost from BASF's takeover interest. Evonik currently opposes this but is keeping the possibility of further talks open. BASF had previously floated a possible purchase price of EUR 24 per share. The shares are currently trading at around EUR 21.

Conclusion

Desert Gold is pushing ahead with the final preparations for the planned start of gold production at the end of the first quarter of 2027. The production ramp-up and the upcoming drilling programme will create an exciting news flow for shareholders. GBC's analysts see upside potential of over 600%. Evonik's business is improving; will BASF soon offer more for the shares? Heidelberger Druck's restructuring is taking longer than expected. Investors must be patient.