Breakthroughs, Production Launches and Billion-Dollar Contracts – Almonty Industries, Secunet Security Networks, Viking Therapeutics

Viking Therapeutics on the Verge of a Breakthrough: Will VK2735 Take on Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly?

A single data point has catapulted the stock of Viking Therapeutics (WKN: A12GD6 | ISIN: US92686J1060 | Ticker: 1VT) out of its months-long sideways trend. Following new results for the weight-loss injection VK2735, the share price jumped by around 32% at one point on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the stock peaked at USD 42.92, coming within just a few cents of its 52-week high of USD 43.15. But do the study results justify this revaluation?

VK2735 simultaneously activates the GLP-1 and GIP receptors, thereby directly targeting the mechanism of action of Eli Lilly's billion-dollar drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. During the 21-week induction phase, participants lost an average of about 16 to 19% of their body weight, depending on the dosage. No sign of the effect leveling off was yet apparent. A small control group that continued the weekly treatment even achieved 21.7% weight loss after 33 weeks.

The real driver of the share price, however, was the subsequent maintenance phase. With one injection every two weeks, up to 97% of the previously achieved weight loss was maintained. With just one monthly dose, the figure was up to 90%, while the group switched to placebo maintained only 61%. At the same time, gastrointestinal side effects such as nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea remained roughly at placebo levels during this phase.

This is precisely where Viking's competitive advantage could lie. Fewer injections would simplify treatment, increase adherence, and potentially reduce long-term costs. This is crucial in a market whose global annual revenue could rise to around USD 100 billion within the coming decade. In addition, Viking is developing a tablet form of VK2735. In a Phase 2 trial, this formulation resulted in an average weight loss of up to 12.2% after 13 weeks. A Phase 3 trial of the oral formulation is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. With this, Viking is challenging the market leaders on two fronts.

However, Viking remains a clinical-stage biotechnology company without an approved product. The two Phase 3 trials, VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2, are fully enrolled, but key data are not expected until 2027 at the earliest. Until then, cash burn will increase significantly.

In the first half of 2026, research and development expenses climbed to USD 265.9 million, while the net loss more than doubled to USD 286.3 million. As of the end of June, the company still had USD 502 million in cash and short-term investments available.

At USD 38.00, Viking has a market capitalization of approximately USD 4.6 billion. From a technical analysis perspective, the resistance zone between USD 40 and USD 43.15 has been reached. A sustained break above this level could extend the rally. If, on the other hand, the price falls below the daily low of USD 37.71, there is a risk that the price gap that has formed could partially close toward USD 34. The data is strong—now Viking must prove that VK2735 also delivers in Phase 3.

Almonty Enters a New Phase with Sangdong

Tungsten is one of the most strategically sensitive industrial metals. This is primarily because Western supply chains rely heavily on China for critical intermediate products. It is precisely in this environment that Almonty Industries (WKN: A414Q8 | ISIN: CA0203987072 | Ticker: ALI1) has risen to become a global player over the past two years. With the final operational certification for the processing plant at the Sangdong project in South Korea, Phase I production is now officially in commercial operation. This is more than just an operational milestone, as starting in January 2027, the US will tighten its procurement rules for defense material and require traceability all the way back to the mine. This significantly increases the strategic importance of non-Chinese suppliers of tungsten concentrate.

Sangdong is particularly important to Almonty because Phase I production has already shifted to a largely contractually secured sales model. The offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a subsidiary of the Plansee Group, runs for 21 years and covers a total of 4,410,000 MTU of tungsten concentrate. Once full-scale production is achieved, at least 210,000 MTU are to be delivered annually. According to the company, the contract thus covers more than 90% of Phase I production. In a market characterized by high tungsten prices and geopolitically driven stockpiling, the marketing risk is limited to the remaining 10% of production.

