Allied Raw Materials and the Battle for a Turnaround: adesso, INDUS, Strategic Resources

adesso Shares Jump 6%: Is the Comeback Starting Now?

 adesso shares continue their recovery of the past few trading days. On Wednesday, October 7, the stock gained 6.2% on Xetra and rose further to EUR 64.10 by Friday. The price is therefore back just above the important 200-day moving average, which stands at around EUR 62.20 on the daily chart. This is the first time since January 2026 that the share price has come this close to that line again. Following the sharp price decline since the start of the year, a possible trend reversal is coming into view. Operationally, the IT service provider continues to grow, but still needs to translate this growth into more reliable profits and cash inflows.

In the first half, revenue rose 13% to EUR 794.3 million, almost entirely organically. Operating earnings EBITDA increased by 21% to EUR 45.8 million. However, the quarterly comparison is weaker. In the second quarter, EBITDA fell by 9% year on year to EUR 18.8 million. adesso cited, among other things, lower initial utilisation of its own staff.

In August, the Management Board confirmed full-year revenue of EUR 1.6 to 1.7 billion and EBITDA of EUR 130 to 150 million. Arithmetically, the second half would therefore need to contribute EUR 84.2 to 104.2 million in EBITDA. Achieving the targets thus requires a marked acceleration in earnings. Management is counting on improved utilisation since mid-second quarter and additional working days in the second half.

Financing growth also remains relevant. The bottom line after six months was a Group loss of EUR 7.2 million. Impairments of goodwill and material.one's software platform also weighed on earnings. Operating cash flow improved year on year, but remained negative at minus EUR 28.1 million. Growth therefore continues to tie up capital.

In its AI business, adesso is expanding its offering. The acquisition of omni announced on August 12 is intended to add automated claims processing to the in|sure Ecosphere insurance platform. Simple cases can be fully automated, while the technology supports case handlers with more complex processes. adesso is thus addressing specific efficiency problems faced by its customers. What matters to investors is whether the integration generates additional product revenue and profitable growth.

In the public sector, another contract was added on September 1. The Swiss subsidiary was awarded contracts for the realignment of the EasyGov administrative portal. The framework agreements run for 12 years; the new platform is due to launch in autumn 2027. Revenue and earnings depend on the services actually called off and the project's progress. The contract award thus strengthens the longer-term business outlook, but provides no immediate evidence that the annual targets will be met.

From a technical chart perspective, the starting position has improved somewhat. The shares are trading above the 20-, 50- and 100-day SMA lines. The task now is to sustainably overcome the zone between EUR 62 and 64, which has repeatedly acted as resistance in recent months. The decisive factor remains whether the shares achieve a sustained breakout above this resistance zone and the 200-day moving average at EUR 62.20 running through it.

The next quarterly figures are not due until 11 November. Until then, there is still plenty of time for further share price movements. Utilisation, the earnings contribution and operating cash flow will be particularly important. These metrics will help determine how robust the latest recovery attempt is.

Vanadium Specialist: Strategic Resources at the Start of the Green Steel Supply Chain

Strategic Resources is developing vanadium, titanium and high-purity iron (vanadium-titanium-magnetite, VTM) deposits. With a market capitalisation of around CAD 13 million (approximately EUR 8.2 million), the company is firmly positioned in the small-cap segment (micro caps) – a thin market in which news can sometimes trigger sharp share price jumps.

The company is currently awaiting a response from Québec's environment ministry to further advance the permitting process for the development of the pelletising plant with a capacity of 4 million tonnes per year at the Port Saguenay site. Specifically, this concerns expanding the already approved plant from 1.5 to 4 million tonnes of annual capacity. The site benefits from extremely cheap hydropower at just CAD 0.04 per kilowatt-hour, bringing operating costs down to around USD 16 per tonne. With a currently achievable market price of USD 50 to 55 per tonne, the margin is correspondingly healthy. The 10-year offtake agreement with Javelin Global Commodities also provides a reliable basis for arranging project financing.

