October 26th, 2026 | 05:24 CET
Gold below USD 4,000: Opportunities at Newmont, Phenom Resources and Agnico Eagle
"Bears want to see the USD 4,000 mark", one analyst wrote last week. That is exactly what happened to gold, which ended the past week just below the psychological threshold. For technical analysts, this is no disaster, but it is weighing on sentiment in the gold sector. However, not all shares followed the move. Some stocks are now showing relative strength against the gold price. For investors with a long-term investment horizon, short-term declines may matter less. Most bank analysts share this view. Strategic investors, meanwhile, are using the lower prices to increase their holdings substantially. For example, the People's Bank of China recently purchased 26 tonnes of gold for its reserves. Against this backdrop, we take a closer look at the shares of global industry leader Newmont, Phenom Resources and Agnico Eagle.
time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Tarik Dede
ISIN: Phenom Resources Corp | CA71743P1071 , AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD. | CA0084741085 , NEWMONT CORP. | US6516391066
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Author
Tarik Dede
Even as a high school student in northern Germany, he developed a strong interest in the “Neuer Markt” and the dynamics of the equity markets. Small- and mid-cap companies were at the center of his focus from the very beginning. After completing his training as a certified bank clerk, he deepened his economic expertise through formal studies in economics as well as through various positions within Frankfurt’s financial sector. Today, he has been actively involved in the capital markets for more than 25 years, both professionally and as a private investor.
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Newmont delivers
Global market leader Newmont was the first major gold miner to release its third-quarter results. And they were very solid despite the lower gold price. Earnings per share reached USD 2.20, well above analysts' estimate of USD 1.96. Net profit reached USD 2.5 billion, while free cash flow was a strong USD 1.9 billion. In addition, the company reported higher-than-planned silver production. This enabled Newmont to cut its cost guidance for 2026 significantly from USD 1,680 per ounce to USD 1,520 (AISC).
The figures are an indicator of developments in the industry. The world's largest gold producer is currently piling up dollar bills. The quarter ended with a cash balance of USD 8.8 billion and total liquidity of USD 12.8 billion. In the third quarter, a total of USD 1.9 billion was returned to shareholders in dividends and through buybacks. The current buyback programme has a further USD 3.2 billion remaining.
There is therefore naturally speculation in the industry about what Newmont will do with its cash balance. All that is certain so far is that it will pay USD 1.95 billion to Nevada Gold Mines in Q4. Barrick had contributed its own Fourmile project to the joint venture. Speculation points to a major acquisition, with a high-growth producer likely to take priority. This aligns with recent industry criticism from BlackRock's head of mining investments, who argued that many companies are buying back too many shares and investing too little in their future.
Phenom Resources: More than an explorer
Gold market corrections usually hit smaller junior explorers hardest. Their shares are then often sold off indiscriminately. However, Phenom Resources has weathered the slump in gold prices over recent weeks reasonably well. Although the share price is trading at its July low, the shareholder structure still appears healthy.
This may also be due to the company's focus. After all, Phenom Resources is more than a junior explorer with one project. The Canadian company also has several gold projects, as well as a vanadium-nickel project in Nevada. It also owns its own processing technology. Investors therefore have the opportunity to profit over the long term from the success of one or more projects.
The focus is currently on the Dobbin gold project. Geologically, it is a typical Carlin-type gold system, as is often found in this region. Deposits of this type often extend over large areas and have higher gold grades at depth. The existing gold mines in the surrounding area also show this, which is likely why gold and silver producer SSR Mining acquired a 15% stake in the project and now holds around 15% of the company's shares.
Phenom Resources strengthened its cash position by USD 4 million through the sale of the project stake and launched a drilling programme in July. Up to 26 core drill holes are planned at Dobbin. The company is also conducting surface chip sampling, which involves collecting rock samples for analysis.
The nickel-vanadium project near the town of Carlin is also noteworthy. It hosts a near-surface vanadium deposit extending approximately 60 metres from the surface. According to the company, it represents the largest and highest-grade primary vanadium resource in North America. The existing mineral resource under NI 43-101 comprises 303 million pounds of vanadium oxide at a cut-off grade of 0.3% vanadium pentoxide (indicated). In addition, the deposit contains an inferred resource of 75 million pounds of vanadium pentoxide. Phenom Resources intends to extract the material by open-pit mining and process it itself. A deeper gold system is suspected beneath and alongside the deposit. Given geopolitical disputes between the US, China and other countries, this project could play a major strategic role because of its critical metals.
This offers investors an opportunity to get in relatively early. Phenom Resources' market capitalisation is currently just CAD 45 million.
Agnico Eagle: Investing in critical metals
Agnico Eagle is one of the world's largest gold producers. But the Toronto-based group established its subsidiary Avenir Minerals several years ago. The aim is to bring together a portfolio of projects outside the core business and potentially benefit from corresponding trends over the long term. The company's initial capital is a solid CAD 130 million. That is enough to make a difference in the market.
Existing investments include Perpetua Resources with its Stibnite gold and antimony project in Idaho. It also holds a stake of more than 10% in Canada Nickel, which is developing the Crawford nickel and cobalt project in Ontario. Now Agnico has also gained a foot in the door at W2 Critical Metals. The company is a spin-out from White Gold that brings together critical metals projects. However, W2 is not yet listed on the stock exchange. Agnico has secured the right to increase its stake to as much as 19.9%. W2 clearly holds some significance, as Agnico has also secured a seat on the board.
Agnico's share price has recently fallen along with the gold price, but is still trading well above the July lows. The Canadian company's eagerly awaited Q3 results will be published on Wednesday, October 28. As with Newmont, the market is likely to focus primarily on cost developments.
Conclusion
With industry leader Newmont, investors are backing a cash-rich group that could potentially become active in the takeover market. Phenom Resources still attracts little market attention and could offer an attractive entry opportunity at its current low valuation. At Agnico, all eyes are on the Q3 figures coming this Wednesday.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
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