In addition, Almonty is continuing to expand its operational base outside South Korea and diversify its operations. In Spain, Almonty signed a long-term take-or-pay contract with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten (WBH), a Sandvik subsidiary, to restart the Los Santos operation by processing existing tailings piles. In return, Almonty will receive a one-time payment of USD 3 million and will supply at least 1,720 metric tons of ore containing tungsten trioxide (WO₃). At the same time, the company has expanded its operations to Rwanda. There, it plans to collect and process tungsten-bearing ore and pre-concentrates from small-scale mining operations, based on a 75/25 partnership structure with the Rwandan government. Strategically, Almonty is thus evolving from primary production through the processing of secondary materials into a tungsten platform company.

On the capital market, this strategic shift is already beginning to be reflected in analysts' estimates. Jefferies rates the stock a "Buy" with a price target of USD 26.25, while D.A. Davidson rates it a "Buy" with a price target of USD 33.00—a good 25% higher. Both assessments reflect the expectation that the market has not yet fully priced in the potential for further expansion or the value of the additional projects in Europe and Africa. Technically, the stock has recently stabilized above the USD 12.70 support zone, even though it has not been able to sustainably break through the USD 16.60 resistance level. The bottom line is that Almonty is evolving from a project-driven story into an increasingly diversified Western tungsten producer with clear geopolitical leverage.

Secunet Soars: Will the EUR 1.7 Billion Bundeswehr Deal Trigger the Next Rally?

Secunet Security Networks (WKN: 727650 | ISIN: DE0007276503 | Ticker: YSN) shares really took off on Wednesday. At times, the German cybersecurity specialist gained more than 15% and reached a new 52-week high of EUR 254.50. The catalyst is a potential billion-euro contract from the Bundeswehr that could fundamentally change the company's scale. But has too much of the future already been priced in following the surge?

According to a document obtained by Reuters, the Bundestag's Budget Committee is set to approve a framework agreement worth up to EUR 1.7 billion. Secunet is to modernize the encryption of the Bundeswehr's communications and data networks. Among other things, the plan includes expanding the Secure Inter-Network Architecture (SINA). It will also include planning, maintenance, training, and repairs. The contract is set to run for four years and build on an existing partnership.

An initial call-off worth just over EUR 100 million could begin as early as 2027. A comparison of scales illustrates just how massive the total package would be. For 2026, Secunet expects consolidated revenue of only between EUR 460 and 500 million. The potential contract volume would thus be more than three times the company's annual revenue and would even exceed its current market capitalization of approximately EUR 1.60 billion.

Operationally, the potential Bundeswehr deal comes at a time when the company has already gained significant momentum. In the first half of 2026, order intake rose 78.7% to EUR 287.4 million. The order backlog increased by 29.4% to EUR 360.8 million. Revenue rose 19.2% to EUR 204.7 million, while EBIT climbed 20.4% to EUR 8.7 million. The Defense & Space segment performed particularly well. The public sector contributed approximately 94% of half-year revenue, totaling EUR 192.7 million. This concentration is both a strength and a risk: While high security requirements create significant barriers to entry, delays in political decisions or budget approvals have a direct impact on Secunet.

Nevertheless, these opportunities do not guarantee revenue. The EUR 1.7 billion figure represents the maximum volume of a framework agreement. The decisive factors will be the amounts the German Armed Forces actually call off, how quickly Secunet can deliver, and what margins remain after the necessary expansion of personnel and capacity.

Following the rally, the valuation is becoming challenging. At EUR 248.5, Secunet has a P/E ratio of around 47. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has broken through the previous resistance zone between EUR 235 and 245 and is trading well above the key moving averages. A sustained breakout above EUR 255 could pave the way toward EUR 280. If, on the other hand, the price falls back below EUR 220, a pullback to the range between EUR 200 and 210 would be possible. The billion-euro contract could propel Secunet to a whole new level—but only the actual order calls will show whether the stock will become the next big winner from the Bundeswehr's rearmament.

Viking Therapeutics impresses with strong data for VK2735, but must still confirm the success of its obesity therapy in Phase 3. With the start of production in Sangdong, Almonty Industries is becoming a strategically important Western tungsten supplier. Secunet could grow to a whole new level thanks to a Bundeswehr framework agreement worth up to EUR 1.7 billion, but the actual call-offs remain crucial.