Defence Upside and Multi-Bagger Potential! TKMS, Heidelberger Druckmaschinen, and Antimony Resources

TKMS: The clock is ticking

Analysts at mwb research view TKMS as an undervalued defence stock. The backdrop is the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, with an expected contract volume of more than CAD 12 billion and estimated lifecycle costs of over CAD 60 billion. Analysts expect a decision to be made before the NATO summit on July 7 and 8 in Ankara. From mwb's perspective, a contract award for TKMS would be far more than just a major order. It would reinforce the company's position as a leading NATO supplier of conventional submarines, extend the visibility of its order backlog into the 2040s, and expand the 212CD ecosystem beyond Germany and Norway into North America.

Hanwha of South Korea is considered the main competitor. Its key selling point is a faster delivery schedule, which carries significant weight given Canada's time constraints. Nevertheless, mwb sees TKMS as having the advantage. For Canada, as a NATO member, the main factors in its favour are interoperability, shared training and maintenance structures, and long-term integration into North Atlantic defence structures. While management estimates the odds at 50:50, according to mwb, analysts put the probability of TKMS's success at 70%. Even if the company were to lose the bidding process, they consider a fair value of around EUR 100 to be justified on a fundamental basis. The investment rating therefore remains "Buy" with a price target of EUR 125. Currently, TKMS shares are in a downtrend, trading at around EUR 75.

Forecasts for the coming years also show that TKMS is on a growth trajectory. For 2026, mwb expects TKMS to generate revenue of EUR 2.27 billion and EBITDA of EUR 233 million. In 2027, revenue is projected to climb to EUR 2.54 billion and EBITDA to EUR 278 million. For 2028, analysts anticipate further increases in revenue to EUR 2.86 billion and EBITDA to EUR 344 million. Earnings per share are expected to rise from EUR 1.84 this year to EUR 2.60 by 2028.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen: mwb Recommends Buying, But...

Following Heidelberger Druckmaschinen's profit warning, mwb research has slightly adjusted its estimates. For the years 2026 through 2028, analysts expect moderate revenue growth and a significantly stronger earnings trend. Revenue is expected to rise from EUR 2.32 billion in 2026 to EUR 2.39 billion in 2027 and EUR 2.43 billion in 2028. For EBITDA, mwb anticipates an increase from EUR 169 million to EUR 188 million during the same period, followed by EUR 204 million. Earnings per share are expected to improve from EUR 0.15 in 2026 to EUR 0.21 in 2027 and EUR 0.25 in 2028.

Overall, mwb reaffirms its "Buy" recommendation. The price target was slightly reduced from EUR 2.60 to EUR 2.50. The stock has lost about 25% of its value this year and is currently trading at around EUR 1.53. Defence-related speculation is the driving force behind mwb research's "Buy" recommendation for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen shares. And this is not yet factored into the estimates.

Analysts view the new agreement by ONBERG Autonomous Systems as a key strategic building block for defence-related speculation at Heidelberger. ONBERG, in which Heidelberger holds a 49% stake, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Ukrainian drone specialist Skyeton at the ILA Berlin 2026. The goal is to scale up the production of NATO-compliant unmanned aerial systems in Europe. This will combine Skyeton's battle-tested Raybird reconnaissance platform with Heidelberger's industrial manufacturing expertise in Germany. Although the agreement does not yet include financial details, production volumes, or margin parameters, analysts view it as a significant step toward long-term positioning in the European defence market.

From mwb's perspective, the cooperation aligns strategically with the broader trend of integrating Ukrainian drone technology into the Western defence industry. Skyeton contributes operational experience and a modular long-range reconnaissance drone, while ONBERG offers scalable manufacturing structures, electronics expertise, and access to Heidelberger's precision technology. Of particular interest is the planned integration of the Raybird platform with HDAT's large unmanned ground vehicle for testing in Ukraine, which points to a broader roadmap for autonomous systems. As a result, analysts view Heidelberger's defence story as increasingly evolving from a mere option to a potential structural growth driver.

Antimony Resources and the Critical Raw Material

Antimony is one of the raw materials that is increasingly coming into focus in Western security and defence policy. The metal is used, among other things, in alloys, specialty applications, flame retardants, and military-related components. The defence industry needs antimony for ammunition, in ignition and pyrotechnic components, as well as in flame retardants for vehicles, aircraft, electronics, and protective materials. The raw material is even relevant for infrared and night-vision systems. The problem: Supply is tight. China dominates the market and repeatedly restricts exports. This is precisely why projects in secure jurisdictions like Canada are gaining strategic importance. And this is exactly where investors could benefit by holding shares of Antimony Resources.

With the Bald Hill project in southern New Brunswick, Canada, the company appears to have struck gold. Bald Hill is considered a well-known, high-grade antimony deposit and, based on current data, could rank among the highest-grade antimony projects in North America. In the main zone, mineralization has already been delineated over approximately 600 m and to a depth of at least 350 m. The NI 43-101-compliant technical report from 2025 describes a conceptual exploration target of approximately 2.7 million metric tonnes grading 3% to 4% antimony for the target area drilled to date. The main zone remains open in all directions.

The latest drill results underscore this potential. Last Tuesday, Antimony Resources once again reported massive antimony-bearing stibnite mineralization in the main zone, with intersections in all drill holes. Stibnite is a naturally occurring antimony sulphide mineral that is considered the most important ore source for antimony extraction. Particularly notable are peak grades of up to 36.0% antimony in drill hole BHW-26-04 and 27.0% antimony in drill hole BH-26-15. In addition to the high individual grades, the mineralization thicknesses are also noteworthy. The intervals extend up to 13.2 m, with mineralization identified at depths of up to 240 m.

According to CEO James Atkinson, several drill holes in the northern and southern parts of the main zone were aimed at testing the continuity of the mineralization. The so-called shear holes BHW-26-03 and BHW-26-04 intersected the main zone from the west and successfully extended the known antimony mineralization to the south.

A drilling program covering more than 18,000 m is currently underway, aimed at extending the main zone to the north, south, and at depth. In addition, new zones are coming into focus, including the Central Zone, where more than 1,500 m have already been drilled. This could allow Bald Hill to gain further substance in the coming months and potentially provide additional momentum for the stock. Analysts at GBC Research see a price target of CAD 3. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.73, representing a gain of about 37% so far this year.

Antimony is not only critical for the defence industry. To profit from this, Antimony Resources shares are an exciting option. The news flow is positive, and analysts believe the stock is capable of significantly higher prices. Analysts are also bullish on Heidelberger Druckmaschinen. However, this is not the first time the company has revised its forecasts downward. TKMS is likely among the most undervalued European defence stocks. However, the complexity of shipbuilding should not be underestimated.