BioNTech seeks a breakthrough with its cancer pipeline, DroneShield battles short sellers and Cardiol Therapeutics targets a rebound!

BioNTech: Between clinical collaborations and unresolved strategic questions

BioNTech is moving cautiously in the current, challenging market environment. Following earlier price pullbacks, the shares are trading around the EUR 79 mark. The stock has suffered for months from fading expectations for the COVID-19 business and has yet to prove itself sustainably in mRNA cancer therapies. Recent trial data, such as the missed primary endpoint in the AHEAD-MERIT trial in head and neck cancer, have prompted investor scepticism, even as ongoing studies continue to monitor overall survival.

Financially, the Mainz-based company is well positioned, with cash and liquid assets of around EUR 16.6 billion, which also provide a substantial buffer, but the strategic realignment is causing noticeable unease on the stock market. The founders' planned departure and internal restructuring raise pressing questions about the future direction and the preservation of valuable know-how. At the same time, management is trying to provide fresh impetus through clinical collaborations, such as the recent partnership with Gilead to jointly investigate Pumitamig in breast cancer.

Despite this operational dry spell, analysts take a rather cautious to slightly optimistic view of the stock and cite consensus targets averaging EUR 104. The strong cash position provides a solid foundation for ongoing research, but concrete evidence of clinical breakthroughs remains the decisive hurdle for a lasting trend reversal. Investors should weigh the forthcoming quarterly results and upcoming specialist conference presentations carefully.

Technically, a rise above the EUR 80 mark could unleash fresh momentum. An attempt to break through the two SMAs (200-day at EUR 84.10, 50-day at EUR 86.25) could then follow. If these are overcome, the price could continue towards EUR 98 to EUR 102. However, the price should not fall below EUR 74 again, or a slide towards EUR 65–70 could loom.

DroneShield: Defence specialist battles short-selling pressure and rising costs

Australian counter-drone specialist DroneShield has come under increasing fire and, in recent weeks and months, has also faced stock market pressure, with the current share price of around EUR 0.92 having suffered massive losses of over 50% since the start of the year. The gap to the high in September/October 2025, when shares traded at EUR 3.78, is even wider. Alongside waning interest, one could already speak of a certain "lack of interest" in the formerly hyped drone theme; the persistent downtrend is also driven by aggressive short sellers, who have built up short interest of around 16%. The current share price therefore also reflects pronounced scepticism about DroneShield's near-term business momentum.

Operationally, the company reported committed revenue of AUD 261 million for the current year, confirming the previous guidance range of AUD 250 million to AUD 270 million but not raising it. However, critical analysts point out that operating expenses are rising faster than revenue, which has temporarily weighed on the gross margin, bringing it down to around 60%. Although recurring revenue from subscription-based services increased by 229% to AUD 11.5 million, the generally "limited visibility" for the coming year is dampening optimism.

Despite technological advances and continuous software updates, the stock remains a highly speculative investment in the global defence industry for now. Although average analyst price targets signal theoretical upside potential, a breakthrough above the psychologically important EUR 1.00 mark is likely to prove difficult without measurable margin improvements. Investors must therefore prepare for continued volatility. A short squeeze could drive the price higher if shares can break above EUR 1.20. That momentum might then also make prices in the region of EUR 1.60 – 1.80 possible.

As mentioned, the stock remains an exciting but highly speculative proposition, particularly given that its market capitalisation still exceeds EUR 800 million. The valuation was ambitious and remains so to some extent. The company must now demonstrate in its upcoming results that it can grow into its valuation.

Cardiol Therapeutics: Historical bottom reached! If it holds, the stock should be ready for a technical rebound!

Cardiol Therapeutics is in a classic transitional phase, in which the share, now at CAD 1.66 following a pronounced downward trend, has landed on a historically stable support zone around CAD 1.50 (see chart). The prolonged downward trend is now noticeably losing strength, and the intact upward trend line could give the price the support it needs for a fundamental trend reversal. Market observers are therefore watching for possible rebounds toward CAD 1.80 to CAD 2.00, independent of potential company-specific catalysts.

The biotech company specialising in inflammatory heart diseases has strengthened its balance sheet through successful warrant exercises, raising over USD 7 million in additional capital and thereby further strengthening its financial runway. In addition, the original recruitment target of 110 patients for the pivotal Phase III Mavric trial in recurrent pericarditis was reached ahead of schedule and expanded to up to 150 patients. A blinded data review showed surprisingly few recurrences, so the company is targeting topline results for mid-2027.

The pipeline is complemented by positive data from the ARCHER programme in acute myocarditis, which demonstrated significant reductions in left ventricular mass of 9.2 g and show parallels with established cardiovascular therapies. With a potential market opportunity in recurrent pericarditis of over USD 1 billion in the US alone, Cardiol Therapeutics offers a highly promising outlook for risk-tolerant investors. Its financial resources and upcoming clinical milestones underpin the long-term potential following the recent share price pullback.
Based solely on technical indicators, and without factoring in potential company-specific catalysts, a move above the CAD 1.65–1.70 price zone could signal a rebound toward CAD 2.00. Exciting! It is important that the share price can actually form a stable base here in the area above CAD 1.50.

Conclusion

BioNTech impresses with a comfortable cash position, but urgently needs new clinical successes in oncology to regain investor confidence sustainably. While DroneShield is delivering revenue commitments as planned, it continues to struggle with pressure on margins and from short selling, which is still preventing a sustained uptrend for now. Cardiol Therapeutics shows exciting rebound opportunities at the technical support level of CAD 1.50 and has promising catalysts in cardiology.