China's Tungsten Grip Begins to Loosen—Almonty Industries Strengthens Defence Supply Chains as RENK and Boeing Secure Multi-Billion-Dollar Orders

Almonty Industries: A Reassessment of a Critical Raw Materials Producer

The tungsten markets are currently undergoing a remarkable transformation, and Almonty Industries is positioning itself as one of the main beneficiaries of this development. The company's recent operational momentum impressively underscores this thesis. The commissioning of the processing plant at the Sangdong Mine in early July marks the transition from the development phase to the production phase in South Korea. This was a decisive step that brings the company closer to full commercial production. With an existing ore reserve of approximately 140,000 metric tons and a current market environment that is historically favourable, Almonty has a solid foundation to generate revenue in the third quarter of 2026.

Almonty's strategic importance is underscored by the recent contract extension with Global Tungsten & Powders. The extension of the offtake agreement from 15 to 21 years, coupled with a 40% increase in total volume and improved terms, demonstrates customers' confidence in the company's long-term supply capabilities. This agreement, combined with the company's inclusion in the Russell indices at the end of June, enhances its visibility among institutional investors. At the same time, the company will voluntarily delist from the TSX, thereby shifting its focus definitively to the US. Analysts view the strengthened balance sheet following the recent capital raise positively, as reflected in higher price targets.

The brokerage firms Cantor Fitzgerald and D.A. Davidson have recently revised their ratings for Almonty upward. Cantor Fitzgerald continues to see buying potential, with a price target of USD 25.50, and emphasizes the company's strategic importance as a reliable supplier outside China. D.A. Davidson is even more optimistic, with a price target of USD 33 based on raised earnings estimates. The analysts highlight the positive development of the Sangdong mine, the expected involvement of the US government, and the robust balance sheet with approximately USD 850 million in cash. Should current tungsten prices remain at high levels, both firms see further upside potential for the stock. The share is currently trading at around USD 13.77.

RENK Group: Record Half-Year

The ongoing defence boom has delivered a record half-year in operations for RENK. The Augsburg-based drivetrain specialist reports an order backlog of nearly EUR 7 billion, meaning the majority of expected revenue for the coming years is already secured. The first half of 2026 went exactly according to plan. Adjusted EBIT once again grew significantly faster than revenue, driven by the Vehicle Mobility Solutions segment. Major orders for programs such as the Puma and the framework agreement for the Lynx program underscore sustained demand. Management is therefore confidently reaffirming its full-year forecast and targeting the upper end of the earnings range.

With the acquisition of David Brown Defence, RENK is building a strategic bridge into the naval business. The long-established British company opens the door to long-term procurement programs in the Five Eyes nations, including the Global Combat Ship frigates and highly specialized submarine propulsion systems. This technology, which was not previously part of the portfolio, secures an order pipeline of over 700 million pounds through 2030. RENK is thus diversifying its risk, tapping into high-margin aftermarket potential, and solidifying its international market leadership in defence gearboxes without becoming dependent on economic fluctuations in the civilian sector.

Despite the impressive surge in orders, structural challenges remain. Tied-up working capital exceeded 27% of revenue last year. This is a clear indication of lower operational efficiency compared to established competitors. The return on capital is only in the low single digits, which puts the overly optimistic valuation expectations of the recent past into perspective. To sustainably meet these high expectations, RENK must reduce its tied-up capital and better leverage economies of scale in manufacturing. The half-year report on August 6 will provide the first insight into concrete progress. The share is currently trading at around EUR 43.335.

Boeing's Production Turnaround and Prospects Worth Billions

Boeing will once again be able to independently determine the airworthiness of its 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Following the safety turmoil of recent years, this is a true milestone for the company. Previously, since September 2025, inspections had been conducted on a weekly rotation between the regulatory agency and the manufacturer. The return to self-certification not only accelerates the delivery process but also reduces costs. Added to this is the launch of a fourth final assembly line in Everett, which significantly increases production capacity for the 737 MAX. The FAA also raised the cap on MAX production to 47 aircraft per month, with the prospect of reaching 52 units.

Boeing's long-term outlook remains intact. The company forecasts demand for nearly 44,000 new commercial aircraft by 2045, driven by annual passenger growth of 4%. At the same time, major lessors such as AerCap are showing interest in additional Dreamliners, which would strengthen the wide-body order book. In the defence segment, Boeing is benefiting significantly from rising defence spending. Production of PAC-3 guided missiles has increased by 30%, with further increases planned. Global rearmament and the demand for modern fighter jets are opening up additional revenue streams for the company.

The operational recovery is reflected in the delivery figures: 314 commercial aircraft in the first half of 2026 mark the best result since 2018. The key driver for the balance sheet is the ramp-up in production. If production expands to over 60 aircraft per month, Boeing can spread its fixed costs across a larger volume, and the operating margin is expected to rise significantly. Analysts see further upside potential for the share price if production targets are sustainably met. The debt burden of approximately USD 43 billion can be gradually reduced through rising deliveries and the resulting cash flow. The share is currently trading at around USD 214.03.

The ramp-up of tungsten production in Sangdong weakens China's strategic stranglehold, while Western defence contractors stand to benefit. Almonty Industries is breaking the Chinese monopoly with the Sangdong mine and is valued by analysts at a significant premium. RENK is securing its future with record orders but is struggling with tied-up operating capital. Boeing is returning to self-certification and increasing production following the crisis, while debt reduction continues. Global defence spending and the demand for critical raw materials remain the key drivers behind these premium valuations.