Three stocks, three tests: BMW, Desert Gold and Heidelberg Materials

Heidelberg Materials: Share price surge – will the EUR 180 barrier now fall?

Shares in Heidelberg Materials AG topped the DAX this Wednesday, gaining over 9.5% to EUR 171.50. The stock crossed above its 100-day moving average and is now trading above its averages for the past 20, 50 and 100 trading days. However, it is still down around 22% since the start of the year. The building materials group produces cement, aggregates and ready-mixed concrete, among other products. The quarterly figures are providing a tailwind for the shares. In the third quarter, revenue rose 10% to EUR 6.41 billion. The result from current operations increased by 9% to EUR 1.28 billion. Both figures exceeded market expectations. Europe and North America in particular supported the business. 

The expanded cost-saving programme promises an additional tailwind. The group aims to exceed its existing savings target of EUR 500 million by year-end. A further EUR 300 million is to be added by the end of 2028. Nevertheless, the full-year outlook remains unchanged. For 2026, management expects a result from current operations of between EUR 3.40 billion and EUR 3.65 billion. The share price reaction thus rewards better quarterly figures and improved efficiency.

From a technical perspective, the momentum comes to a stock that had previously been under considerable pressure. Since the beginning of 2023, Heidelberg Materials has followed a pronounced upward trend, gaining significant additional momentum from the end of November 2024. However, the picture changed in early 2026. The sharp sell-off in February was initially followed by stabilisation, with the zone between around EUR 160 and EUR 190 repeatedly serving as a trading range.

The region around EUR 190 in particular repeatedly proved to be resistance. At the same time, interim attempts to regain the key moving averages failed to hold. The recovery attempts in June also failed to deliver a sustained breakthrough. The latest rise therefore carries particular weight. The shares had already shown strength on October 29 and November 2, before the quarterly figures now significantly accelerated the move.

The jump above the 100-day moving average in the region of around EUR 160 improves the starting position. However, this does not yet indicate a confirmed trend reversal. The 200-day moving average at around EUR 174 was then reclaimed in yesterday's trading session. Attention now turns first to the psychologically significant threshold of EUR 180. Above this, the repeatedly contested resistance zone at EUR 190 would be the next target. If the breakout fails, however, the area around EUR 160 will regain importance as potential support. The day's rally thus improves the technical position, but has yet to prove sustainable. What matters now is whether follow-through buying emerges and the strong daily momentum develops into a sustainable recovery.

Desert Gold: The start of production becomes a test 

Desert Gold Ventures is transitioning from gold exploration to its first in-house gold processing. At the Barani East site in Mali, West Africa, commissioning of the gravity processing plant is scheduled for completion by the end of October 2026, with ramp-up in November and initial gold recovery still in the fourth quarter. The plant, with a nominal capacity of 200 tonnes per day, and a 650-kVA generator are now on site; the main access road has also been reinforced with surfacing material, mitigating a significant logistical uncertainty.

The timetable from the start of the year was pushed back by around three to four months compared with the original target. The reasons were delays in sea freight, fuel and material shortages, limited capacity among the required service providers, and the rainy season, which washed out entire stretches of road along the access route. For investors, the key point now is that the planned first gold pour is a technical milestone on which commercial production is to be built. To this end, following ramp-up, the planned throughput rates, gold recovery rate, plant availability, costs, etc. must be evaluated and assessed accordingly.  

The resource base of the 440 km² SMSZ project is substantial. Desert Gold reports 336,800 ounces of measured and indicated gold resources and 879,900 ounces of inferred gold resources. A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) from November 2025 envisages a long-term open-pit operation at Barani and Gourbassi with daily throughput of around 1,200 tonnes and carbon-in-leach processing. This scenario differs significantly from the small 200-tonne plant now built and requires additional technical work, permits and financing. A positive factor is the expansion option available in principle, which is intended to finance the next stage of expansion with cash flow from forthcoming gold sales. Among the matters still outstanding is the hydrological report. Three out of four boreholes delivered water flow rates of 24, 9 and 8 m³ per hour to enable operation of the 200-tonne plant. 

Also positive is GBC's confirmed Buy recommendation with a price target of CAD 0.93 (EUR 0.59) by the end of 2027. The valuation is based on an intrinsic project value of USD 244.8 million (approximately EUR 217 million). This compares with a recent share price of just CAD 0.135 (EUR 0.079). Above all, the difference signals the great importance of a successful production ramp-up and further development in narrowing the substantial valuation gap.

BMW: Shares rise despite profit warning – will the EUR 60 level now hold?

Shares in Bayerische Motoren Werke AG posted strong gains this week despite a lowered full-year forecast. On Xetra, the stock has risen 5.50% since Wednesday to EUR 60.90 at last count. This took it above the psychologically important EUR 60 mark. Nevertheless, the share is down 37% since the start of the year. Over 52 weeks, the decline amounts to 24%. 

The Munich-based automaker achieved an operating margin of 3.4% in its automotive division in the third quarter. While this is below the previous year's 5.2%, it exceeds the 3.1% expected by analysts. Group profit before tax fell 10.6% to EUR 2.08 billion. Revenue fell 5.8% to EUR 30.45 billion. The better-than-expected quarterly margin helps explain the positive share price reaction.

However, this does not mean the all-clear. As early as Tuesday evening, BMW lowered its expected automotive margin for 2026 from 1 to 3% to −0.5 to +0.5%. Additional portfolio and structural measures are weighing on the final quarter. Before these measures, the group still expects an operating margin above 2%. The forecast for free cash flow in the automotive division also remains above EUR 2.5 billion.

Earnings quality also warrants a closer look. The quarterly margin benefited from an agreement with a supplier related to the braking system warranty case. At the same time, China remains challenging: sales there slumped by a quarter in the third quarter. Growth in Europe and the US could only partly offset this. The share price reaction can therefore be understood as relief over the quarterly results; the structural problems thus remain unresolved. 

From a technical perspective, the picture has brightened since mid-October. The share is now trading above its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. It had repeatedly found support between EUR 60 and EUR 61 in June, July and August. After the subsequent break below it, this former support zone became a barrier to a recovery. Buyers must now defend the reclaimed area. A drop back below EUR 60 would significantly weaken the latest breakout. Above that, the initial focus shifts to the area between EUR 62 and EUR 63. The EUR 63 to EUR 64 zone is particularly crucial: several attempts failed there in September. The previous low from April 2025 near EUR 63 is also in play. A sustained breakout would open the way to the round EUR 65 mark, which had already stood out as support in November 2024. 

Nevertheless, a longer-term trend reversal remains challenging. The 200-day moving average lies in the EUR 69 to EUR 70 area, well above the current price. BMW must overcome several resistance levels before reaching it. The key factors are initial stabilisation above EUR 60 over the coming trading days, followed by convincing follow-through buying above the EUR 63 to EUR 64 zone.

Conclusion

Heidelberg Materials is benefiting from strong quarterly figures and savings targets. Above EUR 174, the technical picture has also brightened further, while EUR 160 is regarded as key support.

Desert Gold is set to move into gold processing in Mali, but after the gold pour scheduled for the end of December, its next task is to demonstrate the corresponding metrics for throughput, recovery, costs and water supply.

BMW is impressing in the short term with a better-than-expected margin, but the lowered full-year forecast and weakness in China make any recovery above the EUR 60 mark fragile.