In Finland, Strategic Resources is also working to reactivate the former Mustavaara mine, with a vanadium resource base of around 100 million tonnes. On June 23, 2026, the University of Oulu announced the launch of the EUR 17 million “FutSteel” research project, in which Swedish steel group SSAB is also involved. Strategic Resources was selected to supply its vanadium-rich magnetite concentrate from Mustavaara for testing hydrogen-based direct reduction – a building block for fossil-free steel in an electric arc furnace. For European supply chains, a resumption of vanadium extraction would significantly reduce dependence on imports from third countries.

In parallel, the company is pursuing an „ore-to-battery“ approach with its partner Tyfast Energy to establish a closed value chain in Canada extending to the lithium-vanadium-oxide anode (LVO). Such batteries are needed in the heavy-duty and defence sectors, among others, and can be charged in less than 10 minutes, with more than 10,000 possible charging cycles. The latest capital measure of CAD 10 million at CAD 0.25 per share secures ongoing project and development costs beyond the end of the year. While the low valuation barely reflects the existing deposits, the mining infrastructure and the project's strategic position, this remains a typical, not insignificant risk-reward profile in the exploration and development segment.

INDUS Shares Fall 7%: Is the Rally Losing Steam?

 INDUS Holding shares suffered a setback after their rally. On Thursday, October 8, 2026, the stock lost 7.32% in Xetra trading, closed the day at EUR 36.70 and went into the weekend on Friday slightly recovered at EUR 37.80. An analyst downgrade is among the triggers. Following the share price rise, pressure is therefore growing on the investment holding company to justify the high expectations through its operating performance. For investors, the question now is how sustainable the recent earnings increases actually are.

Research firm NuWays lowered its recommendation from „Buy“ to „Hold“, but confirmed its price target of EUR 41.00. The rationale explicitly concerns the valuation. Following a rally of around 60% since July, the shares had already reached the price target. The analysts continue to view the underlying investment case positively. The pullback follows a reassessment of the remaining upside in the share price. For further gains, the business outlook would need to improve more strongly than expectations have so far factored in.

The operating performance is initially impressive. In the first half of 2026, INDUS increased revenue by 15.4% to EUR 965.2 million. Adjusted operating earnings, measured by adjusted EBITA, rose from EUR 56.1 million to EUR 123.5 million. The corresponding margin improved from 6.7% to 12.8%. At the same time, order intake increased by 22.5% to EUR 1,104 million. These figures show that the share price rally was fundamentally supported.

However, a substantial part of the earnings momentum stems from an exceptional raw materials situation. In the Materials Solutions segment, tight tungsten carbide supplies and sharply higher material prices are creating additional revenue and earnings opportunities. INDUS maintained its ability to deliver and won further orders. The key question now is how much of this profitability will remain when prices normalise. The performance of the other holdings is therefore gaining importance, as sustainably viable earnings require several reliable sources of income.

The Management Board already raised its 2026 forecast on July 29. Revenue of EUR 1.90 to 2.10 billion and adjusted EBITA of EUR 220 to 260 million are expected. However, higher material costs tie up additional capital in inventories. In the first half, free cash flow fell to minus EUR 36.9 million. For the full year, it is expected to be at least break-even. The rise in earnings must therefore also translate into an improvement in liquidity so that the Group retains financial headroom for further investment.

From a technical analysis perspective, the pullback is now becoming a test. The shares have fallen below the short-term 20-day moving average at around EUR 39.30 and are approaching the 50-day moving average at about EUR 36.50. If this support holds, stabilisation remains possible. In the event of further losses, the zone around EUR 35.00 comes into focus. For a significant easing of pressure, the shares would first need to reclaim the range between EUR 39.00 and EUR 39.30. The rally is thus weakened. Whether it can continue increasingly depends on margin quality and cash flow.

Conclusion

adesso continues to drive organic growth, but must first provide robust evidence of earnings and cash flow momentum before the share price recovery can become a sustainable trend. Strategic Resources is developing vanadium, titanium and high-purity iron deposits and, with progress on permits and a Finnish hydrogen-based steel project, stands on the threshold of a strategically relevant value chain. INDUS is recording a strong increase in operating earnings, but it is largely driven by tight tungsten carbide supplies and must now prove the sustainability of that growth following the analyst downgrade.