Crash at Plug Power?! SFC Energy and AI profiteer American Atomics are looking strong!

American Atomics: Strong tailwind from the US government

The renaissance of nuclear energy is gaining momentum worldwide – not least because of the enormous demand for electricity from artificial intelligence and data centers. This is exactly where American Atomics comes into play. Founder Conor Lynch explained at the recent IIF investor conference that the company aims to play a central role in rebuilding an independent American nuclear fuel cycle. The background to this is a structural problem: while demand for nuclear energy is rising, there are bottlenecks along the entire supply chain worldwide – from uranium mining to conversion and enrichment. The US's dependence on imports is particularly critical, for example, in the case of highly enriched uranium for new small modular reactors (SMRs). American Atomics is therefore positioning itself as a strategic player in a market that is becoming increasingly important due to geopolitical tensions and rising energy demand.

The company's strategy is based on two pillars: raw material exploration and technology development. The focus is on the Lisbon Valley project in Utah, historically one of the most important uranium mining areas in the US. There, American Atomics is developing an area on the eastern side of the basin. Old drilling data from oil and gas exploration provides clues, showing unusually high radiation levels – a possible indication of large uranium deposits. If this assumption is confirmed, a new production center could be established, which would economically develop several smaller deposits in the region with a central processing plant. At the same time, the company is working on partnerships to efficiently build up processing technology and logistics.

In addition, American Atomics intends to develop and scale new technologies along the fuel cycle. The goal is to bring early-stage research – for example, from universities or national laboratories – to the pilot plant stage and then commercialize it with major industrial partners. American Atomics is receiving strong political support for its strategy. The US government is promoting the development of a national fuel supply and is using instruments such as the Defense Production Act to do so. American Atomics is part of an industrial consortium and works directly with government agencies. This presents an exciting entry opportunity for investors, as American Atomics is currently valued at less than CAD 20 million on the stock market.

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SFC Energy: Outlook surprisingly positive

After a difficult second half of 2025, SFC Energy's share price appears to be recovering in 2026. After the fuel cell specialist's stock had temporarily halved in value last year, it has already risen by around 22% in the current year. Most recently, the figures for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025 were well received on the stock market.

From the perspective of First Berlin analysts, 2025 was a transitional year for SFC Energy. At EUR 143.3 million, revenue was slightly below the previous year's level, while external factors such as one-time costs for ERP and IT security as well as postponed Indian defense orders weighed on profitability. Accordingly, adjusted EBITDA fell to EUR 16.7 million after EUR 22.0 million in the previous year. However, analysts view the final quarter as an important positive signal. Q4 was the strongest quarter of the year, with SFC returning to growth and operating earnings exceeding expectations. Against this backdrop, analysts have confirmed their "Buy" recommendation and raised the price target slightly from EUR 21 to EUR 22.

Analysts view SFC's outlook for 2026 positively. SFC is forecasting revenue of EUR 150 million to EUR 160 million for 2026, which is essentially in line with First Berlin's previous expectations. SFC is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of EUR 20 million to EUR 24 million. This was significantly above First Berlin's previous estimate and led to an increase in profit expectations. Analysts now expect revenue of EUR 154.3 million and net profit of EUR 7.7 million for 2026. The defense business is likely to be a key earnings driver in 2026. For 2027, analysts at SFC expect sales to rise to EUR 175.9 million and net profit to reach EUR 10.9 million. This corresponds to earnings per share of EUR 0.61. On Friday, SFC shares were trading at EUR 15.44.

Plug Power: Recovery already over?

Is the recovery in Plug Power's share price already over? After the hydrogen specialist's stock climbed from USD 1.80 to USD 2.48 in the first trading days of last week, it was unable to maintain this level, losing almost 7% on Friday alone and ending the week at USD 2.13.

The reason for the price increase was Plug Power's figures for Q4 and the full year 2025. Investors had likely feared worse. Plug Power increased its revenue by 12.9% to around USD 710 million in the full year 2025. In Q4, it even rose by 17.6%. From Plug Power's perspective, the improvement in profitability is remarkable. Plug Power achieved a positive gross margin of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, after posting a massive negative margin of -122.5% in the same quarter of the previous year. Plug Power also considers itself to be in a better position in terms of liquidity and cash management. At the end of 2025, the company had USD 368.5 million in freely available liquid funds.

However, these funds are urgently needed, as operating cash flow was USD -535.8 million. In 2024, it was USD -728.6 million. In addition, an announced transaction to monetize assets is expected to generate more than USD 275 million, supporting the expansion of US data centers and strengthening short-term liquidity.

Plug Power has confirmed its forecast. It aims to achieve positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026. EBIT is expected to be in the black by the end of 2027, and the company also aims to achieve a positive net result by the end of 2028. With a net loss of EUR 1.7 billion in 2025 and given that Plug Power has never been profitable, the forecast can be considered very optimistic, to say the least. Shareholders have recognized this as well, causing the stock to lose momentum again at the end of the week. Plug Power has a market capitalization of approximately USD 2.97 billion.

There are several good reasons to buy the shares of American Atomics. The US needs its own uranium supply. The Trump administration has recognized this need and is supporting the sector. At the same time, American Atomics is developing an interesting area, plans to earn money along the value chain, and does not appear to be expensive. Plug Power remains expensive. It is doubtful whether the company will actually succeed in becoming profitable by the end of 2028. Even if it does, it will need at least one major capital increase before then. SFC Energy shares appear to have found a bottom.