Amazon, Volatus Aerospace and SUSS Microtec: Three Stocks, One Pattern - And Up To 100% Upside Potential

Amazon: When Investments Dampen the Celebrations

Amazon's quarterly results made a huge splash at the end of July. With earnings of USD 5.75 per share, the world's largest online retailer more than tripled analysts' estimates of USD 1.82. Revenue for the second quarter totaled USD 200.6 billion, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. Revenue from the AWS cloud division grew by 37% to USD 42.2 billion, the fastest pace since 2021. The initial reaction was correspondingly euphoric: the stock jumped by double digits and hit a new all-time high of USD 287 on August 4.

Since then, the momentum has faded. The share is currently trading at around USD 261, a good 9% below its record high. The reason: Amazon announced an increase in capital expenditures for 2026 from USD 200 billion to USD 220 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure and in-house chips such as Trainium. As a result, free cash flow turned negative for the first time since 2023, even though cash flows from operating activities had risen by 33% to USD 161.4 billion. Back in February, an increase in the capital expenditure budget had already triggered an 11% drop in the share price; this time, the initial reaction was the opposite—but skepticism returned after a delay. The market is clearly struggling to determine whether massive AI investments should be viewed as a promise of growth or as a burden. Analysts, however, remain confident. On average, they consider the stock fairly valued at USD 335—representing about 25% upside relative to the current price.

SUSS MicroTec: Strong Order Book, Cautious Outlook

This tug-of-war was also evident with the German TecDAX-listed company SUSS MicroTec. On August 6, the semiconductor equipment supplier from Garching near Munich reported revenue of EUR 116.2 million for the second quarter—a 34% increase from the first quarter, but an 18% decline from the same period last year.

The real highlight was in new orders. At EUR 260.7 million, they climbed 75% compared to the already record-strong previous quarter, driven in part by a major order worth EUR 115 million from a customer expanding its capacity for advanced chip packaging. Approximately EUR 220 million of the order backlog is already earmarked for deliveries in 2027. This makes it clear that the temporary slump in orders has been overcome. The stock initially reacted positively, reaching just under EUR 87 in Xetra trading on August 17. Since then, it has been on a downward trend. Currently, the share price is hovering around EUR 70—a far cry from the record high of EUR 118.50 set in June.

Two reasons are likely responsible for this. First, despite strong orders, management has deliberately remained cautious and has not raised its forecast for the current year. This is because the company is set to make a major investment of EUR 45 million to build a new application and development center in Karlsruhe, with the goal of strengthening its technological leadership in the field of Advanced Packaging (the combination of various chips into complex systems). Second, even before the earnings report, the stock was already in a correction from its all-time high—the results have so far only slowed this trend, not reversed it. If the analyst consensus is to be believed, this could be a buying opportunity, especially since the AI boom is driving the semiconductor industry and, with it, the demand for precision equipment for lithography, wafer bonding, and photomask processing—all made in Germany. The experts' average price target is EUR 108, which represents upside potential of more than 50%—twice as much as for Amazon.

Volatus Aerospace: The Transformation into an AI Company

An even wider gap between the current share price and the experts' target exists for Volatus Aerospace. Analysts see the stock averaging CAD 1.00—compared to the current level of CAD 0.50, that represents a doubling. The Canadian drone specialist recently reported revenue of CAD 8.42 million for the period from early April to late June—a 49.5% increase from the previous quarter, driven by a 59% rise in services and a 38% increase in equipment deliveries. Although the company is in better financial shape than ever before, the stock actually reacted negatively to the quarterly report. The reason: compared to the same period last year, revenue had declined by about 20% because a defense contract worth CAD 2.6 million could not be delivered on time by the June 30 deadline due to supply chain issues. This by no means means that the revenue is lost—it will simply be recognized later. After a few days of sharp price fluctuations, it has stabilized at around CAD 0.50 (EUR 0.32 on German exchanges)—still a good 40% below the 52-week high of CAD 0.89.

What matters more at Volatus than the mere snapshot is the direction of its transformation—and this is where the real parallel to Amazon lies. Just as the cloud giant invests billions of USD in data center infrastructure before it becomes operationally profitable, Volatus is consistently investing in its transformation from a traditional drone service provider into an integrated AI-based aerospace and defense platform with its own software. At the heart of this is the SaaS platform SKYDRA for planning drone defense operations, as well as the AI-based flight controller V-CORTEX, which enables drones to navigate even without a GPS signal—a feature of high military relevance. This is complemented by the approximately 53,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Mirabel, near Montreal, which opened in June and is expected to offer revenue potential of up to CAD 250 million at full capacity—a multiple of current revenues.

As with Amazon, the restructuring is initially costing the company a noticeable amount of money. Operating expenses climbed by 48.4% to CAD 17.0 million in the first half of the year. With CAD 59.2 million in cash and CAD 63.8 million in working capital, the strongest liquidity position in the company's history, the company has the necessary leeway to finance the transformation phase. The tense geopolitical situation is providing a tailwind. Volatus was selected for the second phase of the USD 1.1 billion US Drone Dominance Program and is benefiting from Canada's Defense Industrial Strategy, which provides CAD 6.6 billion in funding to domestic defense manufacturers over 5 years. Analysts' optimism is therefore no coincidence.

Conclusion: 25%, 50% or Even 100% Upside Potential

All three stocks share the same pattern: the market rewards strong operational signals, but quickly turns nervous again — whether due to SUSS MicroTec's cautious guidance or the heavy investments by Amazon and Volatus. There is always something for investors to worry about. Forward-looking investors, however, see the bigger picture: all three companies are investing heavily today to secure tomorrow's growth. And the difference in upside potential is telling. The more established the business model, the more moderate the price potential forecast by analysts — a solid 25% for Amazon, over 50% for SUSS MicroTec, and as much as 100% for Volatus. That reflects the very different stages of development: Amazon is funding its AI ambitions from one of the world's most profitable business models. SUSS MicroTec is financing its future growth from an established, albeit cyclical, core business. Volatus, by contrast, is still in the midst of transforming from an aviation services provider to a software and defense specialist. That means higher risk but also the greatest theoretical upside if the transformation succeeds.